TONY’S TAKE – FIVE THOUGHTS ON BILLS-RAVENS

by Tony Fiorello

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - SEPTEMBER 12: a Buffalo Bills helmet rests on the field before the game between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins on Thursday, September 12, 2024 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

1. For all intents and purposes, that game should have been over. Stick a fork in ‘em, the Bills were done. Yet they didn’t quit and despite having just a 1.1 percent chance to win with 8:37 left in the fourth quarter according to Next Gen Stats, Josh Allen and company engineered a comeback that – while not quite on the scale of Frank Reich’s come-from-behind victory in January of 1993 – is a fitting way to kick off the final season at Highmark Stadium.

2. There were some awfully head-scratching moments by the Bills’ coaching staff throughout the night. Sean McDermott’s unnecessary two-point conversion calls early in the game, Joe Brady’s inability to get explosive plays from his skill position players in most of the second and third quarters and his decision to have a fade ball thrown to Keon Coleman on a critical two-pointer late in the game come to mind. But Bobby Babich, based on his lackluster work a year ago and his inauspicious start to 2024, should firmly be on the hot seat until further notice (that decision to blitz Cole Bishop from nearly 13 yards deep in the third quarter which lead to an explosive play by Zay Flowers – woof). There’s room to correct those decisions, for sure.

3. Schematically, I understand that the Bills are built to defend most NFL teams, including the Kansas City Chiefs. But the way the Ravens play, they’re generally not a good matchup for Buffalo. The Bills’ defensive philosophy from their defensive linemen – getting fast, aggressive penetration – can work against them on gap scheme runs (which Baltimore loves to use). Plus the front seven not winning their matchups at the line of scrimmage which led to them getting killed in light boxes, poor tackling and bad safety play from Bishop and Taylor Rapp – it wasn’t pretty. However, Ed Oliver played the best game of his life – he nearly looked like Aaron Donald out there, if only he could string that effort out over a full season!

4. I’m surprised John Harbaugh decided to punt to Buffalo on fourth and three. Especially given that Buffalo couldn’t stop anything all day – although Lamar Jackson claimed he was suffering from cramps at that time which influenced Harbaugh’s decision-making, I still would have gone for the first down. A handoff to Derrick Henry likely would have done the trick.

5. Unbelievable stats of the night – according to Ben Solak of ESPN, the Baltimore Ravens have lost eight games since 2021 in which they had a win probability of at least 90 percent (three more than the next closest team). And Harbaugh has, since 2008, 17 blown leads of at least double-digit points. Which is more than any coach since 1991!