STONE COLD LOCKS-CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2025 record 47-53

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 510-400-15=56%

MR. OVER/UNDER: First Score FG +300 or first drive each team FG Attempt +330

It’s time that the media stopped making excuses for Josh Allen. Saquon Barkley deserved the MVP award last year, not Josh Allen. Barkley took his team to a Super Bowl victory. It seems the MVP award, which turned out to be more of a popularity contest last year, went to Josh’s head, as the Bill’s finished in their worst playoff position in 7-years. After 8-years in the NFL, Allen still doesn’t understand the importance of getting a first down or that he should throw the ball away, instead of taking 18-yard sacks. Numerous times he had receivers open in the end zone this year, but chose to run the ball. Why? Ego!  Tom Brady hardly ever ran the ball, and neither did Jim Kelly but they took their team to the Super Bowl. Allen has lead the league in QB fumbles more than once. In fact he has at least 15 fumbles in playoff games. 15 The bottom line is,  Josh Allen’s turnovers got Sean McDermott fired. I’m not a McDermott fan, but McDermott told the media years ago that he’s told Allen to, “Hold onto the ball” when running. Smart QB’ listen to their coach, Josh doesn’t.

So now Allen lovers will say it’s not his fault because the team needed better players, especially receivers. These are the same people who said we needed better lineman to protect Josh, and then we needed a better running back to complement Josh. Guess what? When the Bill’s had an outstanding group of receivers and better offensive lineman and a solid running back, Josh Allen still screwed up and lost playoff games at home. Last year, after playing golf around the world, hanging out with Hollywood elite, doing tons of TV commercials, and getting married, Allen came back to Buffalo and complained about fans leaving a Sunday night game early. Josh Allen makes more money, playing one football game, than many Western New Yorkers will make in their lifetime. If a fan might have to leave a night game early because they have to drive to Rochester or Syracuse to work the next day, who the hell does Allen think he is? A spoiled, egotistical QB who can’t wait to get out of Buffalo when the season ends, because of his play. . Bottom line, Josh Allen got the coach that drafted him, fired  Sometimes the truth hurts!

At the beginning of the year I picked the Rams to go to the Super Bowl, Now they’re one game away. Earlier this season the Rams beat Seattle 21-19 at home and lost 38-37 in Seattle. Those two games were decided by a total of 3-points. The first game in LA went under, the second game over. Tough game to pick, but should be fun to watch. You’ve got to feel sorry for Denver losing their starting QB. Seems the Patriots should win easily, right? I’d be willing to bet that most of the country will be rooting for the underdog Broncos. My playoff picks have been poor so far this year, so instead of betting the games, I’m looking at a couple prop bets.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a weapon for Seattle. Against the Rams in the first game this season he had nine catches for 105-yards. In their second game matchup he had 8 catches for 96-yards and a TD. His odds to score a TD in this week’s game is an even bet, that you may want to consider? However, I found a different prop bet that could be very profitable. Both New England and Denver have pretty good defenses, with Denver having the advantage.  We’ve seen too many coaches in these playoffs go for it on 4^th down and either not score, or not get the first down. . In a game like this, it’s smart to get points early. Against a good defense, that might mean having to settle for a field goal instead of a TD. There’s a prop bet for each team in this game, that they’ll “Attempt” a field goal on their first drive. They don’t have to make it, just ATTEMPT it. The odds are +330. With odds like that, I’m betting on both teams to attempt a field goal on their first drive. If you bet the same amount on both teams, and only one of them makes an attempt at a field goal, you’ll still win. However if you can find it, consider making the first score of the game itself, a field goal. Good Luck!

Man in Stripes: Denver +10.5/ Rams +8.5, 6 point teaser

Its Conference Championship weekend..2 wins from raising the Lombardi.. Lets dig in..

NE @ DEN +10.5

 It took about a minute to throw water on the Broncos elation from beating the Bills in OT, when it was found out Bo Nix, broke his ankle, and is out the rest of the post season.. Enter Jarrett Stidham, who hasn't thrown a pass since 2023..The spread went from Den -1.5 to Den +4.5.. A 6 point difference for Bo Nix.. I think that is too big of a over compensation here.. Many in the gambling world are thinking 3-4 pts.. With Nix, the Broncos passing game is bottom third in air yards , yards per completion, they rely on YAC with their receivers... With Stidham , not a lot will change.. Give Sean Payton, an extra day , and I think he will cook up an offense that will control the clock and try to shorten the game vs a Patriots offense that has only scored 3 tds in 2 post season games vs a defense in Denver, that is top 5 this year, in TD rate in red zone, and 3rd down defense.. Over/ under is 41.. Lets tease it over 6,7 , and 10.. At home,in the thin air, the Broncos keep it close.

RAMS +8.5@ SEATTLE

This should be a war!!! 3rd time playing each other.. The stats are amazing close thru their first 2 games:

Points- LAR 58-57

Yards- LAR 830-829

Plays- SEA 142-138

Both teams know the other inside out!!! If not for a miracle Seahawks comeback in Seattle, the Rams would have won both of them!!

Sam Darnold, has been the best story of the season for sure..This is his BIGGEST start in his career, suffering from an oblique.. He's going against the PROBABLY MVP, Matthew Stafford, who owns a ring!!! Lots of weapons on both teams.. Seahawks RB , Zach Charbonney out with an ACL, that will hurt..Thus is a coin flip game.. Sean Mc Vay gives the Rams a coaching advantage, let's tease this one over 3, 6, and 7 to a two score number 8.5..Rams win this one OUTRIGHT!! 

Enjoy the games, stay warm!!!

One for the road:

+125, Brian Daboll, will be the next Buffalo BILLS HC.. What was that at One Bills Dr. on Wednesday??

MONO: Devante Adams Anytime TD +133

This is the time of year we can get a bit creative. This week, we got a +133, going with a Davante Adams anytime TD. Last time these teams played, we got one of if not the best Thursday night game of the year. The Seahawks prevailed, but these 2 combined for 75 points. Adams didn’t play in that one, but he’s back and healthy now and has yet another chance to get to his first Super Bowl. Davante led the league in receiving TDS this year and in his age 33 season, he may not be the high volume target he once was but he’s still a big body in the red zone. I’m expecting the Seahawks defense to key in on Puka and make Davante turn back the clock to beat them. If he finds himself in a one on one situation on the goal line, expect Stafford to throw it up. Take Davante to score a td.

Brutal: Los Angeles Rams @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-2.5) 

  Tough loss last week, but very, very, very glad that Indiana won their first National Championship in football.  This was the only time they have done it since football started in Bloomington in the late 1880's!  Now, if HC Curt Cignetti would just have called an occasional first down pass, the Hoosiers would have won this by two scores and covered the spread.  However, his conservative approach to this game was justified in the end, because it operated on the fateful premise that 8 year college veteran QB Carson Beck ( the Bluto Blutarsky of the NCAA ) would shit the bed under pressure, ..... and he did.  We won big on the Moneyline, but that type of wager is not allowed under the strict rules of Stone Cold Locks.  

  Seattle has been the most consistent, most balanced team all year in the NFL.  The Seahawks' defense

e is a lot better than the Chicago Bears, who almost beat the Rams last week ( but did cover, yeah! ).  These teams split the season series 1-1, but the Seahawks are healthier than the Rams, despite losing one of their keys, running back Zach Charbonnet for the season last week.  Thank goodness they have Kenneth Walker III to run hard at the Los Angeles front seven.  

  QB Sam Darnold is the only major concern; we all know that in the late season his emotional frailty can affect his play.  The self-imposed stress on his cognitive functions can swerve his decision-making into the territory of fragile French figure skating judges, ...... but we have it on good authority that his Ativan dosage has been raised for this game. 

  The Rams were lucky to win in overtime last week in the frigid cold in Chicago; they left exhausted and bruised while the Seahawks rested key personnel during the second half in their blowout win over the 49ers.  The rowdy Soldier Field crowd was raucous, but the Lumen Field horde can be downright rowdy, rampaging and riotous. 

  We just have to win by a field goal at home.  A very tired Rams squad falls on the road to a foe who knows them best. 

  SEATTLE (-2.5)

Bob: Denver +4.5 over New England

My thinking in this one is what would the spread have been if Bo Nix had been playing. Most people I respect think and I agree would be around Denver -2.  So the spread is Denver +4.5, that means that the odds makers want me to believe that the difference between Nix and Jarrett Stidham is 6.5 points or almost a touchdown.  That seems to me like an over reaction. This makes Denver the largest home dog in a conference championship game since the merger. Again, it seems like this is too high.  The Denver defense is still one of the best in football.  The big home field advantage still is in place.  Denver plays close games and they usually win this year the one score games.  I expect this to be a close one and will be happy to take over a field goal.