STONE COLD LOCKS-DIVISIONAL ROUND

By Bob Gaughan

2025 record 47-48

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 510-395-15=56%

MR. OVER/UNDER: Texans + 3 Over New England

How was it that I was able to say the Bills would win last week if they got 2 interceptions (which they did), but I was totally wrong when I thought the Patriots and Chargers would score a lot of points? Speaking of points, every team’s defense allowed at least 19-points last week except Houston and New England, which surrendered a combined total of 9-points.  Both teams are in the top 4 in scoring defense. A Houston win on Sunday will send the Texans to their first AFC Championship game.

There are two outdoor games this week in which the weather could play a factor. It’s going to be cold in Chicago and, as of today, (Thursday) the Foxboro forecast calls for snow. Surprisingly the nicest weather for this weekend’s games might be in Denver, where the Bills face the Broncos in the playoffs, for the second year in a row. This could come down to whoever has the ball last, as Denver won 11-games this year by one-score or less. Meanwhile the Seahawks scored only 13-points in both games against the 49ers this year, losing 17-13 and winning 13-3. The Rams lead the league this year in yards and points, but both the Bears and Rams are in the top 5 in takeaways. The question for this game might be, how many punts will there be?

I’m going to play a 2-team teaser this week with the Bills and Houston, but my pick of the week is Houston +3.  It won’t be as cold in Foxboro, as it will in Chicago, but colder weather usually favors the defense and Houston has the better defense. It’s tough to win on the road in the playoffs, but how many times have we heard, “Defense wins championships”. C.J. Stroud had 3 turnovers last week, 2 fumbles and an interception. The Texans can’t afford that kind of play from their QB if they expect to win. Hopefully he’ll learn from those mistakes and his defense will be the one that creates turnovers. Maye is the better QB in this game, but he’s just one player and Houston’s defense has better players than New England’s offense. Take the Texans +3.

Man in Stripes: HOUST/ NE UNDER 20.5 1H

Almost seems too easy on this one.. And you know when things are TOO EAST, what normally happens.. We will go ahead anyways..2 Top 5 defenses, 2 teams that struggled mightly on offense last week.. The Texans are 8-1 to the first half under on the road this year, averaging under 15 points in furst have totals..16-6 to game under L 22..CJ Stroud on the road is a different QB,averaging 17 points on the road for his career..And he was awful last week, got bailed out by the Texans D..Throw in some big offensive injuries to WR - Niko Collins, Justin Watson of Houston and to TE Hunter Henry of the Pats, all of whom are questionable.. I look for alot of running early in game, click runs, and points are at a premium.. The second half and especially the 4th qtrs have been nuts this post season.. So eliminating that, makes the first half under the play in the  cold of Foxborough.. 

Maybe sprinkle some on Texans TT under 19.5.

Some others for the weekend:

Bills ML - IN JOSH WE TRUST!!

Bears +10/ over 42 , 6 point teaser..

Miami +8.5.. The home dog at home!!! Sprinkle a little on the Canes ML.. They are LIVE IN THIS GAME!!

Good luck and enjoy the games!!

MONO: 49ers +7 over Seattle

The Panthers almost pulled it off. What an opening wild card weekend except for those late games Sunday and Monday. Another banger of a card set up for this weekend. There’s a divisional showdown that I have my eyes on. The 9ers travel to Seattle to take on the NFC west champs. These 2 split the season series, winning both games in each others stadium. The 9ers are battered but it’s the playoffs and who isn’t. My angle here is Sam Darnold. Until he does it in January, I’m not going to buy it. He did the same thing in Minnesota and shit the bed. A full touchdown in this spot is too many points. These teams are familiar with each other and the pressure couldn’t be higher. They keep it close and have a chance to win the game late. Take the Niners +7.

Brutal:  #10 Miami vs. #1 INDIANA (-7.5) 

Normally, I self-impose, not betting on the same team for two weeks in a row within the context of this weekly exercise.  This year I am making an exception.  We rode the Hoosiers to easy victory last week with their annihilation of the Oregon Ducks because we thought it was the best pick of the week.  It was so good that Bob Gaughan and I doubled down on this pick; the first time we have done that in several years.  However, one of us has to break this unwritten consecutive week rule because this is the National Championship, and every year we pick this game for Stone Cold Locks.  Regardless, like their last two games, I think this game is already over and Indiana is the National Champion!  I bought this game at (-6.5), it is risen fast to 7, 7.5, 8, and 8.5 before backing off.  If you want a better line on Indiana, wait till Sunday or Monday, that is when the Miami money normally comes in and the line might dip again so you can bet Indiana, but you will have to be quick! .... and monitor the situation. 

• I do not care that this game is in Miami.  For decades the "U" couldn't draw 30% capacity crowds at their home games.  Why? .... Because most South Florida sports fans (Professional & College), are frontrunners, bandwagon-jumpers and fashion conscious apathetics.  There is a ton of Hoosier money coming out of the woodwork to buy up these secondary market tickets, so expect a big Indiana crowd in Miami ( and if you know anything about the stereotypical cheapness of people from the Hoosier State ( somewhere on the Mizer Scale between Scrooge McDuck and Mr. Krabs ), you realize how amazing it is that they are buying up so many tickets for thousands of dollars each!  Indiana has huge fan support and Midwest Karma is flowing going into this game.   

• We do not care that QB Carson Beck has experience in this, his 12th year of professional-college football.  He is not that good, the Heisman Trophy winner is leading the other side. 

• We do not care that our coach is despised by the powers of college football because he is a born maverick who has remained true to himself.  Curt Cignetti has been on the national stage for only two years.  He is 64 years old!  He waited a long time for this moment. 

• We do not care that money is flooding in on Indiana, ( 85% of the betting total so far ), making Vegas nervous.  Shades of imbalanced bookmaker banks like the Bears, getting all the money in their Super Bowl win over New England and the sports books taking a beating.  On the winning side, the bookmakers made that back on the first Tommy Hearns-Sugar Ray Leonard fight when millions of dollars of Detroit money flooded the casinos to bet on hometown hero and unfortunate loser, Hearns.  Sadly, a lot of Detroiters took out mortgages to bet on him in this fight. We are with the big money momentum favourite in the National Championship, but we do not care. 

• We do not care that Miami like Nebraska and Oregon has five times the number of four & five star high school recruits than Indiana.  The Hurricane lines are stronger than Alabama and Oregon, but the Miami offence is much weaker than either of them.  Indiana will probably have the time of possession battle won by the end of the first half. 

• We do care that Indiana wins so that we do not have to hear every insufferable alumnus of the "U" on ESPN go on and on about the glory years, ...... and the image of the football program ... and how important the "U" is to college football, .... blah, blah, blah, .... Michael Irvin, Jimmy Johnson, Ray ( Edged Weapons Specialist )Lewis, etc.

• I cannot believe that we are in cahoots with two ex-vice presidents, Dan Quayle and Mike Pence on this pick, because this is no place for second best subservient outcomes.  Indiana, the team with the most losses in the history of college football, ...... in a walk.

Bob: Chicago/ Rams Over 48

The Rams come in with a great offense all year behind player of the year candidate Matt Stafford. Stafford threw for over 4700 yards and had an impressive 46-8 TD to INT ratio. The offense is balanced behind Williams and Corkum running the ball.  These two ran for a combined 1998 yards this year.  McVay is an offensive genius calling the plays. Ben Johnson is right behind McVay as a play caller. The Rams defense has given up points recently.  The Panthers scored 31 last week.  Chicago has a solid offense with big play performers starting with QB Caleb Williams. Williams has solid receiving threats in Moore, Odunze and TE Loveland.  The Rams have shown the ability to score on the road.  The over has hit in the last six Rams road games. The weather is a little concerning but the bottom line is we like both offenses, like both play callers and don’t respect both defenses.  Let’s go with the over 48.