STONE COLD LOCKS-THANKSGIVING EDITION

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2025 record 30-30

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 493-377-15=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER:  7-point Teaser Chargers -1.5/ Seahawks -3.5

The NFL is back to its’ 16-game weekly schedule, with 3 games on Thanksgiving and one the day after.  It’s also time to start watching the weather at certain outdoor stadiums. As I write this on Wednesday, the forecast for Pittsburgh Sunday is an 80% chance of snow or rain. There’s over a 60% chance of showers for the Eagles game plus rain, snow and wind predicted for Cleveland, so beware. Of course this could change….and get worse!

For the first time since I can remember, after 12-weeks, more games have gone under than over, at this point of the season in the NFL. Each of the last 2-weeks, only 4-games have gone over. This past decade the NFL has made rule changes in an effort to promote scoring. In order to be more competitive, teams have countered with creating stronger defenses, which you may have seen in the Houston/Bills game last week. Last week teams were getting 13  and 14 points. The Giants were getting 12.5 points and took Detroit to overtime. This week the highest spread is 10.5.

I have two games this week that I feel very confident about, which is why I’m going back to a 2-team 7-point teaser parley. Confidence can be over rated when it comes to betting, so I’d rather win and get less than lose and get nothing. I’m headed out west going with the Chargers and Seattle. The Raiders and Chargers have the two worst offensive lines in the NFL. Las Vegas with their  31^st ranked offense,  fired their OC Chip Kelly and replaced him with Greg Olson. The Chargers are 10^th in sacks with 27 and are home coming off a bye. The Chargers should win this outright at -8.5, but I feel much better getting 7 additional points, and making the spread -1.5

Who is Max Brosmer you ask? He may be the starting rookie at QB if J.J. McCarthy can’t start for Minnesota, due to a concussion. The Seahawks have shown they’re a playoff contender and Seattle is a very hostile environment to play in. The Viking’s offensive line is a liability. Seattle should also win this one outright at -10.5, but bringing the odds down to -3.5 builds my confidence. .I’m parleying the Chargers at -1.5 with the Seahawks at -3.5.  

Man in Stripes: 6 point teaser-Bills +2.5/ Chargers -2.5

On this Thanksgiving long weekend we have lots to be thankful for.. Family, friends  , good health, and a great weekend of football! We will head to the late window on Sunday.. Hold your nose, I know the Bills looked bad on Thursday  in  Houston, JA17 running for his life.. Offense seems broken.. Looks like the AFC East is out of play.. All that said, Sean Mc Dermitt  , as most know not my favorite coach in the NFL, is very good in this spot.. The mini bye off a loss.. MUST WIN for the Bills .. Aaron Rodgers coming back , but Steelers D is not what it used to be..Bills have the rest advantage , just seems like too soon to bury the Bills yet.... Allen and Co do enough to beat the Steelers..

As for the other late game.. Is there a worse team right now than the Vegas Raiders.. Losing by 2 TDs at home to Shadeur Sanders in his first start ever!! Looking like they are mailing it in.. Chargers off bye , healthy as they have been all season , in the playoffs picture.. Herbert puts up a big number on the Raiders.. Easily covering 2.5..

Some other leftovers

Iowa -6.5

Jets ML

TB -3

Cleve+6

Navy/ Memphis over 57.5

Miss st +7.5

MONO: Missouri -2.5 Over Arkansas

Happy turkey day. Gotta string a few wins together to save a bad year. It’s rivalry week and there’s some good spots, tough ones as well. We’re going back to the well with Missouri and taking em -2.5 @ Arkansas. Missouri had chance after chance last week to sneak a garbage time touchdown and cover, but that Sooners defense just wouldn’t budge. Beau Pribula is back under center for the 2nd straight week for the Tigers and after running for his life all day, he gets rewarded with a bounce back spot against the worst defense in the SEC. I’m expecting Missouri to control the clock with their run game and add in a few explosives through the air. Arkansas is losers of 9 straight and although they’ve been competitive in a few of those, this team just can’t wait for the season to end. They were blown out by Texas last week and made Arch Manning actually look pretty good. This line is short which may be a little fishy, but nobody can confidently back a 2-9 Arkansas team and I don’t want to overthink it. Take Missouri to win and cover. 

Brutal:    Boise State (-3.5) @ UTAH STATE  OVER 54.5

  UTAH STATE averages 30 points a game, Boise averages 29, ........the Aggies have only scored under 20 once, and that was 14 points in Albuquerque, losing to the tough defense of New Mexico.  In the rest of their games they got into shooting matches and always put up big yardage even if they lost on the scoreboard.  The Broncos have struggled to score against really good defensive teams like South Florida, Notre Dame, San Diego State and Fresno State.  The rest of their games were wins, and they averaged 50 points against these poorer defenses.  Well, neither Utah State or Boise have great defenses and they are playing each other.  These two teams should both exceed their points per game average and that should put us well over 54.5 points. 

  I also like UTAH STATE here getting 3 and the hook at home and so I will be making a smaller investment on both the spread and the money-line.  However, the big play here is going over the total.  According to the Utah State Weather Bureau, game time temperature in Logan will be 47 degrees, negligible wind and zero precipitation.  Perfect conditions for a shootout with the Mountain West title possibly on the line. 

Bob: Kentucky +3 Over Louisville

Two teams heading in different directions meet for a rivalry game. Kentucky has won three of their last four games. Kentucky comes into this game at 5-6 so they need a win to become bowl eligible. I expect a good effort from the Wildcats. Louisville on the other hand has lost three straight.A once promising 7-1 season seems long ago. Kentucky has also played a much tougher schedule. So I get the hotter team that needs it more,  has played the tougher schedule and getting three points in a rivalry game.  Let’s take it!