STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 1

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2025 record 0-0

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 463-347-15=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER: Rams -2.5 over Houston

WELCOME BACK!  I say it every year. Weeks 1 & 18 are the two toughest weeks to pick in the NFL. Normally defenses have the advantage in the first 3-4 weeks of the season, although last year in week #1, nine games went over. However, in week #2 only 5 games went over and in week 3 only 6 games went over. Also last year, 13 of the favorites won in the first week. I would be surprised to see that many favorites win this week, as 11 games have a spread of 3-points or less. 

I was going to take Denver this week, but the odds have gone form -7 to -8.5. It’s a solid moneyline bet, but the odds are too much for week one. However, at 42.5, with Denver’s defense. I do like the under.

However, my pick of the week is the L.A. Rams. As long at Matthew Stafford stays healthy, this team will contend for the conference championship. They’ve got fire power on offense and a solid defense. Their schedule is rated the 13^th most difficult, based on last year’s teams records. But schedule timing, weather and injuries always play havoc with things based on the previous year. The Rams are home against a Houston team whose offensive line is not as good as LA’s defensive line. Take the Rams -2.5.   

Man in Stripes:  Ravens +7.5/ over 44.5, 6-point teaser

Welcome to the 2025 football season. We had a nice season last year, but as we all know, you are as good as your last pick. Let's make some money!!!

Let's not overthink this. The Ravens outplayed and probably should have won the playoff game here in Buffalo last January. They outgained the Bills by 150 yards, they are coming in here with a chip on their shoulder, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and Co. It's Super Bowl appearance OR BUST for the Bills!!! Unfortunately, the Bills D and mainly their secondary is very banged up, starting their 4th and 5th depth players.  Shakir coming back from a high ankle sprain, it might be JA17 vs the world!! We will tease this over the key number of 7, this game will be close!!!!! And there will be points in this game. I'll be at the last home opener ever at the Ralph. Let's start it off with a winner!! Good luck and enjoy your football weekend!!!

Mono: Iowa +3.5 @ Iowa state.

This Iowa State team is off to a hot start with a sloppy win over K-State a couple of weeks ago and a blowout last week of South Dakota. Rocco Becht hasn’t missed a beat after losing his top targets to the NFL and the Cyclones will likely be in the mix for a playoff spot if they can win the Big 12. Their win over K State hasn’t aged well as the Wildcats needed a 2 min drive to beat an FCS school last week. That’s nothing against the Cyclones, but in a rivalry game I have to take the field goal, especially with a hook available at the moment. Iowa has won 5 of the last 7 in this series and although Iowa State won last year, it was by a single point. These teams know each other very well and I don’t expect any surprises nor blowouts. Iowa States defense is good. So is Iowa’s. Iowa State has the advantage under center and on the offensive side of the ball, but Iowa will try and control the clock and run the ball. This one will be low scoring and potentially boring, but the Hawkeyes keep it within the number. Take Iowa +3.5. 

Brutal:   Kennesaw State +36.5 over Indiana

When in the history of football has Indiana been a 36-point favorite over anyone. Not when the recently retired Lee Corso was head coach, not when Bill Mallory was head coach and they shouldn’t be favored by that much today. Let’s not forget our good Canadian QB Rourke is no longer the QB for the Hoosiers.  Dexter Williams his replacement was only 12 of 33 for 149 yards last week. Indiana didn’t look great by beating a poor Old Dominion team by only 13.  Kennesaw “Mountain Landis” State hung last week with Wake Forest and only lost 10-9. That wasn’t a fluke either; Kennesaw had nearly as many first downs and yards in Winston Salem. This is a principal pick. Let’s take the Owls from Georgia to keep it within five touchdowns against the Hoosiers.

Bob: Denver -8.5 over Tennessee

I’m sure you’ve heard this but week one is the toughest week to bet. Not having seen these teams play is difficult because the pre-season games are meaningless. So, let's go with an age old, trusted theory.  That is the first road start for a rookie quarterback is usually tough. It is made especially tough when going up against one of the best defenses in football.  For my money the Denver defense is going to be the best this year.  A good defense got better with the key additions of LB Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga. So,

I have a rookie QB going up against the best defense in football on the road in a tough environment.  Seems like a shot we need to take.  Not to mention I expect better things from Bo Nix this year in the second year in Sean Payton’s system.  Count me in the club that thinks that Denver can wrestle the AFC West division away from Kansas City this year.