STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 1

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2026 Record 0-0

2025 record 56-55

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 521-403-15=56%

MR. OVER/UNDER: COWBOYS -2.5 Over GIANTS

 WELCOME BACK!   I say it every year. Week’s one and eighteen are the two most difficult weeks to pick winners in the NFL. The tendency in week one is to go with a quality team from the previous year that you think has gotten better. Not a bad theory, but if you look at Wednesday’s game in Seattle, did anyone plan on those injuries to Darnold and Brown? Plus for many starters, week one is their first game action of the year.     

The general consensus of NFL betting is, that during the first 2 to 3-weeks of betting, the defense has the advantage. Offense depends more on timing and since many starters don’t play in the preseason, the timing is not as crisp as it should be early in the season.

The O/U for that Seattle/ New England game was 44.5. The teams scored 23. Last year in week one, 12 of the 16 games went under. The O/U for the Bills/Texans game started at 49.5. Now it’s down to 44.5. If you tease the under by 6 or 7 points this week, you’re almost sure to win. Also watch out for spreads of 3.5 and 7.5 if you like the favorites. That half-point in the beginning of the season can be a killer. As of today Thursday, Baltimore is -3.5. If it goes to -3, I’m jumping on it. The Raiders were -3.5, but now it’s -3. The Cowboys were -3, now they’re -2.5. There are two teams I expect to do much better this year, the Saints and the Cowboys. Dallas is in New Jersey against the Giants, who may very well be better this year, but Dallas has more fire power than the Giants and an improved defense. Division games can and many times are close, but

I don’t see the Giants being able to keep up with the Cowboys offensive scoring ability. So let’s give the nod to Dallas at -2.5 in week one.

Man in Stripes: Navy -4.5 @ Florida Atlantic

Welcome back to the  Stone Cold Locks.. Aka, the man in stripes flipping a coin..LOL.. Interesting first week , who knew about the secret second in the Big House.. Thought about the Sooners this week, I do love them, but here’s one better.. How about a team that ran for 500 yards last week vs a team that gave 625 yards and 66 points.. FAU , got destroyed by Florida and had issues on defense last year, near the bottom on points allowed in the  Group of 6.. Navy, with their triple option,  that teams have struggled to defend forever,  this one seems like big strength vs big weakness..QB - Braxton Woodson, ran for over 200 yards last week, and should have a field day vs a porous FAU run defense !! Midshipmen win by DD.

OTHERS:

OU-5.5

Army -3.5

Memphis +10.5

Charlotte +46.5

Jags -7.5

Miami +3.5

MONO: Michigan +5.5 over Oklahoma

It’s good to be back. To kick this thing off, I’m gonna dive in head first. Let’s start this season off with a greasy, stinky play that makes no sense. 

Public enemy #1, Michigan… Big Blue is hosting Oklahoma after that head scratching ending to kick off the Kyle Whittingham tenure in Ann Arbor. What happened? I don’t fuckin know, but it happened and they’re 1-0. It doesn’t matter how you win, as long as you win (kinda). Before week 1, the early line on this one was Michigan -1.5. Not even 24-hours later, there was a 5 point swing and Michigan was +4.5. This thing has settled at Michigan +5.5 and I think that’s a bit too much here. Yes, they looked bad. Yes, they should’ve lost. Yes, Oklahoma just blew out UTEP like they were supposed to and Michigan should’ve lost. All signs point to Oklahoma winning by double-digits but let’s be real… it is NEVER this easy. I can’t fall for it here. Both defenses are great, we know that. I can’t put too much stock into the week 1 result, although it’s hard to ignore the eye test. Did Michigan really get up for Western? I would say no (obviously) but I bet they do in this spot here. 

Im going to bank on the week 1 scare waking this team up and putting a chip on their shoulder Saturday. The entire country hates them, thinks they should’ve lost and is betting on them to lose by at least a touchdown this week. Big noon kickoff in the Big House, with 100,000+ who don’t care about anything but a win (hence the shameless field storm last Saturday.) Take Michigan and the points, and dare I say sprinkle on the ML? Michigan covers and even wins this one 17-13.

Brutal: IOWA STATE +14 OVER IOWA

  Well, it sure is great that the NCAA has standardized the official game clock that will now and forever be the game clock that will officially decide timing issues in college football games.  Thank goodness! ........ the Dean Wormer "Double Secret Probation" clock that the Big 10 was using in last week's fiasco in Ann Arbor between Michigan and Western Michigan has been deep sixed!  You know what would be better?  If the Oligarch conferences actually cared about building the sport instead of just pure, raw, unadulterated greed.  Not that many years ago, NCAA Basketball required any team inviting a patsy to play on their homecourt had to return the favour and within the next two years play a match on the smaller college's court.  This was a big deal for the underdog school, especially if they had beaten the big fave at home or come close to it. 

  Alas, we are not living in an era where their is a living, breathing human commissioner or other such Artificial Intelligence generated authority that has the long term interests of the sport in mind.  So Western Michigan gets their 1.6 million dollars for playing the Wolverines in Ann Arbor and getting stone cold robbed.  Imagine next year in early September, ......... the excitement in the press, football in general and the wider public if the cowardly Wolverines had to bus 1 hour and 40 minutes down I-94 to play the Broncos in Kalamazoo. 

  The big spread for the CyHawk game this year is courtesy of the Cyclones losing their head coach Matt d three quarters of their roster who have all pursued greener pastures, most of them in Happy Valley, Pennsylvania.  New HC Jimmy Rogers did a decent job at South Dakota State and a brief stint with absolutely no talent at the conference-less Washington State for one year.  Last week they dominated a decent FCS Southeast Missouri State team in a 38-10 win.  Most impressive was Arkansas State transfer QB Jaylen Raynor who posed a dual threat throughout the game and has looked good in the highlight reels. 

  In Iowa City, the Hawkeyes blasted Northern Illinois 40-0.  Wow! I bet the Huskies from DeKalb are glad they left the MAC for the sweetness and light of the Mountain West Conference!  We have to keep in mind that Northern Illinois is going to be very, very bad this year, ... Kent State bad, ..... they are actually a 4.5 underdog this week hosting the FCS Illinois State Redbirds out of the Missouri Valley Conference!  How often are the Vegas oddsmakers that sharp on a lesser-game situation like this?  That is how weak Northern Illinois is going to be this year.  Yes the Hawkeyes looked good, but even by early-season patsy standards, NIU is going to be nola contendre for the whole season.  

  Now Iowa has sort of modernized in the new, better and bigger and greedier Big Ten.  They have finally embraced DEI, the transfer portal and Daylight Saving Time ( just as it is about to be repealed ), but we cannot totally trust 103 year old head coach Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes ( for two years he stuck by his son as offensive coordinator even though Iowa had the worst offense in Division One).  Kirk just doesn't ramp up the attack and win by big spreads and let his team explode offensively.  It just is not in their DNA.  What is in the Iowa Hawkeye CRISPER sequences tends to produce a few good, tough NFL tight ends, a few good tough NFL linebackers, but mostly, massive sixth generation German-American offensive linemen who play pro football for over a decade each.  

  Two touchdowns is just way too much in a game that is traditionally close and that still features a lot of Iowa players who played each other in high school and fought it out for recruiting spots in the two biggest schools in Iowa. 

Bob: COLTS +3.5 over Ravens

Two teams that finished 8-9 last year hook up at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Ravens are led by a new coach in Jesse Minter.  Last year Minter was the defensive coordinator of the Chargers. His worst game last year was against the Colts. The Colts rolled up 38 points in a victory over the Chargers. Jonathan Taylor averaged seven yards per carry in the game and Daniel Jones burned the defense with short passes. I’m just not as high on the Ravens as everyone else seems to be.  I think going on the road in a tough environment won’t be an easy task for the first game as a coach for Minter.  On the other hand, Shane Steichen proved to be a quality coach for Indianapolis last year.  The Colts season took a turn because of massive injuries that hit the club that included QB Daniel Jones. Everyone assumes that Lamar Jackson will rebound after an average season last year. I want to see it first. This won’t be an easy test going up against quality defense that sports two solid corners in Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward.  The Colts run defense was decent and should be able to contain Derrick Henry.  I expect this to be an under game, so I like getting over a field goal with the home team.