STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 7

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2026 Record 15-15

2025 record 56-55

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 536-418-15=56%

MR. OVER/UNDER: Teaser-7 point. Det/GB Over 46/ Houston -2.5

Been spending the week in Las Vegas, where it's not supposed to rain. Guess what? It's rained 2 of the 6-days I've been here. Cheered on the Bill's last Sunday with thousands and thousands of other Bills fans here. Yelled in discuss when the Colts lost, kicking me out of my Survivor pool and hurting last week's pick. 

Half the games this week have a spread of 3 or less. That's why I'm sticking with a teaser bet. Between injuries and favorites covering less than 60%, I'd rather win less with a teaser than get screwed by teams like the Colts. 

Detroit & Green Bay should be a shoot out. While the Giants are playing QB roulette (had to use a Vegas gambling term) Houston seems to have their QB playing better than he did in his rookie season. Let's go with another 7-point teaser. Detroit & Green Bay over 46 with Houston - 2.5. 

Man in Stripes: Minn -0.5/ NYG +16.5 6 PT TEASER

I love this time of the year on the sports calendar,  all 4 major sports are playing.. The Fall Classic starts this weekend.. And the leafs are looking wonderful.. As for my picks so far  this year.. a big meh....Let go!!! We will use a couple of oldies but goodies..Teams off bye ( Vikings) and teams coming back from overseas and playing the next week ( Texans).Minn -0.5- 2 teams going in different directions, The Vikes, 5-0, off a bye, ( teams cover over 60%, coming off byes).. Getting healthy, TJ Hockemson, Jordan Addison, coming back into lineup.. Kyler Murray , having a very solid season..All is good in Viking Land..Its a mess in Indy, after an awful loss last week to the winless Titans at home, the Colts fired their GM, several starters are questionable.. Daniel Jones has been regressing, all we need is the Vikes to win the game.. 

Second: Giants +16.5.. Hold your nose.. But, here me out.!!!!. Teams, like the Texans, coming from across the pond, playing the following week in the states  are 30% cover.. including the Eagles last week.. Giants. will be starting their 3rd QB of the year in JJ Mc Carthy.. He came in for an ineffective, Jameis Winston, and threw for 245 yards and 3 scoring drives in last 11 minutes of the game!! John Harbaugh teams, never get blown out!! Texans win this game, but teased up to over 2 tds, I will take all those points!!

A few others as you enjoy your Pumpkin Spice Ice Cap

NCAA- UCF +6.5/ Minn+7.5

NFL-Cinn -1.5/ Sea -2.5/ Det -3

Brewers in 7, in the Fall Classic. Enjoy the games, and this beautiful weather!!!!

MONO: MICHIGAN +7.5 over INDIANA

I started the year with Michigan as a home dog, and I can’t stay away from them in this spot this weekend. Michigan welcomes in Indiana off a loss, who really should’ve won if only the field was a little wider… This pick makes no sense, and these are the spots I love. Michigan beat Penn State last week fending off a late push from the Nittany Lions. Bryce Underwood got himself benched and we have Notre Dame QB CJ Carr’s Freshman brother Tommy getting his first start for Big Blue. The transition to the Big 10 hasn’t gone as smooth as Kyle Whittingham would’ve liked with back to back losses to Iowa and Minnesota, but after getting back on track last weekend, he gets the home field advantage this weekend. Indiana and Cignetti saw their nearly 2 year winning streak come to an end after Nick Marsh went too wide on an end zone shot to win the game against the Buckeyes. They get another Big Noon kickoff, this time on the road with a bad taste in their mouth. TCU transfer QB Josh Hoover has done a tremendous job protecting the ball this year with a perfect 18 touchdown to 0 interception ratio. If this line was 6.5, I’d feel a little different but a full 7 and a hook, on the road in Michigan, who needs a signature performance makes me lean to the home side. Both defenses are some of the best overall units in the country with Michigan giving up 256 yards per game and Indiana 270, with both units surrendering less than 100 rush yards per game. I expect this game to be ugly, with field possession to play a key role in deciding the winner. Call me crazy, but I think Hoover is due for a pick or 2 and a short field can help Michigan stay in this one. Indiana could not get the run game going last week, and it will be tough against this Wolverine front 7. The under feels like it’s in play but that feels a little too obvious. You know what else feels too easy? The Hoosiers -7.5. Let’s get greasy and back Big Blue +7.5. When things don’t make sense, I feel like it usually ends up as a winner. I’m not going to get ahead of myself and tell you Michigan may win this game, but I think 17 points wins this game, and Michigan gets to 10 late to cover the number. Plug your nose, close your eyes or better yet, don’t even watch it. By kickoff Saturday, I think Indiana will be a very public play. Let’s back the other side. Take Michigan +7.5.

Brutal: 6-point Teaser KENTUCKY (-4.5) with UTAH (Even)  

  Time was Vanderbilt and Kentucky dwelled at the bottom of the SEC, and took in their share of Conference booty and directed it to other areas of interest in the athletic department and the rest of the school budget.  It would be interesting to see how well those Kentucky basketball teams would have done over the years without the SEC football money share that they got the majority of over the years.  Well things have changed in the modern era, and the Kentucky Wildcats football program has embraced the era of NIL, Transfer Portals, shady boosters and the death of the charade of the student athlete.  Kentucky has never looked this good and under rookie coach Will Stein they have a 6-1 record this year.  Their only loss has been to Alabama who was rolling early in the year. 

  Vanderbilt has not embraced the same new college football reality.  They stink!  Their only significant win was over ACC bottom dweller North Carolina State when their quarterback forgot to take a safety and tried to run out the clock in the end zone, fumbled and gave the Commodores an improbable, almost impossible win with no time left.  There was no clear reason for this stupidity but Jaylen Daniels and the Washington Commodores' coaching staff were definitely not taking notes.  When Commodore Cornelis Vanderbilt founded this school in Nashville, he ensured that the school would have a big enough endowment to outlast the death of life on this rotating sphere through nuclear holocaust, climate change and general human stupidity resulting in scorpions and cockroaches being the highest lifeforms left on this little blue planet, third from the sun.

  ...... and yet, they are not investing anywhere near as much per capita as other schools in athletics, even though they are richer in the long term than many bigger schools.  

  We are betting directly on Kentucky, but the teaser is the safer bet for Stone cold Locks, because Kentucky may play down to the level of the Commodores and this is a traditional local rivalry between Nashville and Lexington. 

  Last week we rode the LDS, BRIGHAM YOUNG and the BIG 12 to a historic win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to a historic 28-24 victory.  Of course as we predicted, Notre Dame only fell to #4 from #2, but at least BYU leapfrogged them from #8 to #2.  This means that Notre Dame can get blown out by #1 Miami ( who needed two overtimes and some very nice ACC officiating to beat Florida State last week ) and the Irish will still be ranked in the top 10 and get in the playoff and make more of that big time money from those corrupt boosters, oligarchs and TV networks.  What a disgrace! 

  This week we go back to the Beehive State for a tougher game in the underrated Big 12.  ESPN seems to agree and is sending their Gameday crew back to Utah for the second week in a row.   I never thought I would say that I miss Lee Corso, even as he got older and became more irrelevant, but Pat MacAfee is beyond passively annoying. ( Like Stephen A. Smith, he is a big mouth self promoter, completely contrived and never lets the truth get in the way of a soundbite that will be repeated and shared on the internet ad nauseum ). 

  Utah may actually be a bit better than BYU, and Houston is probably not better than Notre Dame, but they are more exciting.  We will know more when UTAH hosts BYU on November 7. 

  This is the highest altitude Houston has played at since last September in Boulder, Colorado ( they did win but that Buffalo team was terrible and went 3 and 9 in 2025 and lost their last five games of the season )  Salt Lake City is approx. 4,327 feet above sea level; Houston is 50 feet above sea level due to the fact that it is an inland port on the Gulf of Mexico.  Utah lost their longtime coach and several top players to Michigan, but the undefeated Utes have not missed a beat and are 6-0. 

  Houston has made QB Connor Weigman look like the five star recruit he was before being mismanaged by Texas A&M like the US Military under Pete Hegseth.  These teams have equal, balanced offences but the UTES defense is much better than the Cougars.  Teasing this down ensures we can win with any kind of victory in a game that should be exciting late on Saturday night ( and we are not talking a Bay City Rollers exciting Saturday Night ).

Bob: DETROIT -3 OVER GREEN BAY

We get a situational edge here with the Lions coming off the bye and Green Bay coming off a Sunday night game.  Green Bay comes in on a three game winning streak but not impressed with wins over Tampa Bay, Dallas and a Bears team without Caleb Williams. The Lions set to get Brain Branch back for his first game of the year.  That should help a secondary that does need help.  Bottom line is I trust the Detroit offense with Goff, Gibbs and St. Brown more than I do Green Bay. 

Green Bay comes in averaging only 21 points a game.  Jordan Love has been better of late but through six weeks he still has only completed 59.7 percent of his passes. That ranks 28th currently in the NFL. Josh Jacobs maybe back but I don’t expect him to come in and be in perfect form. I would think he might need at least a week to get back to form.