STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 12

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2025 record 27-28

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 490-375-15=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER:  Chicago -2.5 over Pittsburgh

If you’ve put your money on Seattle & New England this year, you’re doing well. Both teams have covered  ATS 8 times, while Philly & the Rams have covered 7 times. Cincy & Green Bay are at the bottom, having covered only 3 games.  Talk about home field advantage, Cleveland has only allowed an average of 14-points at home, but over double that, 29.7 on the road.

If you want to talk about improvement this year, you have to talk about New England and Chicago. While the Bears have been winning, and lead the NFC North, they’ve allowed 6 more points than they’ve scored this season. However, they lead the league in takeaways and interceptions. They’re at home this week against a Pittsburgh team that isn’t sure which QB will be starting, an injured Rogers or ineffective Rudolph. I like the Bears here while they’re only giving away 2.5. Grab this line early as I expect it to change as much as a point.

Man in Stripes:  Lions -6.5 1H vs Giants

Just missed by the hook with the Ravens last week.. Let’s get back on the horse, with a team/ coach that has been good to us this week, leaning into a trend that is 13-0!!!!!  The Lions are 13-0 ATS  with Dan Campbell the game after a loss..4-1 1H at home this year!! I was hoping for that number to come down under 10 to play the full game.. I think the uncertainty of Jaxson Dart at QB for the Gmen has kept this number north of 10..Both teams are banged up somewhat, who isn't at this time of the year.. Giants played tough last week for their new coach  and QB, James Winston, the normal letdown in week 2 comes on Sunday.. We  try to go 3 for 3 with Lions 1H!!! Campbell has the boys ready after a tough loss in Philly last Sunday night!!

A quick shout out to Brutal for his CFL pick.. I  went with the Roughriders too.. I will be sending  you a share of my winnings.. In Canadian however!! Good luck everyone and enjoy the games!!!

MONO: Missouri +7.5 over Oklahoma

Officially done with totals for the year.. well, at least in the AAC.. maybe. This week we’re going with a top 25 showdown down in Norman. Oklahoma is hosting the Missouri Tigers and they’re laying 7.5. I’m taking the points with Mizzou. Oklahoma is coming off a huge win in Tuscaloosa that vaulted them into the CFP conversation. I think it’s a prime spot for a letdown. In comes Oklahoma’s long time Big12 Rival, except this time in the SEC. Both teams are not good but great on the defensive side of the ball. Missouri is running with their back up QB, but I don’t think that matters here. Sooner QB John Mateer is not 100% and I don’t see him being able to turn it on against this Mizzou secondary. Oklahoma’s run defense is top 5, but Mizzou averaging nearly 250 on the ground per game. This game is a fascinating clash of strengths between both teams. I think Mizzou has a real shot to win this game. If they’re going to give us a full touchdown AND the hook, I have to jump on it. Take Mizzou to keep it within this number in a rivalry spot.

Brutal:  SMU -2 OVER Louisville 

  Back in the 1980's, SMU was given the Death Penalty, ostensibly for running an "Ahead of their Time" Name, Image, Likeness recruiting program.  The big schools, Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M were steamed that the smaller, private school in Dallas was stealing their birthright to sign the best high school players in the Southwest.  The Death Penalty literally crippled their sports programs for decades.  The Mustangs were most famous when they ran the Pony Express featuring Craig James and Eric Dickerson at running back.  Bob Gaughan informs me that coming out of high school, Eric Dickerson was given a Pontiac Trans Am by Texas A&M and when he signed for even more largesse from SMU, he refused to give the Aggies back their car!  So eventually the big schools ganged up on these brazen newcomers and got the NCAA to investigate and effectively destroy them while their multitude of recruiting transactions were ignored. 

  The football program was turned around initially by Run-and-Shoot master June Jones after he left Hawaii.  From 2008 to 2013 he had four winning seasons and four Bowl games, which does not sound like a lot, but it was by far the best the team had done in decades.  Since then, big money SMU alum have financed the move to the ACC, so they can bring most of their resources out in the open. 

  Louisville has had a decent year.  They are 7-3.  Their most notable win was upsetting Miami one week after they had just failed to beat big favorite Virginia.  However, since then they have slowed down.  They beat two terrible teams, Boston College and Virginia Tech and then lost at home to triple score underdog California ( a game we profited on nicely betting the money-line ) and then again at home to Clemson.  They did not look very good in either game. They have no chance at the ACC title, so their motivation is in question Saturday morning as they head for an early game in Dallas that is an hour less than their bodies are used to, but heck, anything that messes with their biorhythms a little bit can only be a positive for the acclimatized Mustangs and us!

 SMU is also 7-3, they have likewise beaten Miami, they have won 5 of their last 6, and have a very outside shot at the ACC title, but that is not why we are taking them here.  Southern Methodist made the playoff last year, won a game, but then lost badly, so the biggest schools, their boosters, their fans and the sycophantically compliant Vidkun Quisling media all whined, cried and pleaded the great injustice of it all, ...... and then they "tweaked" the playoff after just one year! ...... to favor their SEC-BIG 10 cabal and an almost monopoly on playoff slots, .... the more things change, .......  Southern Methodist has some pride here.  They have their own mega-rich, oligarch oil industry boosters who want a good showing every year and still think invitations to major Bowl games matter.  I think SMU will be playing hard at home.  The small spread is a gift.  SMU also cares about finishing their year strong so they can recruit favorably in the rich Texas high school system and not allow Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M to beat them to all the best prospects each year.

  The more things change, ...... 

Bob: Arizona -6.5 over Baylor

This week was a tough week in the NFL so I decided to go back to the college ranks for a week. Let’s go to an early start in Arizona with two teams going in different directions. In Arizona you have a team that has over achieved all year and recently won three straight. Wildcats most impressive win was their last one in Cincinnati over the Bearcats. Arizona QB Noah Fifita has been solid all year with a 24-4 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions.  Baylor on the other hand has lost three of their last four. In those three losses they have given up 42, 41 and 55 points. On the road all year the Bears have given up an average of 39 points per game. Let’s go with the better team at home with the much better defense.