STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 14

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2025 record 33-32

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 493-377-15=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER: 7-point teaser Rams -½, Seahawks Even

  Let’s share some interesting NFL stats about some of this week’s games. In their last 12 road games, Seattle is 11-1 Straight up and 9-3 against the spread. That’s the best in the NFL. The Colts have not won in Jacksonville in 11-years. Go Colts! In his 11-games against the Steelers, Lamar Jackson has thrown 9 interceptions and 8 touchdowns. Honest! The Titans are in Cleveland this week. Cleveland has 43 sacks this year and Tennessee has allowed a league leading 48 sacks. OUCH!  Finally, Denver hasn’t beaten a road opponent this year by more than 4-points. They’re favored this week by 7.5.

Last week we did a 7-point teaser parley with the Chargers and Seattle. They both covered the actual spreads. So this week I’m doing another 7-point teaser parley with teams I also think will cover the actual spreads. So why tease them? Because both teams are on the road and one has a hook. I think the Rams, after an upset loss last week, will bear down and play like the Super Bowl contender that I think they are. Currently they’re -7.5 against Arizona and I expect the odds to increase. Seattle still can win the NFC west and can’t afford to lose to an NFC opponent. As I stated earlier, they’ve been a fabulous road team. At -7, all they’ll have to do is just win. So take the Rams at minus a half and the Seahawks at even, and win some money.

However, if you’d like to be a little adventurous, add Tampa Bay and make it a 3-team 7-point teaser. Tampa at home against New Orleans would be -1.5. Currently that 3-team parley is +120. Good Luck

Man in Stripes: Bengals +6.5 @ Bills

( editor note - spread at 5.5 currently, I played it at 6.5 when it came out Sunday night..)

Need to break out of a mini slump, and we will step in front of the Bills December  train to do so... Allen 12-1 SU last 13 in Dec., and Sean Mc

Dermott, 23-3 SU in last 26 Dec games.. Bengals 4-8, forget that record, for only the 2nd time all season they have Burrows  , aka Joe Cool, who seems to own the Bills, Chase and Higgins , should be ready to go, healthy and playing in the same game!!Beat up Ravens on the road last week.. WATCH OUT!! They are dangerous!! PLAYING CAREFREE  and will score against an average / below average Bills D..Nothing to lose look for Burrows to chuck it all over the lot.. As for the Bills, Their SB appearance or bust season is coming to a head.. The division  is really not in play, who had the Pats at  11-2????? bad drafting, poor FA signing, and now throw in a ton of injuries. NOT a good spot for them!! Bosa, Kinkaid,Dawkins, Bernard, Palmer, Samuel.. It will be James Cook / JA17 VS THE WORLD.. Team is very thin at WR, TE w Kinkaid probably out, DE , secondary.... not sure who is stopping the Bengal  WRs.. Cincy has a 3 day rest advance  and ALL THE PRESSURE IS ON THE BILLS.. All I can think of is the AFC Divisional playoff game when Burrows  carved up  the Bills .. I was there then and I will be in Orchard Park this Sunday.. I WILL STAND IN FRONT OF THAT TRAIN. I think Cincy is VERY LIVE!! .Bills find a way to win ..but not cover

Bengals +6.5.. Enjoy the games

MONO: James Madison Team Total Over 34.5

Happy Conference Championship weekend. Lots of storylines with the 12 team playoff. Some spots may be locked up, others are wide open for the taking. Couple of group of 5 games I love. This North Texas - Tulane game is going to be a banger Friday night. Perfect way to start the weekend. My favorite storyline coming into this weekend is if Duke beats Virginia. Should that happen, Duke at 8-5 should not be included in the playoff. Instead, “the 5 highest rated conference champions” will get in. Who is that you ask? The Dukes from James Madison… They host Troy on their home field for the Sun Belt title. The line is steep at -23.5. That’s not where we’re going. Instead, we’re taking the JMU team total over 34.5. They’ve gotten past this number in 5 straight conference games. Troy’s defense is strong, but weak in the run game which is where JMU thrives. You gotta remember too, style points are still a thing. A few years ago, Curt Cignetti and this Dukes team went undefeated and weren’t eligible for postseason play. The program has retooled and find themselves back in a position to make the top 12 and compete for a championship. In this spot, a Friday night game, on campus and their last chance to catch the eyes of the committee, I think the Dukes put up 40+ en route to a Sun Belt title. They may even hit the total for the game themselves. Take the Dukes team total O 34.5.

Brutal:  #2 Indiana (+4.5) @ #1 Ohio State  

   Big X Championship. 

   Lucas Oil Stadium 

   Indianapolis, Indiana  

  Did David shirk from confrontation with that giant Philistine Goliath?  Did the Duke of Wellington give up the high ground to Napoleon at Waterloo?  Am I afraid to pick against the Evil Colossus of Ohio State?  Well according to the oral & theological tradition if not the historical, the answer to the first question is No!  According to real, Napoleonic historians who do not flirt with alternative facts, the answer to the second question is No!  The answer to the third question is absolutely No!  Somewhere in this universe there should be a karmic judgement against a team that has spent over 30 million not-so-hard-earned dollars on DEI and God knows how many more of soft money on cash handouts for the football team.  We rode the upstart Hoosiers to success last year, and then again this year, and we predicted their dismantling of Oregon earlier this year. 

  The best thing to happen to undefeated Indiana this season was their close call win against the dive bombing, recruit-losing but still dangerous Penn State.  That game was a wake-up call for overconfidence.  Now the Hoosiers are battle-tested, sober and motivated to win Indiana's first Big Ten title since 1967!!!!!  The only other title came in 1945, just months after World War II ended.  Indiana wants revenge for last year's embarrassing 38-15 loss to Ohio State in the Horseshoe.  Indiana coach Cignetti is intense, and it is hard to believe that he will not empty the trick-bag in deploying every tactic known to gridiron historians to defeat Darth Vader and the Evil Empire from Columbus.  

  The biggest concern with this game is the fact that both unbeaten teams will be in the convoluted College Playoff regardless of the outcome of this game.  Although Ohio State travels very well, a lot of these overpriced tickets will end up in the hands of the boosters, fanboys, brand-building celebrities, millionaires and social-media attention whores who now perpetuate the college football universe.  Many of these clowns are front-running, fickle phonies who feel success is often achieved in life by tying yourself to predictable, monopolistic bandwagons of jingoism.  If this game goes south, these shills and stooges will lose enthusiasm a lot quicker than Indiana's burgeoning fan base who are starved to add 2025 to the very short list of Hoosier Big Ten titles.  Since this game is in Indiana, this may be one of the only times that Ohio State will not have more fans than their opponent at a neutral site game.  The Collegiate-Super Bowl split-crowd atmosphere will favor the home state Hoosiers.  I really like QB Fernando Mendoza and the high flying Indiana offense.  Mendoza is making his highest profile start and will want to cement his Heisman Trophy with a win on Saturday night against the team with the smashed chestnuts on their helmets.  

Who's afraid of Virginia Woolf?  Not me Edward Albee.  We are taking Indiana, sort of at home, getting more than a field goal in a big-time Saturday night game. 

 Peace, Love, Namaste, Merry Christmas, Frohe Weihnacten, ...... in the words of R. Dean Taylor  "Indiana wants me, but I can't go back there." ..... on to the future,....... Indiana (+4.5)

Bob:  Steelers +6 over Ravens

Professional athletes have pride. When they are embarrassed they respond with a solid effort. You saw this last week with the Bills.  They were embarrassed by their performance against the Texans and responded with a much better effort vs Pittsburgh. Earlier this year the worst team in baseball the Colorado Rockies lost 21-0 at home.  They came back and won the next game. It was one of only 43 games they won all year.  The Steelers got it handed to them by the Bills.  They respond with a good game.  Let’s talk about the Ravens. Lamar’s legs are not the same as previous years. He’s banged up and not nearly as dangerous. Is it just me or has Derrick Henry gotten old in the last six weeks. Henry doesn’t look like the same running back that played against the Bills in week one.  Tomlin’s teams respond after bad losses.  Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS after scoring less than 15 points and they are 6-2 ATS after double digit home losses. I need to bounce back after last weeks pick and the Steelers need to bounce back as well.