STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 3

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2026 Record 5-5

2025 record 56-55

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 526-408-15=56%

MR. OVER/UNDER: Bills -7 Over Chargers

The Chargers did something very difficult last week. They lost to the same score as the week before. And the Bears did something difficult too. Scoring 59 points one week and 3 the next. They still average 31 points a game, which is kind of deceiving. 

In week one I talked about defenses and how they have an advantage at the beginning of the season. However, only 7 games went under in week one, but 11 went under in week two. 

I like KC this week, but having been in Florida just a week ago, that heat & humidity was hell. Not sure how that might affect the Chiefs in Miami? So let's go back to the Chargers, who were expected to compete in the AFC West, but are 0-2. West coast team, flying east, to play a 1pm game. Those usually are tough on the visitor. Plus they've only scored a total of 28-points so far, while the Bills have scored over 36-points in both games. Everything says take the Bills, and I will. However, if the line is 7.5, buy a half point and make it 7. 

Man in Stripes: 6 point teaser-Bills -1 / Pats +8.5

Well starting off 0-2 is not good in the NFL.. Since the 17 game schedule 0-2 means you miss playoffs 2 out of every 3 times!! Some teams like the Dolphins, Titans, and maybe Falcons were expected to be here.. But others like Washington, Chargers, Tampa Bay, and Houston might be fighting for their lives in week 3.. Really can't afford to go 0 and 3, and think of going to the post season!! You can add one more 0 and 2 trying to turn it around.. THAT WOULD BE YOURS TRULY!! We dust ourselves off, and let's make some money.. 

Bills teased down under 7, and 3, literally just need to win this game!! All the advantages check boxes in favor of the Bills, home, the Lightning Bolts playing the old 10am body clock game across the country, Bills with extra rest, less injuries, and their team is humming, I was there last Thursday , and will be there Sunday.. It’s the NFL, so these games scare me, JUST NOT THIS ONE!! As long as the Bills stay mainly focused, we feel confident they can win this game, by double digits.. And we will teaser them with the team coming into the new Highmark in week 4 , the Patriots.. I know it’s been boring, and conservative , but they came up with a horrible pick in the opener by Drake Maye of being 2-0.. Pats D has been great so far.. Look for them, to play keep away with the ball.. Jags offense died last week in Denver,  and the Pats will bang them around up front, to keep this game within 1 score!! Let's tease it over 3,6 , and 7.. This game smells like 20-17 somebody!! Can't lose this one or my head might be on the chopping blocks!! Good luck and enjoy the games.

MONO: Maryland +2 over UCLA

This week we’re gonna stay on the underdog train, although this line is much tighter than the previous 2 weeks. Maryland is hosting UCLA in their Big 10 opener, and getting 1.5 from the book. UCLA is off to a 3-0 start, coming off a shootout win in their own conference opener last week against Purdue. They went shot for shot with the much improved boilermaker offense until about halfway through the 3rd quarter when they forced a turnover. QB Nico Iamaleavea is back and looks pretty good so far. UCLAs offense line has had some trouble protecting him but he has taken care of business so far this year. Maryland is 2-1 and coming off a home loss to James Franklin and Virginia tech. They started slow in that one , finding themselves down 14-0 early in the 2nd quarter. They battled but couldn’t overcome the early deficit. Half of my cap here has to do with UCLA having to fly across the country for a 1:30 eastern kick, which is 10:30 in Cali. We’ve seen the west coast teams struggle in this spot since they joined the conference, and I think this one goes that way. The Bruins gave up 488 total yards last week and 425 through the air. They don’t get a breath here as Maryland QB Malik Washington is a polished passer himself. Maryland will rely heavily on their passing attack and I don’t think one week can fix the holes in the secondary that Purdue exposed. UCLA won this one on a walk-off field goal in 2025 and Maryland will be looking to return the favor. UCLA is also one of the worst teams in the country in terms of penalties, ranking 3rd worst. They’ve committed 32 total penalties over their first 3 games for a total of 283 yards. That, paired with an early kick across the country is a recipe for a let down spot. I think Maryland comes out of the gate fast here, trying to put last week behind them. UCLA will have trouble slowing down the Terps passing attack and will commit some costly penalties that will stall drives. Let’s not forget, Iamaleavea is prone to some boneheaded decisions and if they can’t protect him, I expect him to turn the ball over. It’s not as bad as a noon kick, but it’s still a sleepy spot for them in their first game not on the west coast and they run out of gas late. Maryland covers the short spread and wins

Brutal: New Mexico State +12.5 Over New Mexico

 Last week we only needed seven one major score from the Aggies of Utah State to cover the massive 28 point spread against UTAH.  Unfortunately, USU turned the ball over three times inside the ten yard line and lost 33-0 to their in-state rivals.  It was something I thought I would never see from a Bronco Mendenhall coached team, ...... but that is college football.

   This week welcome to the "Rio Grande Rivalry" that started in 1894 and predates New Mexico statehood by about two decades.  Also known as the "I-25 War" due to the direct transportation route between Albuquerque and Los Cruces, this is an inter-conference game between the Mountain West and Conference USA just like the last two weeks' stone cold locks.  Predictably, this game is an intense rivalry with a history of upsets and shifting bragging rights. 

  The state of New Mexico has a very colorful history of violence and intrigue in the Wild West era of American Expansionism.  There were major battles over railway barons seeking land expropriation, big business cattle contracts, fencing disputes, massive cattle drives and generally lethal competition between sheep and cattle ranchers.  There were many completely lawless jurisdictions that took the law into their own hands.  Relating to all of this were the Lincoln County War, the exploits of Billy the Kidd, the lethal adventures of maniac gun fighter Clay Allison and the invasion of Columbus, New Mexico by Pancho Villa and 600 Mexican rebels.  We fully hope and somewhat expect this game to measure up to the historical legacy of the "Land of Enchantment."  

  Strangely, both these teams have hosted, paid and beaten a common opponent this year:  Erie, Pennsylvania's Roman Catholic Mercyhurst University.  The Lobos beat them by 63 points and the Aggies throttled them by 37 ( I sure hope Mercyhurst now has the money to put a new roof on the campus cathedral:  "Christ the King Chapel" ).  There are of course many intangibles for this rivalry game.  The two teams have played 115 times since the inaugural clash; the only missing games were due to two World Wars, The Great Depression and the COVID-19 epidemic.  However, the Lobos may be distracted, they may be looking ahead just a little bit.  This week the computers, algorithms, shill analysts and analytics that dominate the college football theater of operations give them a 7% chance of making the college football playoff if they win the underrated Mountain West Conference ( The odds would have been approximately 12% if they had not lost that very close 14-6 game to Oklahoma in Norman ).  Be still my heart!  What generosity!  What incentive!  Thank you big conference gods, oligarch boosters and TV networks for your unparalleled magnanimity and the crumbs you scatter at the feet of the peasants belonging to the "Group of Six Conferences" as long as they accept their station in the "Brave New World College Sports Universe" with the appropriate cooperative submissiveness and servile acceptance!   

  Despite New Mexico's good start to the year, we kind of like the NMSU AGGIES here ( hope it is not bad luck to take teams labelled Aggies for two weeks in a row ).  NEW MEXICO STATE has won two of the last four games in this rivalry, once on the road and once at home and both times as a sizeable dog.  We like the fact that the AGGIES are coming in off the bye with two weeks of preparation for their in-state rival.  Aggie head coach Tony Sanchez is a former wide receiver who has brought more offence to the programme and we always liked his efforts at UNLV as the head man between 2014-2019.  Being at home and getting almost two touchdowns in a game that is traditionally close, we will take the alma mater of Sam Lacey, Diego Pavia and Pascal Siakam!   

  P.S.  Congratulations to 80 year old Woodrow Wilson Paige today for being the first major sports journalist to publicly call-out his fellow octogenarian, President Donald Jonathan Trump for defying the United States Constitution with his latest attempted censorship of a free press.

Bob: 6 Pt Teaser: Bills -1 over Chargers; 49ers -2 over Cardinals

I was going to go with Mississippi State over Missouri but the spread kept going up so I will go with my first teaser of the year.  The Bills have an edge with 10 days rest coming into this game after playing last Thursday.  The Chargers are the typical west coast team traveling east for a 1pm game.  So situational edge goes for the Bills.  Not to mention the Bills offense is hitting on all cylinders with Joe Brady letting JA17 cook.  The Chargers are in disarray after losing two home games to the Cardinals and the Raiders.  The Chargers offensive line has struggled to run the ball or protect Justin Herbert.  Chargers typically won August and were the darling pick and unfortunately for them the games had to start. Bills just need to win with the teaser.

The 49ers have started out on fire this year with two blowout wins.  Blowing out the Dolphins was expected but the blowout of the Rams in the first game was a surprise.  I was slow to appreciate how good Brock Purdy actually is, but stats don’t lie. He’s completing 80 percent of his passes and has a 5:1 TD to interception ratio. Christian McCaffrey as long as he stays healthy is still the best dual threat back in the league.  The Cardinals win over the Chargers was not as impressive after they were shut down at home to Seattle.  Again with the teaser I only essentially need to win the game.