STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 8

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2026 Record 18-16-1

2025 record 56-55

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 539-419-16=56%

MR. OVER/UNDER: JACKSONVILLE -2.5 OVER COLTS/

RAMS +½ OVER CHARGERS- 7-POINT TEASER

This has been one of the more difficult years picking winners in the NFL. If you’re still in a survivor pool, you’re lucky. Two-weeks ago the Rams were 12.5 point favorites at home, and lost. Then they go on the road and beat the Raiders by 14. Last week Houston was a 10.5 favorite at home and lost to the Giants. But it’s just not point spreads. The Over/Under for the Jets/Dolphins game last week was 39.5. The O/U for the Browns/ Titans game was 37.5. Both games went over by 14-points. Plus the two highest O/U games for last week, Atlanta/San Fran and Detroit/Green Bay, both went under.

What about the home field advantage? Of the 14 games last week, only 5 home teams won. Four of them covered the spread. Philadelphia has only covered the spread once this year, while six teams, including Cleveland, Las Vegas and the Giants have covered 5 of their 7 games. To top it all off, undefeated Kansas City finally lost last week, winless Miami won, and the Bengals trailing 13-0 at halftime, won by 22-points.    So if you’re having a tough year playing NFL games, welcome to the club.

The Jaguars had a week off after losing to Houston across the pond. The Colts seem to be throwing in the towel and need to make sure they have enough players before heading to Jacksonville. The Jaguars are 9.5 favorites. Meanwhile the winless Chargers are headed to L.A., (Oops, I think they’re from L.A. now) to play the Rams, who are definitely from L.A.  The Rams are only favored by 6.5 and may need to win every game

to make the playoffs. So let’s tease the favorites 7-points, against teams that might cover the spread, but have no right winning.

Man in Stripes: Cleve+9.5 OVER PITTSBURGH/ Den +7.5 OVER KC- 6 pt teaser

It’s Halloween weekend, and a beautiful weekend here in the 716.. Lets get some tricks n treats fir everyone..

Browns +9.5- Pittsburgh has been a house of horrors for the Brownies,  they have lost 22 in a row in the Steel City!! 22!!! This might be a different Browns team.. Todd Monken, has this team believing, at 5-2, with Deshaun Watson, leading the way, who had that on their bingo card??? These teams play close games, this game has 16-13 written all over it!!! Browns won the first time 27-24 in Ctown!! And you remember the stat we pulled out last week, teams playing the week after playing out of the country , not taking a bye, cover less than 30% of the time.. Giants won outright as a 10 pt dog in Houston last week.. We tease it over 6, 7, please NO 6-7 6-7 jokes, and feel comfortable getting over a TD with the upstart first place Browns.

Broncos +7.5

Tough spot for the Chiefs, ran into a buzz saw on SNF at Seattle, got banged around, a few injuries, and now they stay on the road at another top 5 D in the Mile High City!!! Since Sean Payton has taken over the play calling , Denver has gone 3-0, Bo Nix has played much better, their offense has been in the top half of the league over this winning streak.. But, it’s the Broncos D that has lead the way..Top 5 in point per play allowed, top 5 in QB pressure, the KC OL struggled mightily last week, look for much of the same at home.. KC beat the Broncos bad on opening night, look for Denver , who has won 3 in a row at home to the Chiefs,  to make it 4.. But, we will tease it over, again 6, and 7..

Some other treats for you:

Det-3

Buff -3

Bears +3.5

Ole miss-13.5

Minn +21

MONO: VIRGINIA +13.5 OVER WAKE FOREST

Not an easy slate for spooky season. A lot of spooky lines. A few spots for teams who just fired their coach. Maryland, Baylor and NC State are trotting out this weekend with interim coaches. Tried to pick one who might bounce back, but none of these teams have shown enough to trust. Gun to my head, I think Baylor beats UCF off the huge win, but thats no lock.. I do hope they give RG3 that job. What a story that would be. There is a line that caught my eye on Monday and I can’t look away. Virginia had CFP hopes after a huge year last year and this year has been a major disappointment. We faded them as double digit favorites against WVU, it’s only right we circle back. They’re on the road this week off a loss to Duke, visiting #14 Wake Forest and getting 13.5. Wake is on a run, with their only loss coming in a competitive game against Miami. They’re off a bye and a strong finish to their season might give them another shot against the Canes for the conference title. They kinda came out of nowhere, backed by a top 20 passing attack and a top 50 defense. As bad as Virginia has looked, only one of their losses was by more than 11 points in a dud at Florida State. They scored first, and let FSU score 38 unanswered to win the game. They hung tough at SMU a few weeks ago and lost on a late touchdown last week at home against Duke. Their defense has been fine all year, ranked in the top 50 in total yards surrendered. Their secondary is the highlight of the unit, giving up less than 200 yards per game. This line seems 2-3 points too high to me. Wake is 6-1, but have beaten up on the basement dwellers in the ACC. Virginia finds themselves down there, but the roster says otherwise. This is a back to the wall play, and I think Virginia hangs tough here for 3 quarters. The 4th may get away from them, but all we need is to keep this one within 10. There have been some dogs that won outright for us this year, not here. There is a theme here, take the points, plug your nose and hold your breath. You don’t have to watch it but if you do, tune into the 4th quarter. I think this one is a prime spot for a late backdoor score that keeps us in it. Take Virginia +13.5.

Brutal: Cincinnati +7 over Utah

 We go to historic Nippert stadium for our pick this week.  Nippert is one of the oldest venues in college football.  They started playing on these grounds in 1901 and the stadium was built in the 20’s.

The stadium is known for how close the fans are to the competition.  No nose bleeds seats at Nippert make this a tough place to play.

We think that Utah is in a similar spot that BYU was in last week.  BYU was coming off a “Gameday” experience and an emotional win over Notre Dame at home. Then they traveled across the country and got upset by UCF.

By the way, the end of that game had some of the worst officiating. The end of that game lasted 45 minutes in real time because of the refs.  The Green Bay-Detroit game had better officiating.

But I digress, Utah didn’t look great to me last week in beating Houston at home.  Same as BYU, you had the Gameday distraction to contend with. Houston should have put that game away in the first half.

Now Utah must travel across the country to play a Cincinnati team that beat a ranked Texas Tech team. Cincinnati looked to me like they were clicking on all cylinders in taking out the Red Raiders.

Bearcats now have chance at the title in the always tough Big 12.  The Big 12 has great parity from top to bottom and I love watching these games.

So, let’s go with the university that gave us Oscar Robertson, Sandy Koufax, President William Howard Taft and Paul Tibbets (the pilot that dropped the bomb on Hiroshima).

The spread started at 7 ½ and is going down so get it while it’s still a TD.

Bob: Detroit -3.5 over Minnesota

 I don’t often take the same team two weeks in a row but last week I picked Detroit and the spread was a push.

So, since it was a tie, I don’t mind seeing if we can cash in on the Lions this week.

Minnesota is the last undefeated team. But seriously does anyone think they are one of the best teams in football?

Vegas doesn’t and that’s why you have to lay over a field goal.  The Minnesota offense is horrible with Kyler Murray running the show.

Murray has thrown three TD’s and two interceptions on the year.  The Vikings are 6-0. The last five weeks the Vikes have averaged 14 points per game.

The reason they win is because of the defense run by Brian Flores.  In this game I think that the Detroit offense can hold their own against the most aggressive defense in football.