STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 4

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2025 record 8-7

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 471-354-15=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER: Detroit -8.5 over Cleveland

There must be a lot of chickens in Atlanta, because the Falcons sure laid a big egg in Carolina. And what’s going on with all the blocked field goals? Is Indy for real or will the Rams bring them back down to earth? Week 4 in the NFL is going to answer a lot of questions, especially the game between Baltimore and Kansas City.

Cleveland shocked Green Bay last week, but the most points they’ve scored in a game this year is 17. They travel to Detroit this week where the Lions scored 52 points in their last home game. Even with the disappointed showing in week one against Green Bay, the Lions are averaging over 34-points a game this season. That’s double Cleveland’s highest game point total so far. Cleveland is not that good a team on the road and Detroit is a very good team at home. Grab Detroit at -8.5 before the odds increase.

Man in Stripes:  Bills TEAM TOTAL OVER 30.5 (-125)

If it ain't broke... UNLESS YOU HAVE A 13-1 TREND... We go away from the NFL teasers this week to go with  the greatest show in Orchard Park!!!! Bills are 13-1 team total over in last 14 regular season home games, have scored at least 30 in 12 of last 14 regular season home games as well. Beautiful weather,  Bills offense clicking on "most" cylinders, , extra rest for the Bills, and the Saints stink!!! I know it's the NFL, but McDermott/ Allen and Co. usually feast on inferior teams.. Truth be told Bills TT IS 31.5, we bet it down a point a little extra juice..under the key numbers of 31.... BILLS will hang at least 35  on Saints on Sunday.. 

Some others I like:

UND -4.5, Need it

Okla St +21, NEW COACH THEORY

Iowa +7.5, too many pts

Bama/ uga over 52.5, LOTS OF POINTS IN BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Oregon +3.5. Franklin awful record vs top 20 teams

Europeans +120.. THE BEST EVENT OF THE WEEKEND..Rory and Co pull it out!!! Hope I'm wrong!!

Enjoy the games, and good luck!!

Mono: ALABAMA/ GEORGIA OVER 52.5

Let’s get the wheels back on track and stay away from prove it spots for unproven teams. Bama and Georgia are showing down in Athens on Saturday night and picking a side is tough. With that said, I love the total in this one. Set at 52.5, I’m going with the over. Both teams are coming off a bye here, with Georgia sneaking by Tennessee thanks to a missed field goal (college kickers, lol) and Bama taking care of business against Wisconsin. Since that week 1 loss at Florida State, Bama QB Ty Simpson has been near perfect, granted it was against UL Monroe and Wisconsin. WR Ryan Williams finally showed up in their Wisconsin game and I expect DeBoer and his OC to scheme him open against this Georgia defense. Georgia gave up 41 against Tennessee in their first big game of the season and probably should’ve lost that one. The defense has holes and I’ll be surprised if Bama doesn’t flirt with 30 here. Georgia’s offense kept pace with the high flying Vols in their last game and Gunner Stockton adds a duel threat element that they didn’t have in years past. With speed on the outside, I expect them to score 30 themselves. With the way this game went last year, I think it will be similar. Not sure who wins this one, but I think the final looks something like 35-31. Take the over 52.5.

Brutal:    #6 Oregon (+3.5) @ #3 PENN STATE 

   How many years do we have to hear in the opening month of the season that this year's Nittany Lions are different!  National Championship on the near horizon!  The ghost of Joe Pa! ..... blah, blah, blah, .... and then Penn State actually plays a non-FBS, or MAC cellar dweller and then gets absolutely waxed.  Penn State is the perennial Miss Congeniality Award-Bronze Medalist in the Big 10.  Ohio State and Michigan take the top two spots on the podium most years and Penn State is getting a nice fat Bowl bid only because they travel really well with their huge fan base and the fact that they annihilated the weakest teams in the bottom half of the FBS by run-up-the-score Spurrier margins that look impressive to the dopes on the committee and that Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Northwestern and others cannot accomplish on a yearly basis.  Well, Oregon is not one of the weakest teams in college football. 

  Oregon lost in the playoff quarter final last year to Ohio State after beating Penn State the week before.  The Nittany Lions may believe that they are out for revenge and they are pumped and........ they are going to lose!  The Ducks have looked better this year than last.  They have developed a stronger, ball control rushing attack to better prepare for both Big Ten autumn weather and take advantage of unfortunate clock rule changes from several year's ago that favor one possession quarters like old NFC games from the mid 1980s featuring Washington, Chicago and the New York Giants.  Oregon has looked solid, predatory, and serious in their wins this year over Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern and still bitter rival Oregon State.  Nope, not the hardest schedule, but they methodically took all of them apart.  Oregon has been practicing in a warehouse with Motorhead-level audio blasting at the offence; the Ducks look properly prepped for this Saturday nights' showdown in Happy Valley Pennsylvania.  The Ducks' road has not been hard so far this year, but it has been Old Testament spitefulness hardship compared to the Penn State schedule.  

  This year the Nittany Lions have not even played a road game; at home they have predictably beaten Nevada, FIU and Villanova.  I could tell you that Oregon should be ranked #3 and that Penn State should not even be in the top 10; that the Ducks have the best defensive lineman in college football, the best trio of linebackers; that they have the better quarterback in Moore, the better running back in Allen, the best wide receiver in yet another Moore; that Oregon is far, far, far better coached.  I could but it will not matter.  Oregon will possibly take the crowd out of this game by the end of the first half.  Yes, Penn State could eek out a win, but that will only mean they will fall harder than ever later in the year to Ohio State in Columbus, Ohio ( they are lucky they do not have to face Michigan this year because the Big 10 now has 40 teams so you may not face some teams for three years).  No, I think Penn State will choke early this year.  I think they will blow this game just like they have done so many times before in big games against highly ranked teams in the James Franklin era.  Oregon and the Nike Endowments will triumph on Saturday night in Happy Valley.  

Bob: New England -5.5 over Carolina

This is a game where we have ascension to the mean and regression to the mean. New England should have won last week at home against Pittsburgh. NE had 26-17 first down edge and in yards they outgained the Steelers 269 to 203. The Pats lost because of five turnovers. Ne lost the turnover battle 5-1 and still could have won the game. They are better than last week and we see them ascending to their level.  Carolina is the opposite.  The Panthers played a near perfect game for them against the Falcons.They won the turnover battle 3-1 and won 30-0 in spite of being outgained by over 100 yards.  The spread has already moved up a point. Let’s take the Patriots to bounce back and get a win at home by at least a touchdown.