STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 6

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2025 record 14-11

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 477-358-15=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER: 7-Point Teaser- Cowboys +4 and 49ers +10.5

In the 14 NFL games last week, nine underdogs covered. Of the six that were favored and won, all six covered. Indy, Jacksonville and Detroit have the best record against the spread at 4-1. This may surprise you, because even though they only scored 10-points last week, Baltimore is the only team that’s gone over every game this year.

I’ve struggled with this week’s games, after so many upsets last week. We’ve done well with our teasers this year, so I’m sticking with them. Carolina has won both their home games this year, but they haven’t faced an offense like Dallas. Although I’m a big fan of Tampa Bay this year, and expect them to win their division again, their largest margin of victory this year has only been 3-points. San Francisco leads the league in passing yards per game. The 49ers are coming off a huge victory over the Rams, as they fly east with 10-days rest, and they’re getting 3-points. So we’re doing another 7-point teaser parley, taking the Cowboys +4 and the 49ers +10.

Man in Stripes:  6 pt teaser- Seattle +7.5/ Bills Falcons over 43.5

Well I hope you survived one of the wackiest, craziest, Bad Beats everywhere weekend.. Started with the 49ers, winning with half their team, Penn St , the Franklin watch in full force in Happy Valley, total no show in Westwood,  then 5 double digits meltdown in the NFL.. The alltimer being the Cardinals, my survivor pick, somehow losing to the pathetic Titans, oh well,  as a gambler, you dust ourselves off and move.. We did avoid the landmines with a comfy Lions 1H win..New week , let's go..

Seattle +7.5 @ Jacksonville, teased thru 3,6, and 7.. Pure situational spot here,  Jags ,coming off a huge MNF win vs KC, they are improved, Trevor Lawrence having a big year so far, but on a short week , the Seahawks , coming off a loss, 7 of their last 8 losses by 7 or less, let's face it 75% of NFL games are 1 score games.. Seattle pass rush is great, Jags O line is not.. Jags had some injuries,  also, this smells a 3 pt game, Sam Darnold puts up at least 24, and keeps it close.

Buff/ Atl over 43.5, one of the key numbers in over/ unders is 44, we will tease this under that in a game where both teams should get to at least 20 easily.. Bills had a clinker last Sunday, under Sean Mc Dermott, the Bills after over 28 points after a loss with JA17 at QB, they are 13-2 L15, going over their team total..The Falcons coming off a bye , should be ready, top 5 rushing attack , with the Bills having the 29th rushing defense,  with lots of injuries and age in the secondary,  and in a dome, Falcons hang at least 24-27 .. This game has at least 50 points plus, but just in case let's lower that number..

A few others 

Blue jays to win it all +250, Truth be told I AM A HUGE JAYS FAN

Sabres to make playoffs+110, every 15 years..

Good luck , let's stay hot.. LETSGOJAYS

Mono: TCU -1.5 over Kansas State

Going with TCU -1.5 @ Kansas State this weekend. K State almost beat Baylor and then they blew a 14 point lead in the 4th quarter. Avery Johnson finally showed up, but Baylor’s defense has been bad all year so I can’t put any stock into it. This TCU team has been rolling offensively. Their defense is good, maybe one of the better units K State has faced so far. Without a mistake ridden final 5 mins in Arizona State a few weeks back, TCU would be undefeated. I think Hoover and McAllister have success in the passing game against a K State team that couldn’t stop Army or North Dakota in their own stadium. This line feels a little stinky, but TCU is the better team regardless of record. After another loss, I’m not sure Kleiman can get these guys up. I’ve been burned backing K State early this year when they laid an egg in Arizona. I believe I placed em on my no bet / fade list. Let’s Fade em here and back the Frogs. TCU -1.5. 

Brutal:    #7 Indiana (+7.5) @  #3 OREGON

  In the early nineteen sixties a young musician named R. Dean Taylor left Canada for Detroit to join Motown records,  He released a few singles and helped produce, arrange and write for the biggest acts on Barry Gordy's label; these included Diana Ross and the Supremes, Stevie Wonder and Marvin Gaye.  Then Mr. Gordy, who was nobody's fool decided to start a new label for white artists.  He called it Rare Earth ( One band eponymously changed their name to Rare Earth so they would be a natural fit and were signed!  They also had several hits in the early seventies.  I think this was a first, because I have yet to come across any bands who named themselves Warner Brothers, Columbia, Polygram or Capitol to get a record deal ).  R. Dean Taylor released the first big hit on Rare Earth records in 1970. "Indiana Wants Me" hit #1 on Cashbox, #5 on Billboard and #1 in Canada.  The song was a first on many levels.  It was the first #1 that was sung from the perspective of a wanted felon and it also featured police sirens that became controversial.  Many stations stopped playing the song because there was general concern that people listening in their cars would cause traffic problems by hastily pulling over or dangerously speeding because they would "Flee the pigs with haste thinking they were being chased by black and whites!  This song was encouraging criminal behaviour!"  The whole thing was ridiculous, but Barry Gordy released an edited, alternate version with the volume of the sirens turned way down.   It only helped sell the single, which also had some misinterpreted lyrics and with the publicity took it into the Top Five!  

   R. Dean Taylor had a follow-up song that was also quite interesting.  "Taos, New Mexico" was a song that featured more criminal perspective singing.  This time R. Dean Taylor is doing time in Taos New Mexico and laments that his trampy girlfriend is not going to be faithful and wait around for him to be released.  This song was not as successful as "Indiana Wants Me," but it featured some of the most infamous misheard raunchy lyrics of all time, right up there with "Louie, Louie," by the Kingsmen, "Blinded by the Light," from the Manfred Mann Earth Band and "Rock and Roll Part One," the flipside and less famous version of the mostly instrumental "Rock and Roll Part Two," by Gary Glitter, but features suggestive or misheard words and is seldom played. 

  "Indiana Wants Me" is still a classic and was even used as theme music in the sports arena for the Indiana Pacers back when they were in the ABA.

  Well, how times change; now lots of top talent entering the transfer portal "Wants Indiana!"  This team has transformed under coach Curt Cignetti who would probably be leaving soon to coach an oligarch club team with deeper pockets, however he has been signed through 2032 and his buyout is 56 million.  He is also roundly despised in college football circles which is kind of badass. ..... so maybe he is going to be in Indiana for awhile. The 63-10 dressing down of Illinois earlier this season ...... is maybe more about Illinois not being that bad, it was just Indiana is this good!  The worst beatdown of a Brett Bielema team since he coached high school was quite real!  This week they go to noisy Autzen Stadium and keep it close in what should be the game of the week.  I will also be playing the Indiana Hoosiers on the Moneyline. 

  Last week we received one of the great BAD BEATS of all time.  Vanderbilt tied at the half; then is driving for the tying touchdown and very uncharacteristically Diego Pavia throws an inexplicable interception.  To top it off, Bama can run out the clock in the fourth quarter if they get a first down, but run they run on fourth down just eat clock, ..... but either the Commodores let them score from 20 yards out with 20 seconds left or the Tide got lucky and scored a very unexpected running TD to win ....  and cover our 11 point spread.  Regardless, despite Pavia having his worst game as a college professional we deserved the win!  The week before that we won with Oregon winning in OT at Happy Valley, and as we predicted the Nittany Lions choked so badly that they could not get over it and promptly went to UCLA and choked again.  This week, I believe that OREGON may be a little overconfident, not Penn State overconfident but just a little unready for this Indiana offence.  Everybody thinks this will be a repeat of Indiana falling hard last year to Ohio State.  However, I believe this Hoosier team is much better than last year's thanks to the portal and QB Fernando Mendoza who is more versatile than last year's starter Kurtis Rourke and may just be the best quarterback in college football this year..

  Hoosiers cover and maybe even win in the Beaver State! 

Bob: Colts -7 over Arizona

Couple of reasons like this play, first of all the Colts are better than anyone expected this year.  They lost one game and should have beaten the Rams in LA. At home this year the Colts are 3-0 and 3-0 ATS.  The Indy offense is rolling behind Daniel Jones. Indy offense is very balanced behind the running of Jonathan Taylor.  If you just look at how the teams have played regardless of preconceived notions then the Colts have played as well as anybody this year. Arizona is coming into this game as a mess.  They blew a 21-6 lead after RB Demercado drops the ball on the half yard line going in for a fourth quarter score. To make matters worse Head Coach Gannon goes ballistic on him on the sidelines. Very understandable in my eyes. The coach gets fined 100,000 and has to apologize. This is another example of the wussification of football.  Somewhere Vince Lombardi, Chuck Noll, Don Shula and Woody Hayes are rolling over in their graves.  This is emblematic of a soft Arizona team that is searching for answers coming into this one. This spread started at 5.5 and is moving up. We will take the Colts at home to beat the wimpy Cardinals.