SUPER BOWL STONE COLD LOCKS

By Bob Gaughan

2025 record 51-54

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 514-401-15=56%

MR. OVER/UNDER: First Score Of Game Will Be A Field Goal +200

Here we are….the final game, the Super Bowl. After raking all the leaves, rotator cuff surgery, asking my neighbor to clear my sidewalk, disappointed that I didn’t have snow on Christmas and doing well with my picks during  the regular season, I’ve totally sucked in the playoffs. Betting before the season started, that the Bills would win their division and the Rams would go to the Super Bowl, I’m faced with two teams in this year’s Super Bowl, that beat the two teams I bet on. So let’s look at some stats.

New England is in the Super Bowl for a record 12^th time. They were victorious in 13 of their last 14 games and are on a 6-game win streak. Seattle won 9 of their last 10 regular season games and is on a 9-game winning streak.  The Patriots had the second highest scoring offense this season with 28.8 points per game. The Seahawks had the third highest scoring offense, with 28.4 point per game. Although it appears Seattle is a more balanced team with a very good defense, don’t overlook the Patriot’s defense. During the regular season, the Patriots allowed an average of 18.8 PPG. During their 3 playoff games, their defense allowed

an average of 8.7 PPG. Although that statistic would probably be different if Denver had been able to play their starting QB.

Underdogs have covered in the last 5 Super Bowls. So with all this information, I’m going back to the same prop bet I always make in the Super Bowl. Both these teams can run the ball and have defenses that can keep the game close. Both Denver and Chicago had opportunities in their playoff games to go for a field goal on 4^th down, but chose not to. Chicago lost by 3, and who knows what might have happened if Denver had gone up 10-0?

In a close game, you should take the points, especially in the first half, if the yardage is reasonable for a field goal. That’s why I always bet that the first score of the game will be a field goal. Sometimes that bet is paired as a field goal or safety. Although both offenses can move the ball, things always get tighter the closer you get to the end zone. Some points are better than no points. Let’s hope the coaches remember that.  See you in the fall.

Man in Stripes:Pats+10.5/ over 39.5 ( 6 pt.  teaser)

I know , I might be on an island here, and I know talent wise the Seahawks could win this by 3 TDs.. But, this is the Super Bowl, weird things happen.. And do we REALLY trust Sam Darnold to play another great game???? In the regular season the Pats had the #2 offense,  and #4 defense.. The offense has struggled in bad weather in the post season.. Weather should be great in Santa Clara,  I feel Drake Maye will play a clean game.. The Seahawks D has been strong, but gave up 500 yards to the Rams in the NFC Championship games, they do give up yards.. I look for Stevenson to run the ball , and the Pats play keep away with it to limit the possessions in the game.. On defense, Vrabel will stack the box, sell out  and take away  Seattle's  running game  and put pressure on Darnold, with blitzing, he’s a different QB when he gets hit. I look for at least 2 TOs from him.. They keep JSN in check enough. Pressure on Seahawks and Darnold, they are the favorite. Pats are number #1  in 1H covering 16-3-1, aka, this game is close going into the second half.. Pats D have caused 8 TOs this post season Darnold has 14 ints in regular season.

The Pats have the better HC, coordinators,  and know how to win close games.. We will tease the number over 6, 7 and even 10.. And I think both these teams get to at least 20.. Lets tease down to 39.5, under the key numbers of 42.

I thought to myself this week,  with what has happened the last few weeks in the 716, how would Bills mafia take the Patriots winning the Super Bowl .. THIS YEAR, with 17 in his prime, with a rookie HC, and a 2nd year QB.. In the last season at Highmark.. Get ready to find out!!!! The ULTIMATE twisting of the knife.. The Bills Super Bowl for 2025, goes to the Pats 27-24.. And that noise you hear Bills Mafia is the  door getting closer to shutting completely!!!

Some others props

Over 45.5

Stevenson td

JSN 8+ receptions

Darnold over 5yds rushing

Walker over 21 yds rec

MONO: OVER 1.5 INTERCEPTIONS +125

This week doesn’t really feel like your classic Super Bowl build up. Maybe it’s just in Buffalo. You watch Darnold and Maye take questions and it feels like it should’ve been Stafford and Allen up there. Yeah, must be a Buffalo feeling.

This week gives us an opportunity to get as creative as we have all year. We hit an anytime TD with Davante Adams a couple weeks ago. Let’s stay creative, but to the other side of the ball. Let’s take over 1.5 total interceptions for the game at +125. My buddies and I like to call this a “hater” play. Maye has 2 interceptions this postseason. He didn’t throw one last week, but that’s because they couldn’t throw the ball. He’s known to take some chances and I think this Seahawks defense and secondary will force him into at least one if not multiple.

You go to the other side and Darnold has been mistake free this postseason. The Pats defense has forced 5 interceptions this postseason, although that’s includes the 4 CJ Stroud threw in the divisional round. The Pats D has been lights out this postseason, and I think they can force Darnold into a tight window and pick him off. The number sits at 1.5 and in a perfect world, each guy throws 1. In this matchup, I can see one guy throwing 2 or more. Let’s hate on 2 QBs that aren’t #17 and take the over 1.5 interceptions for a little bit of + money.  

Brutal: Seattle (-4.5) @ NEW ENGLAND 

"Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel." 

                                     circa 1775, Samuel Johnson 

"Patriotism is the last refuge to which a scoundrel clings." 

                             paraphrase 1980 Bob Dylan 

I hate the New England Patriots.  I will try to however assess this Super Bowl #60 without any emotional bias: 

Seattle has arguably been the best, most balanced team in the NFL this year who had by far the most consistent season. 

The Seahawk defense is probably all-time great or close to all-time great. New England's is Vrabelesque, meaning solid but not special.  

 Seattle has won lots of games here in Santa Clara on this field beating up the 49rs who are better than New England. There will also be way more Seattle fans coming to the Bay Area than slimy, insufferable, cheapskate New England boosters. 

QB Sam Darnold has his detractors, but even though he didn't play in them, he has been to two previous Super Bowls with the 49rs.  He has gone through this two week hype machine before and QB Drake Maye of the Patriots has not.  Maye has some injury issues.  The Patriots were lucky to beat Denver who was missing their starting QB.  Except running for that winning touchdown, Drake Maye's stats were atrocious in Colorado, and it wasn't just because of the weather.  In fact he has been mediocre throughout the playoffs and now he clearly has some injury issues in his upper body. I didn't love Maye at North Carolina, but you knew he would be a decent pro, but probably not great and he has had a great season.  Now it appears that the league has caught up to Drake and New England who really flew under the radar this year, but benefited absolutely, .......extremely, ....... tremendously from a last-place schedule.  

Seattle is by far the best team New England will face this year.  Both teams have good defensive lines, but Seattle's entire defense is special ( Maybe not Cam Chandler, Richard Sherman, Malcom Smith special, but pretty domineering ).  I will be surprised if they don't sack Drake hard & often and get a turnover early.  We are taking the spread, knowing that Seattle, like the Indiana Hoosiers might settle for a too conservative game plan & field goal win and thus screw us on that 4.5 point spread, ....... but, .... I don't thinks so.  Seattle is certainly capable of winning this by two field goals to cover if the game stays close for the duration and is low scoring.  However, I think New England's offence will struggle, ....... struggle like their near ancestors struggled 46-10 against the Chicago Bears in 1986!  The horror! The horror! ......... an ancient Steve Grogan limping off the bench to replace a crumpled Tony Eason at quarterback, ...... sack, sack, fumble, sack, pick-six, ...... the horror, the horror, ......... seven yards net rushing for the afternoon, ....... Richard Dent, Richard Dent,...... yes, this will be like that Patriots team, ....... not the insipid Brady-Belichick years of Spy-gate, Deflate-gate and Bubonic Plague, Dark Ages of Boring Football-gate.

-The Seahawks will create some turnovers and their special teams will probably score a TD.  I would not be surprised if this is a blow out.  The weak-sauce offense of Drake Maye and the Patriots will result in them having to take chances, ..... and they will disintegrate. 

As we mentioned in a previous posting, the seahawk is a real, majestic and very rare giant carnivore that soars over the ocean. 

A patriot is a reference that others bestow upon you, not a self-righteous platitude you bestow upon your person or property. 

I like the Seattle uniforms, especially the original color scheme they employed in the 1970's.  The totem head of the sea eagle is tasteful and a nod to the indigenous tribes of the Great Northwest. 

The original New England uniform with the uniformed Minuteman-Continental Army soldier snapping the ball was different, quirky, .... and appropriately in-line with the New England region's history.  However, the uniform they wear now, .... the one that makes us all sick from the Brady years, ...... is one of the stupidest, most nauseating designs of all time.  The color scheme has more exploding red, white and blue than the opening credits to "Love American Style!"  

The logo looks like a US Postal Service decal you would see on the side of a mail box or mail truck that has been processed by a lesser artist who pathetically tried to channel what it would look like if Salvador Dali took too much LSD and painted the New England football helmets himself.

I think that was a totally rational, analytics based, non emotional assessment of this Super Bowl.  

Seahawks, giving the 4.5 points in an inspired, big game win that easily covers this spread. 

P. S.  I pray to any deity or group of deities that might possibly exist that Sam Darnold continues to balance his medications properly till Sunday.

Bob: More Points in Second Half than First Half

This is similar thinking to why Mr. Over/Under always likes a field goal as your first score.  At the start of the game I see both teams feeling each other out and not taking as many chances as they will in the second half.  In the second half when both teams have seen what the other team is throwing at them they will take more chances and in turn I believe score more points.  The Seattle defense is elite allowing only 16 points the last five games. I can’t see New England scoring much early against Seattle.  The New England defense has been great as well as of late.  The Pats run defense has been stout and they have been getting after the passer in the playoffs.  I like this bet in most Super Bowls but really like this bet this year with these two teams that I think will get off to a slow start and will not be clicking offensively until the second half.