TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF BILLS-BUCCANEERS
- Tony Fiorello
- Nov 16
- 19 min read
by Tony Fiorello
Welcome to Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the Buffalo Bills’ upcoming opponent and what each team might do to emerge victorious.
The Bills’ tenth game of 2025 will take place at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York as they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Here’s what you should know:
BUCS’ OFFENSE IS BANGED UP BUT HUMMING
The last few years have been seasons of change for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – especially on offense. Names who have headed out the door recently include Bruce Arians, Byron Leftwich, Dave Canales, Liam Cohen, Tom Brady, Donovan Smith, Alex Cappa, Ted Larsen, Ali Marpet, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Scotty Miller, Cameron Brate and Leonard Fournette. That’s a lot of talent – some will be headed to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in a few years – and the Bucs, naturally, have had to start over on this side of the ball.
One of the most important offensive figures that arrived on Florida’s West Coast over the last two seasons was ex-play caller Liam Cohen in 2024. Cohen, a former coordinator with the Los Angeles Rams, brought a version of Sean McVay’s block of the West Coast offense to the Bucs and the scheme has been effective. It’s one with plenty of under-center play-action, shifts, motions, high-low concepts and downfield option routes with defined reads. The system is still intact now that Josh Grizzard has taken over following Cohen’s defection to the Jacksonville Jaguars to become their head coach.
The other is signal caller Baker Mayfield. Mayfield, the first overall draft pick in 2018, had a solid start in the pros with the Cleveland Browns but eventually flamed out there. After short stints with the Rams and Carolina Panthers, Mayfield has resurrected his career by the Gulf of Mexico by setting career highs in multiple categories, and has displayed good pocket movement while keeping his eyes downfield and going through his progressions.
Mayfield is known for being an aggressive downfield passer. According to former MMQB/SI writer Andy Benoit, “(Mayfield) extends plays with his feet, but only when necessary, relying first on his outstanding timing and accuracy, especially on seam balls and underneath throws from spread formations. More impressive are the passes Mayfield does not make; he has a veteran’s sense for getting off of bad reads. And when he does get fooled into the occasional turnover, he continues to be aggressive.”
Helping Mayfield out is a pair of dangerous options in the passing game. Wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, two fast and big-bodied red zone targets, are among the NFL’s best one-two punches. They’re especially effective in three-by-one trips formations (with Evans as the backside receiver) and in bunch with Godwin as the point man, but Godwin and Evans are both out for this game with injuries. In their place are a pair of rookies in first-round draft pick Emeka Egbuka (a savvy route runner with great balance and body control), the smaller but speedy Tez Johnson and former New York Giant Sterling Shepard. Tight end Cade Otton is a short-to-intermediate pass-catching threat as well as a good blocker, and he and Payne Durham operate out of many “12” personnel packages (one back, two tight ends).
The three-headed monster of Bucky Irving (out for Sunday, but displays good power and explosiveness), Rachaad White (a solid receiver) and Sean Tucker (who is good at a little bit of everything) runs behind an offensive line composed of Tristan Wirfs, Ben Bredeson (out with an injury), Graham Barton, Dan Feeney and Luke Goedeke. Their favorite rushing tactic is counter.
One year after Tampa Bay’s offense was near the bottom of the NFL in points scored (20th), total yards (23rd), rushing yards (last) and passing (17th), they were third in total yards and rushing, and fourth in passing and scoring. So far the Bucs are 11th in scoring, 17th in total yards, 25th in rushing, 24th in red zone efficiency and 14th in passing.
TAMPA’S DEFENSE IS AGGRESSIVE AND COMPLEX
Head coach Todd Bowles – one of the NFL’s better defensive minds – runs a 3-4 scheme that is characterized by multiple fronts and blitzes and uses plenty of stunts and slants at the line of scrimmage to apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks and beating pass protection schemes. On the back end, Bowles prefers disguised zone coverages and man-press to take away quick throws and disrupt timing between wideouts and pass distributors – a stark contrast to the old “Tampa Two” zone coverage that the Buccaneers leaned on for years.
Like their offense, the Bucs have had a bit of a changing of the guard on defense. Gone are the likes of Devin White, Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh, Shaq Barrett and Steve McClendon, but it seems as if Bowles and company have survived these losses better than on the other side of the ball.
Tampa Bay has an excellent front-seven up front. Vita Vea is the team’s top lineman and may very well be the best 3-4 nose tackle in all of football. He is joined by Calijah Kancey (out for the season with a torn pec, replaced by Eliah Roberts) and Logan Hall. Haason Reddick (out for Sunday), Yaya Diaby and Anthony Nelson are at outside linebacker.
Inside linebacker Lavonte David has been one of the best at his position in pro football for years and he is excellent in coverage and blitzing. He’s joined by SirVocea Dennis, an emerging talent who sometimes struggles in coverage. In the secondary is one of the NFL’s better safety tandems in Antoine Winfield Jr. Tykee Smith (both are rangy and can also blitz) and cornerbacks Jamel Dean, Zyon McCollum and Ben Morrison.
A constant theme for this side of the ball since 2020, the Bucs are good in certain areas and struggle in others. They finished 2024 tied for 16th in takeaways, 16th in points allowed, 18th in total yards given up and 29th versus the pass, but fourth against the run and tied for sixth in sacks. This year they’re tied for seventh in takeaways, 21st in red zone defense, 14th in points surrendered, 20th in total yards, 24th against the pass and 11th versus the run, and – naturally – they enter Sunday’s game with the fifth-highest blitz percentage in the NFL.
BUFFALO’S DEFENSE USUALLY GOOD, BUT HAS HAD A ROUGH 2024 AND ‘25
For most of head coach Sean McDermott’s time in Buffalo, the Bills’ defense was one of the league’s best. Points allowed (fourth in the NFL in that category in 2023), total yards per game allowed (ninth), passing yards given up (seventh), rushing yards surrendered (15th), takeaways (third), interceptions (tied for fourth) and sacks (fourth, tied for second-most in their history with the 2014 team) have generally been the categories that the Bills have excelled at over the years, with 2023’s sack total being the best of the McDermott era.
2024, however, was a year of transition for the Bills on defense. Due to age and salary cap complications, out the door were longtime veterans such as Jordan Poyer and Tyrel Dodson (Miami Dolphins), Tre’Davious White (Baltimore Ravens), Leonard Floyd (San Francisco 49ers, who had 10.5 sacks a year ago – the most of any Bill since Lorenzo Alexander in 2016), Linval Joseph (Dallas Cowboys), Tim Settle (Houston Texans), Kaylon “Poona” Ford (Los Angeles Chargers), Dane Jackson (Carolina Panthers) and Shaq Lawson.
Especially when one includes names from the past on the defensive line such as Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Star Lotulelei, Quinton Jefferson, Carlos “Boogie” Basham, Trent Murphy, Vernon Butler, Justin Zimmer, Efe Obada, Harrison Phillips, Dawuane Smoot, Austin Johnson and Casey Toohill – that’s a lot of turnover during the last eight years. The answer, according to McDermott, general manager Brandon Beane and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich, is youth and cheap veterans to provide cost-effective depth (Buffalo made it to the AFC title game last year with the third-most dead money on the salary cap in the NFL and used just 71 percent of the cap).
Some of those younger players – albeit young veterans since they are in their fifth and sixth professional seasons, respectively – who have been asked to take on a greater role include Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who can both line up on the edge and go inside in passing situations. Da’Quan Jones, perhaps their best run-stuffing lineman, is effective on T-T stunts with Ed Oliver (out for the rest of the regular season), an excellent gap penetrator.
They are backed up by a familiar face in Jordan Phillips and second-year men Javon Solomon and DeWayne Carter (Carter is out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon) while rookies Deone Walker, T.J. Sanders and Landon Jackson (currently injured) learn the ropes of the NFL. Ex-Charger Joey Bosa, a five-time Pro Bowler and 10-year pro, will fill the role that future Hall of Famer Von Miller settled into after a torn ACL 11 games into his first season compromised his play on the field. Additionally, veterans Larry Ogunjobi and Michael Hoecht provide valuable depth (Hoecht, out for the season after tearing his Achilles tendon, is an intelligent and versatile chess piece who can be deployed in multiple ways).
Over the years Buffalo has been inconsistent in two areas – creating a consistent pass rush and stopping the run. The run issues are mainly caused by poor tackling (their missed and broken tackle percentage has been among the highest in the NFL for years), a lack of gap integrity and ability to get off blocks, subpar eye discipline, inefficient communication and an inability to handle motion and misdirection (which causes issues with leverage, spacing and run fits). Perhaps the infusion of new faces this season can eventually put those issues to bed once and for all, but they’ve reared their ugly heads yet again in 2025.
Schematically the Bills’ defense mostly relies on basic zones after the snap (they’re typically among the top units in the NFL in usage of coverages with two high safeties such as Cover Two, Four and Six, although they’ve used more single-high man coverages recently so they could put more bodies in the box to stop the run and to limit communication) but before the snap it is complex. Safety rotations to disguise their intentions keep opposing quarterbacks guessing and selective pressure looks at the line of scrimmage and coverage exchanges are the team’s calling cards.
Those blitz looks usually happen in the A-gaps with the smaller, but smart, speedy and athletic Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard to confuse opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks, but Buffalo rarely sends five or more pass rushers – their favorite blitz tactic besides A-gappers are four-man zone exchanges. In 2024’s regular season they were 27th in blitz rate but Buffalo blitzed Lamar Jackson on 15 out of 31 drop-backs (48.4%) in the playoffs, their fifth-highest blitz rate in a game under McDermott and their highest in a game since Week 15 of 2021, according to Next Gen Stats.
Bernard has become a good blitzer and coverage ‘backer – his 6.5 sacks in 2023 were the most by an off-the-ball linebacker in Bills annals and he became the first NFL player since Seth Joyner in 1991 with six sacks, three picks and three fumble recoveries in a season. He and Milano are also adept at being used to spy quarterbacks – they spied Jackson on every third down in last year’s postseason – but Bernard, like most of the Bills, has dealt with injuries and hasn’t quite looked like himself.
For the third straight year, Milano suffered another major injury – this time a pectoral problem (although he’s healthy enough to play as of now). When he misses time, backup Dorian Williams usually picks up the slack. Williams displays flashes of quickness and burst but is sometimes slow to key and diagnose at the line of scrimmage. He also takes many false steps and needs to process better while in coverage, but is athletic, long and fluid and has improved with more experience game by game. He had increased playing time in the playoffs to stop Baltimore’s running game, as evidenced by being on the field for a third of Buffalo’s snaps.
Additional depth comes from former Carolina Panther Shaq Thompson (out for Sunday) and Joe Andreessen. Andreessen, a University at Buffalo product who hails from nearby Lancaster, showed excellent diagnostic skills at the line of scrimmage in the preseason while also displaying strong hands, a quick downhill trigger that allows him to shoot gaps well and some speed and range. It helps that he played in a similar role as Milano while in college. Thompson, meanwhile, has turned back the clock with some strong performances in pass coverage.
The Bills have mainly utilized nickel personnel, as evidenced by Buffalo using five defensive backs between 90 and 100 percent of their snaps since 2020 but their percentage of 4-3 base personnel has gone up this year to combat the run. When Milano is out with injury, they also increase their usage of dime personnel with three safeties to help offset his loss in pass coverage and in the past, that setup featured Poyer near the line of scrimmage, Micah Hyde and ex-Ram Taylor Rapp on the back end.
The Bills’ safety position is currently manned by the aging but still capable Poyer and Cole Bishop (an underrated and cerebral athlete). Rapp, who is better playing near the line of scrimmage and the rangy and physical but inconsistent Damar Hamlin are both on injured reserve.
At the boundary cornerback spots are White (who, like Poyer, is back after a year away to replace Rasul Douglas) and Christian Benford and they are backed up by the tall and physical Ja’Marcus Ingram, Dane Jackson (another experienced face back on the practice squad) and speedy rookies Max Hairston and Dorian Strong (also on injured reserve). Slot corner Taron Johnson remains strong in the quickness and tackling departments and he’s backed up by Cam Lewis and rookie Jordan Hancock, who can both fill in at safety too.
2024 saw the Bills end the regular season 11th in points allowed, 12th against the run, 17th in total yards, tied for 18th in sacks and 24th versus the pass. They were also 29th in third down percentage, gave up the most completions, yards and touchdowns in the NFL on screen plays and allowed nine touchdowns on plays of four seconds or longer – the most in the league according to Cover 1’s Eric Turner. However, they were third in takeaways and were fifth-best in allowing plays of 20 yards or more.
Yet the team’s start to the 2025 season has been quite uneven. Although they’re third versus the pass, they’re just 11th in points allowed, 14th in total yards given up and red zone efficiency and third-last versus the run (giving up 147.6 yards a game on the ground, it’s the highest figured they’ve yielded through nine games since 2012). The Bills also aren’t getting the amount of takeaways they normally do, committed too many penalties as of late and have given up nine touchdowns of 20 yards or more – they allowed just seven all of last year. Clearly McDermott – who has had a bigger say in play-calling on gameday lately – and Babich have their work cut out for them on this side of the ball.
BILLS’ OFFENSE IS UPPER-ECHELON, BUT QUESTIONS PERSIST ABOUT PASSING GAME
For five consecutive seasons, the Bills boasted one of the NFL’s elite offenses for the first time since the K-Gun was running roughshod over the league more than 30 years ago. Led by quarterback Josh Allen’s improved processing skills both pre and post-snap, ball placement, patience within the pocket and touch on passes and a cadre of gifted pass-catchers, those factors allowed Buffalo to become one of the most feared attacks in pro football (last year Allen was ninth in passer rating and rushing touchdowns and tied for seventh in passing scores).
In 2023 the Bills were sixth in scoring, fourth in total yards, seventh in rushing and eighth in passing. They were also fifth in red zone efficiency, yet their offense performed poorly over a six-game stretch where they averaged just 20.5 points per game. It resulted in then-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey getting the boot in favor of quarterbacks coach and former Carolina Panthers play-caller Joe Brady.
Like their defensive counterparts, the Bills went through changes on this side of the ball because of age, the salary cap and a new coordinator. With Brady taking over the role full-time, the biggest philosophical question on offense for Buffalo was how to retain elements of what made them so good in the first place while adding new and fresh concepts.
Between 2018 and ‘23, Buffalo’s offense was an Erhardt-Perkins system brought in from New England by then-coordinator Brian Daboll. It was built upon concepts involving option and crossing routes from the slot, downfield routes from the outside, run-pass options (especially in the red zone), designed quarterback runs to take advantage of Allen’s mobility and alignments that created favorable matchups and some trick plays with jet/orbit motion and sweeps. It was mostly out of “11” personnel groupings (one back, one tight end and three wide receivers) and “10” personnel (one back, no tight ends, four receivers) – and they would also go no-huddle from time to time to limit the opposition’s defensive calls.
The Bills’ multi-receiver sets were traditionally their offensive calling card. In 2020 they used four wide receivers or more 155 times – the second-most in the NFL at the time – and they utilized someone in motion on 43 percent of their offensive snaps, a huge increase from their 25 percent rate in 2019. Daboll, the ex-head coach of the New York Giants, also called for a passing play on 64 percent of their first downs, according to ESPN Stats and Information (no team with a winning record in the prior 20 years did it more than Buffalo) and that rate continued in 2021 and ’22 with “11” personnel used on nearly three-quarters of their plays.
Daboll’s successor, Ken Dorsey, got away from some of those concepts and tried to rely on the talent at his disposal winning one-on-one matchups instead of having the scheme get them open. Once Brady was promoted, the Bills returned to them. He also included more under-center formations and play-action (which can still stand to increase after being a top-four team in run-fakes in 2020 and ’21), pre-snap shifts, motions and designed passes to running backs and route combinations with defined reads for Allen so he can play within timing and structure, but he does need to be better at creating spacing in his route concepts – especially at the intermediate levels.
Brady got his start in the NFL working for the New Orleans Saints and then-coach Sean Payton. Payton himself came from a melting pot of a background including stints running the Erhardt-Perkins scheme for Bill Parcells in Dallas and learning the West Coast offense from Jim Fassel with the New York Giants and from Jon Gruden during their one-year stint together in Philadelphia in 1997, so Brady will bring a similar approach to the table while likely keeping some things the same in Buffalo.
Their biggest transaction on offense last year was trading the aging Stefon Diggs to Houston. Diggs (now in New England), while never a burner on the outside, was an exceptional route runner who specialized in making contested catches and operated well out of bunch and stack formations – leading him to re-write many of the Bills’ single season receiving records.
In addition to Diggs, Buffalo has let veterans like John Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty and Amari Cooper walk over the years. Many of them were productive, but nothing can last forever – hence the overhaul of the Bills’ wide receiver room.
The Payton offense is built through having big, physical targets who can get open over the middle of the field, especially on deep in-cuts, or “dig” routes (although Buffalo hasn’t utilized them much). Payton has employed such players in those roles before like Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Michael Thomas and Courtland Sutton, and the drafting of Keon Coleman from Florida State last year fits the bill for Brady.
Coleman, whose game evoked comparisons to Colston, Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin coming out of college, brings size and physicality to the boundary ‘X’ position (and possibly the slot) with good body control and strong hands to make contested catches and has some run after the catch ability. He does need to work on his speed, quickness and ability to beat press coverage (along with learning how to be a pro athlete), but in time he may improve in those areas.
Along with Coleman is Curtis Samuel, who can line up both in the slot and outside the numbers and take handoffs and free agent pickups Joshua Palmer, Elijah Moore and the speedy Mecole Hardman. Shifty pass-catcher Khalil Shakir mans the slot with his quickness, sure hands and savviness to get open versus zone coverage, Gabriel Davis has returned to the practice squad to supply depth and Tyrell Shavers could prove to be a new weapon after making the team’s active roster out of training camp. Overall, this group doesn’t possess a ton of speed beyond Hardman – which makes the ability to manufacture intermediate and vertical plays harder.
Tight end Dawson Knox is joined by Dalton Kincaid and their diverse skillsets have allowed the Bills to throw curveballs at opponents with multiple tight end sets. Kincaid (out for Sunday), who can line up as the boundary ‘X’ receiver in three-by-one alignments, lived up to the hype with 73 receptions as a rookie two years ago, the most of any first-year Bill and surpassed Pete Metzelaars for the most catches by a Bills tight end in one season. He also became the fourth rookie tight end since 1960 with 70 or more catches in a year.
The Bills’ offensive line is composed of Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern (taking over at center for the departed Mitch Morse), O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown. This crew, along with fullback Reggie Gilliam has mainly executed outside zone runs along with zone-reads, pin-and-pull concepts, traps (especially with Dawkins as the puller), counters, sweeps, split inside zone/duo and sprint draw plays sprinkled in for running back James Cook. Cook, who boasts great vision, patience and burst, is backed up by physical second-year man Ray Davis and ex-Jet Ty Johnson brings solid receiving skills to the table.
The starting front five used to be iffy in providing push in the running game and in pass protection but has become a strength in recent years. In the past, most of the team’s rushing production came from Allen’s legs and few came from their backs – the Bills’ rushing attempts per game in 2022, 18.2, was last in the NFL but that number has jumped to the highest in the NFL since Brady was promoted. In 2023 Allen was taken down just 24 times overall in 17 regular season outings, the best mark in pro football, and the team again led the league with just 14 sacks allowed last year (tied for the sixth-least since 2000).
Buffalo also carried over their trend of using an extra offensive lineman to help in the running game. Now that Edwards has moved into the starting lineup, the sixth guy is currently Alec Anderson and the Bills had the highest rate of offensive snaps with six linemen on the field in ’24 – with most of them being called runs, and were near the top of the NFL in yards per carry and yards per play with six linemen on the field (rookie tight end Jackson Hawes, an excellent blocker and the replacement for Quintin Morris, is being used more in this regard with “13” personnel looks which diversifies what they can throw at opponents).
Another area the Bills needed to clean up was protecting the ball. They used to be one the league’s sloppiest teams – Allen had 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles in 2022 and he led the NFL with 18 interceptions in ’23. Last year Allen cut down on his interception total significantly with just six – a sign of progress in this regard (Allen became the third signal caller in NFL history to start a season with 10 touchdowns and no picks through his team’s first seven games).
In fact, the Bills tied the league record for fewest turnovers in a season with just eight (with the 2019 Saints). They also became the first team ever with less than 15 sacks allowed and fewer than 15 turnovers in the same season.
Buffalo ended the 2024 regular season second in points scored (the highest scoring team in franchise history) and red zone efficiency, 10th in total yards and ninth in rushing and passing and became the first team to ever have 30 passing and 30 rushing touchdowns in one season. They, along with the Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders, were also the top four teams in the NFL on fourth down conversion rate – so far they’re first in the NFL in rushing, second in total yards, sixth in points scored and seventh in red zone efficiency but 12th in passing.
Ex-49er Mitch Wishnowsky is the team’s third punter this year and kicker Tyler Bass has missed time due to a groin injury – with 41-year-old former All-Pro Matt Prater replacing him. Prater, who holds the NFL record for most 50-plus yards field goals in a career, also owned the league mark for longest career field goal after he connected on a 64-yarder in 2013.
12 STATS TO MUSE OVER
· Buffalo faced eight-man boxes 32 percent of the time in 2024, the most in the NFL according to Cover 1’s Erik Turner. It’s a stark contrast to the prior four years in which they went against them 16 percent of the time in 2020 (32nd), 18.6 in ’21 (27th), 20.4 in ’22 (20th) and 19.9 in ’23 (19th).
· Allen had 40 combined scores for the fifth straight year in 2024 – no other quarterback has done it more than three times (Drew Brees from 2011-13) – allowing him to be named the NFL’s Most Valuable Player by the Associated Press, an honor previously bestowed upon just two other Bills (Thurman Thomas in 1991 and O.J. Simpson in ‘73).
· Allen surpassed Joe Cribbs for fourth in franchise history in rushing last week. However, he has had multiple turnovers in three of his last five games.
· Buffalo has forced a turnover in 17 straight home games – their longest streak since a 31-game outing from 1988-92.
· Curiously, the Bills have just a 4-4 mark against teams with a winning record since last year.
· McDermott can reach 100 career wins (including playoffs) with his next and can become the sixth ever to do it in his first nine seasons – joining George Seifert, Paul Brown, John Madden, Joe Gibbs and Mike McCarthy.
· In last week’s 30-13 loss to Miami, the Bills suffered their worst loss to Miami since 2011. They also didn’t convert on third down once in the first half and also went their first seven possessions of a game without scoring any points for the first time since the 2019 season opener at the New York Jets.
· Buffalo also tied their season-high in turnovers with three – something they didn’t do at all a year ago.
· The Bills are 3-0 all-time in Orchard Park against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (although they’re 5-8 against them all-time). They also haven’t lost a home game to an NFC opponent since 2022.
· Should Joey Bosa record another forced fumble this year, it would be his fifth of the year and would tie the franchise record for most forced fumbles in a season.
· Since 2020 Buffalo’s regular season record at home has been 39-8 – a league-best winning percentage of 83.
· The Bills are 9-0 in the 1 p.m. timeslot at home since 2023.
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