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TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF BILLS-RAVENS

Tony Fiorello

by Tony Fiorello

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 12: Sean McDermott head coach of the Buffalo Bills motions on the sidelines during the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium on January 12, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)


Welcome to the 2024 NFL season’s Divisional Round Weekend. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the upcoming playoff games and what each team might do to emerge victorious.


One of the AFC’s divisional round games will take place at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York as the Baltimore Ravens will face the Buffalo Bills. Here’s what you should know:

BALTIMORE, MD - JANUARY 11: Lamar Jackson #8 and Derrick Henry #22 of the Baltimore Ravens in action against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first half of the AFC Wild Card Playoff game at M&T Bank Stadium on January 11, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)


RAVENS WILL RUN, RUN AND RUN SOME MORE

Before the 2019 season began, longtime Ravens head coach John Harbaugh promoted former Bills and San Francisco 49ers offensive play-caller Greg Roman to replace the outgoing Marty Mornhinweg. The top priority for Roman was quarterback Lamar Jackson, who is one of the most gifted quarterbacks in pro football and already a two-time league MVP.


According to Bucky Brooks of nfl.com, “As a passer, Jackson has shown tremendous progress. He has significantly improved his completion rate and passer rating while displaying a better overall feel for the game from the pocket. He’s at his best throwing the ball down the seams or on in-breaking routes between the numbers on traditional dropbacks and play-action passes. Although he remains a work in progress on throws to the outside, the Ravens have built their offense around the strengths of his game and by allowing him to be himself.”


Roman had experience working with mobile quarterbacks like Tyrod Taylor and Colin Kaepernick and had previously installed successful concepts for both of his former signal-callers like sweeps, zone-read options, triple options, quarterback counters and RPOs. Jackson used those same ideas and took them to another level in 2019, as he shattered Michael Vick’s league record for rushing yards in a season by a quarterback and became the first passer in NFL history to run for more than 1,000 yards and throw for 35 or more touchdowns.


That same year the Ravens also became the first team to average 200 rushing and passing yards per game in one campaign and set a new standard for rushing yardage in a season with 3,296. 2020 saw many of the same results, as Jackson became the first signal caller to rush for 1,000 yards in consecutive years and Baltimore also put up 3,071 yards – the first team ever to accumulate 3,000 yards on the ground in back-to-back years.


2021’s output wasn’t quite as good as in past years due to multiple injuries, but the Ravens ended the 2022 campaign with 2,720 yards rushing (good for second-best in the NFL) and led the league in rushing again in 2023. But as much as Baltimore has dominated on the ground through the years, however, the same couldn’t be said about their passing attack. This led to the ouster of Roman in favor of Todd Monken, a former coordinator in Tampa Bay and Cleveland who had helped the Georgia Bulldogs win back-to-back national championships at the college level.


Monken has helped Jackson by wisely keeping many of their rushing schemes from the past and has expanded the Ravens’ passing game through clever usage of offensive sets, play-action, misdirection, motion and route concepts with defined reads to give him confidence right off the bat and to impact second level defenders’ eye discipline. Those passes are typically thrown to speedsters like Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers (listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game) while veteran Nelson Agholor provides depth and experience. Jackson, meanwhile, has put up career-highs in both passing yards (sixth in the NFL) and passing touchdowns (tied for second).


Used even more than their receivers are tight ends Mark Andrews (who can attack both the intermediate and vertical levels of defenses) and Isaiah Likely. Those two will be on the field at any given time, as the Ravens are one of the league leaders in usage of “12” (one back, two tight ends), “22” (two backs, two tight ends), “21” (two backs, one tight end) and “13” (one back, three tight ends) personnel. But they aren’t just weapons in the passing game – they’re also utilized heavily on the ground as blockers for Jackson, running backs Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell and fullback Patrick Ricard.


That feared running game has been boosted even further by the acquisition of one of the NFL’s best running backs. Even though he lacks great quickness, Derrick Henry boasts an abundance of speed, power and strength in his game – allowing him to become just the eighth tailback ever to rush for 2,000 yards in a season in 2020 and having over 1,900 yards on the ground this year.


Baltimore’s offensive line is characterized by man-blocking, pulling guards and power runs (especially wham-trap – a Harbaugh favorite) and stalwarts Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum are the team’s building blocks up front. The other three starters – Patrick Mekari, Daniel Faalele (who lacks quickness and can be exploited in pass protection) and Roger Rosengarten – have replaced the outgoing Morgan Moses, Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson. Curiously, the Ravens didn’t feature any snaps with six offensive linemen all season until last week against Pittsburgh (16 snaps).


Kicker Justin Tucker remains one of the league’s elite at his position, but has curiously struggled this season.


In addition to their running prowess the Ravens’ offense was good in other areas a year ago. They were sixth in total yards and fourth in scoring but just 21st in passing – additionally they became just the third team in the Super Bowl era (joining the 1985 Chicago Bears and 1972 Miami Dolphins) to score 25-plus points-per-game while leading the NFL in rushing offense and scoring defense.


Baltimore was also the second team (along with the 2007 New England Patriots) with a point differential of 100 or greater against other playoff teams, and the Ravens became the fourth team since 1970 with a first-team All-Pro quarterback and the NFL’s first-ranked scoring defense. In 2024 the Ravens led the NFL in total yardage and rushing while finishing seventh in passing, and third in scoring and on third down.

BALTIMORE, MD - JANUARY 11: George Pickens #14 of the Pittsburgh Steelers makes a catch against Brandon Stephens #21, Marlon Humphrey #44, Roquan Smith #0, and Kyle Hamilton #14 during the second half of the AFC Wild Card Playoff game at M&T Bank Stadium on January 11, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)


BALTIMORE’S DEFENSE TRADITIONALLY AN EXCELLENT UNIT

Typically the more-discussed unit on their team thanks to legendary coaches and players on that side of the ball over the years, Baltimore’s defense is being overshadowed for once. Not to be outdone by their counterparts on offense, the Ravens usually have one of the better groups of defenders in football – finishing 2023 sixth in total defense, first in sacks, points allowed and takeaways (becoming the first defense ever to accomplish all three in one year), 14th against the run and seventh in defending the pass.


They do all this while being one of the most effective blitzing defenses in the NFL and mostly do so on overload and fire zone rushes out of single-high coverage looks and multiple fronts while controlling two gaps up front at a time. Baltimore also likes to use man coverage on third and medium or longer most of the time – a departure from league norms.


But having lost stalwarts like Patrick Queen, Geno Stone and Jadeveon Clowney to free agency and play-caller Mike Macdonald to a head coaching job in Seattle, the Ravens underperformed defensively in the early part of this season. They’re still voluminous in their subpackage groupings (they use traditional nickel, big nickel with a third safety, dime with three safeties instead of a fourth cornerback and dime with four safeties and two corners), but there wasn’t as much detail in their simulated pressure schemes – meaning their blitzes had been easier to figure out. Additionally, their secondary struggled while blowing coverages with poor communication and bad tackling.


To try and correct these errors, the Ravens made a few changes to their defensive backs. Rookie first round draft pick Nate Wiggins has accumulated more playing time on the outside, allowing Marlon Humphrey to move into the slot in traditional nickel packages. Brandon Stephens is the other starter on the boundary (he can be exploited – in base, he plays on the right side while Humphrey is on the left) and former Bills All-Pro Tre’Davious White provides valuable depth. Safety Marcus Williams was benched in favor of Ar’Darius Washington, and Kyle Hamilton – who, like Humphrey, is also effective in the slot and is a good blitzer – was moved to the back end full-time. He can be moved around often in pre-snap disguises due to his great range.


Now coordinated by former linebacker Zach Orr (who decided to bring back mentor and former Ravens play caller Dean Pees a few months ago for support), Baltimore has never lacked in talent among its front seven and this year has been no exception. Defensive linemen Michael Pierce, Travis Jones, Broderick Washington and Nnamdi Madubuike are solid run-stuffers (Madubuike had a breakthrough in the pass rush department with 13.5 sacks last year) and veterans Odafe Oweh and the versatile Kyle Van Noy are the team’s best outside linebackers.


Former Chicago Bear Roquan Smith and Malik Harrison are their inside linebackers and are one of the best duos in the NFL as they can cover and stop the run with ease. Smith has elite instincts and is great at setting the edge and controlling backside cutback runs.


Baltimore ended the year 10th in total defense, first versus the run, ninth in points allowed and second in sacks but they were tied for just 20th in takeaways and second-last in passing yards given up. However, since their lineup changes in Week 11 they’ve performed much better – they’ve been first in scoring defense, total defense and on third down since then.


The Ravens also had the highest rushing yards differential (plus-1,828) of any team since 2000. They also averaged more yards per play (6.8) than any team since the 2000-01 St. Louis Rams (7.0).

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 12: Greg Rousseau #50 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates with Matt Milano #58 after sacking Bo Nix #10 of the Denver Broncos in the fourth quarter of the AFC wild card playoff game at Highmark Stadium on January 12, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. The Bills beat the Broncos 31-7. (Photo by Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images)


BUFFALO’S DEFENSE USUALLY ELITE, BUT UNDERGOING CHANGES IN 2024

For most of head coach Sean McDermott’s time in Buffalo, the Bills’ defense has been one of the league’s best. Points allowed (fourth in the NFL in that category in 2023), total yards per game allowed (ninth), passing yards given up (seventh), rushing yards surrendered (15th), takeaways (third), interceptions (tied for fourth) and sacks (fourth, tied for second-most in their history with the 2014 team) have generally been the categories that the Bills have excelled at over the years, with last season’s sack total being the best in the McDermott era.


2024, however, has been a year of transition for the Bills on defense. Due to age and salary cap complications, out the door are longtime veterans such as Jordan Poyer and Tyrel Dodson (Miami Dolphins), Tre’Davious White (Baltimore Ravens), Leonard Floyd (San Francisco 49ers, who had 10.5 sacks a year ago – the most of any Bill since Lorenzo Alexander in 2016), Linval Joseph (Dallas Cowboys), Tim Settle (Houston Texans), Kaylon “Poona” Ford (Los Angeles Chargers), Dane Jackson (Carolina Panthers) and Shaq Lawson.


Including names from the past such as Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Star Lotulelei, Carlos “Boogie” Basham, Trent Murphy, Vernon Butler, Justin Zimmer, Efe Obada and Harrison Phillips, that’s a lot of turnover over the last eight years – none more so than this past offseason. The answer, according to McDermott, general manager Brandon Beane and new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich (who has called plays this season for the first time) is youth and cheap veterans to provide cost-effective depth.


Some of those younger players – albeit young veterans since they are in their fourth and fifth professional seasons, respectively – who have been asked to take on a greater role include Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who can line up both on the edge and go inside in passing situations. Da’Quan Jones, perhaps their best run-stuffing lineman, is back healthy after tearing a pectoral muscle against Jacksonville last October and is effective on T-T stunts with Ed Oliver, an excellent gap penetrator.


They are backed up by versatile free agent pickups Austin Johnson (who came from the Chargers after stints with the Tennessee Titans and the New York Giants), Dawuane Smoot (Jacksonville Jaguars) and Casey Toohill (Washington Commanders) along with rookies DeWayne Carter and Javon Solomon. Toohill is a special teamer who reminds some of a more athletic Trent Murphy due to his length, height and movement skills while Solomon has been compared to a younger Elvis Dumervil with his lack of height yet long arms and strength and explosiveness off the edge. Carter and Smoot, while healthy now, were both injured early in the season which led the Bills to bring back two familiar faces in Jordan Phillips and Quinton Jefferson.


Over the years Buffalo has been inconsistent in two areas – creating a consistent pass rush (last year not withstanding) and, from time to time, stopping the run. The run issues are mainly caused by poor tackling (their missed and broken tackle percentage has been among the highest in the NFL over the years), a lack of gap integrity, inefficient communication and an inability to handle motion (which causes issues with leverage, spacing and run fits). They also gave up 4.6 yards a carry on inside runs last year, 30th in the NFL. Another issue was the Bills giving up tying or go-ahead drives in the final two minutes in four of their six losses last year – meaning they struggled to close out games.


Beyond improving against the run, the Bills had also lacked an elite pass rusher off the edge who could command double teams on a consistent basis since Mario Williams was employed 10 years ago. With that in mind, two years ago Beane signed future Hall of Famer Von Miller. But Miller suffered a torn ACL after putting up eight sacks in 11 games and missed the first four games of last season while recovering on the PUP list. He’s healthy now and was on a snap count as he shook off the rust (although by his own admission he shouldn’t have played in 2023) but has provided flashes of his old All-Pro ability and speed – while his sack total isn’t high, he’s created numerous pressures as evidenced by his pass rush win rate.


Schematically the Bills’ defense mostly relies on basic zones after the snap (they’re usually among the top units in the NFL in usage of coverages with two high safeties such as Cover Two, Four and Six, although they used more single-high coverages against the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams so they could put more bodies in the box to stop the run and to limit communication) but before the snap it is complex. Safety rotations to disguise their intentions keep opposing quarterbacks guessing and selective pressure looks at the line of scrimmage and coverage exchanges are the team’s calling cards.


Those blitz looks usually happen in the A-gaps with the smaller, but smart, speedy and athletic Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard (who replaced the departed Tremaine Edmunds last year) to confuse opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks, but Buffalo rarely sends five or more pass rushers – their favorite blitz tactic besides A-gappers are four-man zone exchanges. Bernard has become a good blitzer and coverage ‘backer – his 6.5 sacks in 2023 were the most by an off-the-ball linebacker in Bills annals and he became the first NFL player since Seth Joyner in 1991 with six sacks, three picks and three fumble recoveries in a season. He and Milano are also adept at being used to spy quarterbacks.


For the second straight year, Milano suffered a major injury – this time a torn bicep – but is now back and presumably healthy. When he missed time earlier this year, backup Dorian Williams picked up the slack. The Bills struggled to defend the run well last year because of a lack of experience by Williams – he displayed flashes of quickness and burst but was slow to key and diagnose at the line of scrimmage. He also took many false steps and needed to process better while in coverage, but is athletic, long and fluid, and has improved with more experience game by game. He may have increased playing time this week to stop Baltimore’s running game.


Additional depth comes from Baylon Spector (currently injured) and rookie Joe Andreessen. Andreessen, a University at Buffalo product who hails from nearby Lancaster, showed excellent diagnostic skills at the line of scrimmage in the preseason while also displaying strong hands, a quick downhill trigger that allows him to shoot gaps well and some speed and range. It helps that the rookie played in a similar role as Milano while in college.


The Bills mainly utilize nickel personnel, as evidenced by Buffalo using five defensive backs between 90 and 100 percent of their snaps since 2020. They used more dime personnel after Milano’s injury last year with three safeties to help offset his loss in pass coverage, and that setup featured Micah Hyde and ex-Ram Taylor Rapp on the back end and Poyer near the line of scrimmage.


The Bills’ safety position is now manned by Rapp, who is better playing near the line of scrimmage, the rangy and physical but inconsistent Damar Hamlin, veteran Kareem Jackson – who brings a wealth of experience and can play in the box or on the back end – Hyde and rookie Cole Bishop, who is an underrated and cerebral athlete. Hyde (who recently re-signed with the team after weighing retirement) and Jackson are on the practice squad.


At the boundary cornerback spots replacing White and Jackson are Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas and they are backed up by the tall and physical Ja’Marcus Ingram and Kaiir Elam, who has underwhelmed so far as a pro. Douglas, an ex-Green Bay Packer and Philadelphia Eagle, has great size and length, is versatile and a gambler – he can take chances because he understands route combinations very well (he led the NFL in takeaways last year with six after he was acquired). Slot corner Taron Johnson remains elite – especially in in the quickness and tackling departments – and he’s backed up by tweener Cam Lewis, who can also fill in at safety.


McDermott and Babich have been experimenting with some tactical tweaks in the wake of so many players nursing various bumps and bruises. Against Detroit they used some different fronts, matched personnel instead of rolling out strictly nickel and blitzed and loaded the box far more often. It may be the norm going forward, as they limited Detroit to just 48 yards rushing.


2024 saw the Bills end the regular season 11th in points allowed, 12th against the run, 17th in total yards, tied for 18th in sacks and 24th versus the pass. They were also 29th in third down percentage (they did hold Denver to just 22 percent last week) and gave up the most completions, yards and touchdowns in the NFL on screen plays. However, they were third in takeaways and were fifth-best in allowing plays of 20 yards or more.


Buffalo also held the Broncos to just 42 offensive plays last week – the least ever for a Bills playoff opponent and the least for any playoff team since 2011.

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 12: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills calls a play in the second quarter of the AFC wild card playoff game against the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium on January 12, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. The Bills beat the Broncos 31-7. (Photo by Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images)


BILLS’ UPPER-ECHELON OFFENSE ALSO RETOOLING IN 2024

For five consecutive seasons, the Bills have boasted one of the NFL’s elite offenses for the first time since the K-Gun was running roughshod over the league more than 30 years ago. Led by quarterback Josh Allen’s improved processing skills, ball placement, patience within the pocket and touch on passes and a cadre of gifted pass-catchers, those factors allowed Buffalo to become one of the most feared attacks in pro football (last year Allen was fourth in passing yards and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns while tying for third in rushing scores – leading the league in total yards and touchdowns in the process. This year Allen was ninth in passer rating and rushing touchdowns and tied for seventh in passing scores).


In 2023 the Bills were sixth in scoring, fourth in total yards, seventh in rushing and eighth in passing. They were also fifth in red zone efficiency, yet their offense performed poorly over a six-game stretch where they averaged just 20.5 points per game. It resulted in then-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey getting the boot in favor of quarterbacks coach and former Carolina Panthers play-caller Joe Brady.


Like their defensive counterparts, the Bills are going through changes on this side of the ball because of age, the salary cap and a new coordinator. With Brady taking over the role full-time, the biggest philosophical question on offense for Buffalo will be how to retain elements of what made them so good in the first place while adding in new and fresh concepts.


Between 2018 and last year, Buffalo’s offense was an Erhardt-Perkins system brought in from New England by then-coordinator Brian Daboll. It was built upon concepts involving option and crossing routes from the slot, downfield routes from the outside, run-pass options (especially in the red zone), designed quarterback runs to take advantage of Allen’s mobility and alignments that create favorable matchups and some trick plays with jet/orbit motion and sweeps. It was mostly out of “11” personnel groupings (one back, one tight end and three wide receivers) and “10” personnel (one back, no tight ends, four receivers) – and would also go no-huddle from time to time to limit the opposition’s defensive calls.


The Bills’ multi-receiver sets were traditionally their offensive calling card. In 2020 they used four wide receivers or more 155 times – the second-most in the NFL at the time – and they utilized someone in motion on 43 percent of their offensive snaps, a huge increase from their 25 percent rate in 2019. Daboll, now the head coach of the New York Giants, also called for a passing play on 64 percent of their first downs, according to ESPN Stats and Information (no team with a winning record in the prior 20 years did it more than Buffalo) and that rate continued in 2021 and ’22 with “11” personnel used on nearly three-quarters of their plays.


Daboll’s successor, Ken Dorsey, got away from some of those concepts and tried to rely on the talent at his disposal winning one-on-one matchups instead of having the scheme help them get open. Once Brady was promoted, the Bills returned to them. He also included more under-center formations and play-action (which can still stand to increase after being a top-four team in run-fakes in 2020 and ’21), pre-snap shifts, motions and designed passes to running backs and route combinations with defined reads for Allen so he can play within timing and structure.


Brady got his start in the NFL working for the New Orleans Saints and then-coach Sean Payton. Payton himself came from a melting pot of a background including stints running the Erhardt-Perkins scheme for Bill Parcells in Dallas and learning the West Coast offense from Jim Fassel in New York with the Giants and from Jon Gruden during their one-year stint together in Philadelphia in 1997, so Brady will bring a similar approach to the table while likely keeping some things the same in Buffalo.


Their biggest transaction on offense in the spring was trading the aging Stefon Diggs to Houston. Diggs, while never a burner on the outside, was an exceptional route runner who specialized in making contested catches and operated well out of bunch and stack formations – leading him to re-write many of the Bills’ single season receiving records.


In addition to Diggs, Buffalo has let veterans like Gabriel Davis, John Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty walk over the years. Many of them were productive, but nothing can last forever – hence the overhaul of the Bills’ wide receiver room in 2024.


The Payton offense is built through having big, physical targets who can get open over the middle of the field, especially on deep in-cuts, or “dig” routes. Payton has employed such players in those roles before like Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Michael Thomas and Courtland Sutton, and the drafting of rookie Keon Coleman from Florida State fits the bill for Brady. Coleman, whose game evoked comparisons to Colston, Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin coming out of college, brings size and physicality to the boundary ‘X’ position with good body control and strong hands to make contested catches and has some run after the catch ability. He does need to work on his speed, quickness and ability to beat press coverage, but in time he may improve in those areas.


While not a burner at the position (like free agent pickup Mack Hollins, who has similar skills), Coleman will be accentuated by speed in the form of Curtis Samuel, a poor-man’s Mecole Hardman who can line up both in the slot and outside the numbers and take handoffs. That speed was needed since Buffalo was just 28th in the NFL in plays of 20 yards or more last season according to Trumedia, and shifty third-year pass-catcher Khalil Shakir returns to man the slot with his quickness, sure hands and savviness to get open versus zone coverage.


This group had been struggling to beat man coverage at the beginning of the season, and while Brady used more ‘rub’ concepts and bunch and stack alignments to help in this regard Buffalo was lacking a true replacement for Diggs. Enter five-time Pro Bowler Amari Cooper, who was acquired from the Cleveland Browns in exchange for a third-round draft pick in 2025. Cooper, who is making less than a million dollars this season, fits what the Bills need both financially and on the field – boasting size, speed, excellent route-running and vertical ability and is deadly on in-breaking patterns over the middle.


Tight end Dawson Knox is joined by second-year man Dalton Kincaid, and their diverse skillsets should allow the Bills to throw curveballs at opponents with multiple tight end sets. Kincaid lived up to the hype with 73 receptions a year ago, the most of any Bills rookie and surpassed Pete Metzelaars for the most catches by a Bills tight end in one season. He also became the fourth rookie tight end since 1960 with 70 or more catches in a year.


The Bills’ offensive line is composed of Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern (taking over at center for the departed Mitch Morse), O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown. This crew – which last year became the first unit to start every game in a regular season for Buffalo since 1989 – along with fullback Reggie Gilliam has mainly executed outside zone runs along with zone-reads, pin-and-pull concepts, traps (especially with Dawkins as the puller), counters, sweeps, split inside zone/duo and sprint draw plays sprinkled in for running back James Cook. Cook, who had a breakout season in his first campaign as the starter and boasting great vision and burst, is backed up by physical rookie Ray Davis and ex-Jet Ty Johnson provides valuable depth with his receiving skills.


The starting front five had been iffy in providing push in the running game and in pass protection over the last couple of years but has since become a strength. In the past, most of the team’s rushing production came from Allen’s legs and few came from their backs – the Bills’ rushing attempts per game in 2022, 18.2, was last in the NFL but that number jumped to the highest in the NFL after Brady was promoted. In 2023 Allen was taken down just 24 times overall in 17 regular season outings, the best mark in pro football, and the team again led the league in least sacks allowed with just 14 this year (tied for the sixth-least since 2000).


Buffalo has also carried over their trend of using an extra offensive lineman to help in the running game. Now that Edwards has moved into the starting lineup, that extra guy is Alec Anderson, and the Bills had the highest rate of offensive snaps with six linemen on the field – with most of them being called runs, and were near the top of the NFL in yards per carry and yards per play with six linemen.


Another area the Bills needed to clean up is protecting the ball. Over the last two years they were one the league’s sloppiest teams – Allen had 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles in 2022 and Allen led the NFL with 18 interceptions last year. This year Allen cut down on his interception total significantly with just six – a sign of progress in this regard (Allen became the third signal caller in NFL history to start a season with 10 touchdowns and no picks through his team’s first seven games).


In fact, the Bills tied the league record for fewest turnovers in a season with just eight (with the 2019 Saints). They became the first team ever with less than 15 sacks allowed and fewer than 15 turnovers in the same season. Buffalo ended the 2024 regular season second in points scored, 10th in total yards and ninth in rushing and passing, and became the first team to ever have 30 passing and 30 rushing touchdowns in one season.


While punter Sam Martin and kicker Tyler Bass have been excellent in the past, Bass has been a bit shaky lately. When Martin was named the NFL’s Special Teams Player of the Month in December 2023 – the first Bills punter to do so since Brian Moorman in November 2006 – and Bass collected the same honor earlier in the year, it was the first time both Bills specialists have won the award in one season.


But Bass’ field goal percentage took a dip last year and he hasn’t been great in 2024. To improve he will need to get over whatever is impeding him, but he did hit a franchise-record 61-yard field goal to beat Miami and is eight-for-eight on field goals in the last minute of the fourth quarter or overtime in his career.


McDermott and Brady cost themselves a win against the Texans while trying to throw three successive times within their own three-yard line with less than a minute to go and no timeouts. With Houston having all three of their timeouts, three straight runs would have forced Houston to burn them to get the ball back – meaning they wouldn’t have had one to use to stop the clock to set up a game-winning field goal, which happened. According to ESPN, the Bills became the only team in the last 45 years to be tied or winning in the last minute of the game, inside their own five-yard line and threw three straight passes.


They also botched three situations against the Rams – declining a penalty midway through the game that likely would have forced L.A. to punt, calling a running play when trying to tie the game late (and wasting a timeout in the process) and having just nine men on the field on the final play when trying to return a punt. They’ll need to learn from these miscues going forward.

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 12: James Cook #4 of the Buffalo Bills scores a touchdown in the second quarter of the AFC wild card playoff game against the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium on January 12, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. The Bills beat the Broncos 31-7. (Photo by Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images)


12 STATS TO MUSE OVER

·         The Bills have compiled a road winning percentage of .653 (32-17) since 2019. Conversely, since 2020 Buffalo has the best home record in the NFL – 41-9 including playoffs – and the Bills also have 12 straight home wins, the second-longest streak in team annals behind a 15-game stretch between 1990-91. They went undefeated at home this year for the first time since ’90.

·         Allen surpassed Jim Kelly for the most passing touchdowns in team playoff history.

·         According to Trumedia, the Bills faced man coverage on 32.7 percent of their snaps last year – the most in the NFL. However, heavy usage of man coverage isn’t foreign to the Bills’ offense. It’s been a staple against them over the last five years (48 percent in 2019, first, 35 in ’20, fifth, 33.3 in ’21, fourth and 29.3 in ’22, fifth), and it’s been no different in 2024 as they have gone against man coverage on one of the highest figures in the NFL.

·         Buffalo also faced eight-man boxes 32 percent of the time, the most in the NFL according to Cover 1’s Erik Turner. It’s a stark contrast to the last four years in which they went against them 16 percent of the time in 2020 (32nd), 18.6 in ’21 (27th), 20.4 in ’22 (20th) and 19.9 in ’23 (19th).

·         Miller is vying to be the second player to win a Super Bowl with three different teams (Matt Millen was the first).

·         The Bills have scored 30 points or more 13 total times in 2024 including playoffs and have become the highest scoring team in franchise history. They’ve won seven games by 20-plus points (a franchise record) and their 24-point win last week was the third-largest margin of victory in team annals. Additionally they had the ninth-highest time of possession in a playoff game in NFL history.

·         Buffalo tied the franchise record for wins in a season with 13 and are 16-5 all-time at home in postseason play. They also have the most wins in a seven-year span without reaching the Super Bowl with 83 – Baltimore is second with 81.

·         No team has ever been eliminated in the divisional round four years in a row. The only teams to get knocked out four straight seasons in any round are the Marvin Lewis-era Bengals and the Bills’ Super Bowl teams.

·         According to CBS Sports the Bills are the first team since 1960 to not lose the turnover battle through their first 18 games, including playoffs.

·         Buffalo has outscored their opponents 3-4-164 in the second half this year, including playoffs. Their second half point differential and second half points per game are both first in the league.

·         This week will be the first playoff matchup ever between quarterbacks who each had 40 or more total touchdowns and less than 10 turnovers. It’s also the seventh matchup ever between teams who each had the same point differential (plus-157) in the regular season, and the first since Super Bowl LII, according to ESPN Research.

·         The temperature at kickoff is projected to be 20 degrees. Since 2017 the Bills have a 14-2 record in games with temperatures below 32 degrees.

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