TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF BILLS-SAINTS
- Tony Fiorello
- Sep 28
- 18 min read
by Tony Fiorello
Welcome to Week Four of the 2025 NFL season. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the Buffalo Bills’ upcoming opponent and what each team might do to emerge victorious.
The Bills’ fourth game of 2025 will take place at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York as they face the New Orleans Saints. Here’s what you should know:
NEW ORLEANS STARTING OVER OFFENSIVELY
After a decade and a half of dominant play on this side of the ball courtesy of Drew Brees, Sean Payton and company, New Orleans has struggled offensively over the last few years. Thanks to a loss of talent both on and off the field (and their replacements not being up to par), the Saints will look to new head coach Kellen Moore to turn things around.
Moore comes to the Big Easy from the Philadelphia Eagles, where he helped lead them to a Super Bowl win a year ago. His system, which he perfected with Eagles coach Nick Sirianni, is a West Coast-style unit that’s built off misdirection concepts, quick underneath throws (especially on slant-flat concepts), screens, bootlegs, run-pass options and downfield route combinations borrowed from the Coryell system. Moore also uses quite a bit of “empty” and three-by-one sets to spread the field and make easier reads in the passing game for his quarterbacks, and he does a good job of using tight splits and motion for his wide receivers to get defenders to commit to soft coverage. He then has his wideouts defeat them with double moves, and he’ll also go no-huddle from time to time.
Pulling the trigger for this attack is second-year quarterback Spencer Rattler. Rattler boasts some athleticism with a good arm and is an aggressive decision-maker who is also solid in the timing and rhythm portion of the passing game. His wide receivers – who have dropped numerous passes recently – are Chris Olave (who, when healthy, is one of the NFL’s better pass-catchers) and speedy veterans Brandin Cooks and Rashid Shaheed. Juwan Johnson is their starting tight end.
New Orleans isn’t averse to running the ball either. The Saints have traditionally loved using Alvin Kamara on inside runs, misdirection plays, screens and draws, and lining him up at wide receiver – both out wide and in the slot. His speed, route-running ability and reliable hands make him a threat no matter where he aligns, and backup quarterback/tight end Taysom Hill is reminiscent of Kordell Stewart – athletic enough to make a play at any position.
The Saints’ offensive line is made up of former first round draft picks Kelvin Banks, Trevor Penning, Cesar Ruiz and Taliese Fuaga and Erik McCoy at center. They are one of the most talented units in football but have had bouts of inconsistency in pass protection.
Through three weeks New Orleans’ offensive production hasn’t been where they want it to be. 29th in scoring, 19th in total yards and 18th in rushing and passing, the Saints have certainly been mediocre.
SAINTS’ DEFENSE HAS A NEW SCHEME
With the installation of a new head coach also comes a changing of the guard in schemes, and the Saint’s defense is no different. Dennis Allen, who ran New Orleans’ defense for the last 10 years, is gone and now Brandon Staley oversees this side of the ball.
Staley, a former head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers and assistant to the well-traveled Vic Fangio, doesn’t like to blitz much. Relying on a four-man pass rush with stunts, twists and slants and two-deep safety looks often, he employs well-disguised hybrid coverages that feature man and zone concepts – especially Cover Four, or “quarters”, with each defensive back dividing the field into fourths and matchup principles to take away vertical concepts.
This approach has been gaining in popularity in recent years throughout the NFL. According to Smart Football’s Chris B. Brown, “It’s the most important defensive scheme of the past decade…. At first glance, Cover 4 looks like an anti-pass prevent tactic, with four secondary defenders playing deep. But therein lies its magic. The four defenders are actually playing a matchup zone concept, in which the safety reads the tight end or inside receiver. If an offensive player lined up inside releases on a short pass route or doesn’t release into the route, the safety can help double-team the outside receiver. If the inside receiver breaks straight downfield, it becomes more like man coverage. This variance keeps quarterbacks guessing and prevents defenses from being exploited by common pass plays like four verticals, which killed eight-man fronts.
“The real key to Cover 4, however, is that against the run both safeties become rush defenders (remember, the outside cornerbacks play deep). This allows defenses to play nine men in the box against the run – a hat-tip to the 46’s overwhelming force.”
Savvy veteran Cameron Jordan is the leader of the Saints’ defensive line and he, Chase Young and Carl Granderson are the team’s top pass rushers. Bryan Bresee is an emerging talent at defensive tackle and Davon Godchaux – a versatile and excellent run-stuffer – is his tag-team partner. Linebackers Demario Davis and Pete Werner are tackling machines and can defend sideline-to-sideline.
New Orleans has an aggressive secondary. Led by safety Justin Reid (who matches up well with tight ends), the Saints also have Jonas Sanker, Issac Yiadom, Kool-Aid McKinstry and Alontae Taylor patrolling this unit. Taylor is a good blitzer, especially when he’s moved to the slot in nickel packages.
Like their offensive counterparts, New Orleans has been in the middle of the pack on defense. They’re just 25th in points allowed, 15th in total yards given up, 17th against the pass and 14th versus the run.
BUFFALO’S DEFENSE USUALLY GOOD, BUT UNDERGOING A MAKEOVER IN 2024 AND ‘25
For most of head coach Sean McDermott’s time in Buffalo, the Bills’ defense was been one of the league’s best. Points allowed (fourth in the NFL in that category in 2023), total yards per game allowed (ninth), passing yards given up (seventh), rushing yards surrendered (15th), takeaways (third), interceptions (tied for fourth) and sacks (fourth, tied for second-most in their history with the 2014 team) have generally been the categories that the Bills have excelled at over the years, with 2023’s sack total being the best of the McDermott era.
2024, however, was a year of transition for the Bills on defense. Due to age and salary cap complications, out the door were longtime veterans such as Jordan Poyer and Tyrel Dodson (Miami Dolphins), Tre’Davious White (Baltimore Ravens), Leonard Floyd (San Francisco 49ers, who had 10.5 sacks a year ago – the most of any Bill since Lorenzo Alexander in 2016), Linval Joseph (Dallas Cowboys), Tim Settle (Houston Texans), Kaylon “Poona” Ford (Los Angeles Chargers), Dane Jackson (Carolina Panthers) and Shaq Lawson.
Especially when one includes names from the past on the defensive line such as Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Star Lotulelei, Quinton Jefferson, Carlos “Boogie” Basham, Trent Murphy, Vernon Butler, Justin Zimmer, Efe Obada, Harrison Phillips, Dawuane Smoot, Austin Johnson and Casey Toohill, that’s a lot of turnover during the last eight years. The answer, according to McDermott, general manager Brandon Beane and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich, is youth and cheap veterans to provide cost-effective depth (Buffalo made it to the AFC title game with the third-most dead money on the salary cap in the NFL and used just 71 percent of the cap).
Some of those younger players – albeit young veterans since they are in their fifth and sixth professional seasons, respectively – who have been asked to take on a greater role include Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who can line up both on the edge and go inside in passing situations. Da’Quan Jones, perhaps their best run-stuffing lineman, is effective on T-T stunts with Ed Oliver (out for Sunday’s game), an excellent gap penetrator.
They are backed up by a familiar face in Jordan Phillips (who is on the practice squad) and second-year men Javon Solomon and DeWayne Carter (Carter is out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon) while rookies Deone Walker, T.J. Sanders and Landon Jackson learn the ropes of the NFL. Ex-Charger Joey Bosa, a five-time Pro Bowler and 10-year pro, will likely get between 10-15 snaps a game in obvious pass rush situations and fill the role that future Hall of Famer Von Miller eventually settled into after a torn ACL 11 games into his first season compromised his play on the field. Additionally, veterans Larry Ogunjobi and Michael Hoecht will provide valuable depth after they return from six-game suspensions (Hoecht is an intelligent and versatile athlete who McDermott and Babich can deploy in multiple ways).
Over the years Buffalo has been inconsistent in two areas – creating a consistent pass rush and, from time to time, stopping the run. The run issues are mainly caused by poor tackling (their missed and broken tackle percentage has been among the highest in the NFL over the years), a lack of gap integrity, inefficient communication and an inability to handle motion (which causes issues with leverage, spacing and run fits). Perhaps the infusion of new faces this season can put those issues to bed once and for all, but in Week One they reared their ugly heads again in the form of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson rushing for 239 yards on 24 carries – an average of nearly 10 yards per attempt – allowing the Bills to surrender 40 points in a game for the first time since 2021. They also gave up 130 yards to Miami in Week Three.
Schematically the Bills’ defense mostly relies on basic zones after the snap (they’re usually among the top units in the NFL in usage of coverages with two high safeties such as Cover Two, Four and Six, although they used more single-high man coverages against the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens last year so they could put more bodies in the box to stop the run and to limit communication) but before the snap it is complex. Safety rotations to disguise their intentions keep opposing quarterbacks guessing and selective pressure looks at the line of scrimmage and coverage exchanges are the team’s calling cards.
Those blitz looks usually happen in the A-gaps with the smaller, but smart, speedy and athletic Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard to confuse opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks, but Buffalo rarely sends five or more pass rushers – their favorite blitz tactic besides A-gappers are four-man zone exchanges. In 2024’s regular season they were 27th in blitz rate but Buffalo blitzed Lamar Jackson on 15 out of 31 dropbacks (48.4%) in the playoffs, their fifth-highest blitz rate in a game under McDermott and their highest in a game since Week 15 of 2021, according to Next Gen Stats.
Bernard has become a good blitzer and coverage ‘backer – his 6.5 sacks in 2023 were the most by an off-the-ball linebacker in Bills annals and he became the first NFL player since Seth Joyner in 1991 with six sacks, three picks and three fumble recoveries in a season. He and Milano are also adept at being used to spy quarterbacks – they spied Jackson on every third down in last year’s postseason.
For the second straight year, Milano suffered a major injury – this time a torn bicep – but is now back and presumably healthy (although he’ll miss Sunday’s game with a pec ailment). When he missed time last season, backup Dorian Williams picked up the slack. The Bills struggled to defend the run at times because of a lack of experience by Williams – he displayed flashes of quickness and burst but was slow to key and diagnose at the line of scrimmage. He also took many false steps and needed to process better while in coverage, but is athletic, long and fluid, and has improved with more experience game by game. He had increased playing time in the playoffs to stop Baltimore’s running game, as evidenced by being on the field for a third of Buffalo’s snaps.
Additional depth comes from former Carolina Panther Shaq Thompson and Joe Andreessen. Andreessen, a University at Buffalo product who hails from nearby Lancaster, showed excellent diagnostic skills at the line of scrimmage in the preseason while also displaying strong hands, a quick downhill trigger that allows him to shoot gaps well and some speed and range. It helps that he played in a similar role as Milano while in college.
The Bills mainly utilize nickel personnel, as evidenced by Buffalo using five defensive backs between 90 and 100 percent of their snaps since 2020 (although their percentage of base personnel has gone up so far this year). When Milano is out with injury, they’ve increased their usage of dime personnel with three safeties to help offset his loss in pass coverage and in the past, that setup featured Poyer near the line of scrimmage, Micah Hyde and ex-Ram Taylor Rapp on the back end.
The Bills’ safety position is now manned by Rapp, who is better playing near the line of scrimmage, the rangy and physical but inconsistent Damar Hamlin and Cole Bishop, who is an underrated and cerebral athlete. Poyer (who recently re-signed with the team following a one-year stint in Miami) is on the practice squad providing veteran depth.
At the boundary cornerback spots are White (also back after a year away to replace Rasul Douglas) and Christian Benford and they are backed up by the tall and physical Ja’Marcus Ingram, Dane Jackson (another experienced face back on the practice squad) and speedy rookies Max Hairston, Dorian Strong and Jordan Hancock. Hairston is currently out with a sprained knee and will miss the first four games. Slot corner Taron Johnson remains elite – especially in in the quickness and tackling departments – and he’s backed up by tweener Cam Lewis, who can also fill in at safety.
2024 saw the Bills end the regular season 11th in points allowed, 12th against the run, 17th in total yards, tied for 18th in sacks and 24th versus the pass. They were also 29th in third down percentage, gave up the most completions, yards and touchdowns in the NFL on screen plays and allowed nine touchdowns on plays of four seconds or longer – the most in the league according to Cover 1’s Eric Turner. However, they were third in takeaways and were fifth-best in allowing plays of 20 yards or more.
Yet their start to the 2025 season has been quite uneven. Although they’re ninth in total yards allowed and second versus the pass, they’re just 20th in points given up and dead-last versus the run. Needless to say, Buffalo has their work cut out for them on this side of the ball.
BILLS’ UPPER-ECHELON OFFENSE STILL PRODUCTIVE
For five consecutive seasons, the Bills boasted one of the NFL’s elite offenses for the first time since the K-Gun was running roughshod over the league more than 30 years ago. Led by quarterback Josh Allen’s improved processing skills both pre and post-snap, ball placement, patience within the pocket and touch on passes and a cadre of gifted pass-catchers, those factors allowed Buffalo to become one of the most feared attacks in pro football (last year Allen was ninth in passer rating and rushing touchdowns and tied for seventh in passing scores).
In 2023 the Bills were sixth in scoring, fourth in total yards, seventh in rushing and eighth in passing. They were also fifth in red zone efficiency, yet their offense performed poorly over a six-game stretch where they averaged just 20.5 points per game. It resulted in then-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey getting the boot in favor of quarterbacks coach and former Carolina Panthers play-caller Joe Brady.
Like their defensive counterparts, the Bills went through changes on this side of the ball because of age, the salary cap and a new coordinator. With Brady taking over the role full-time, the biggest philosophical question on offense for Buffalo was how to retain elements of what made them so good in the first place while adding new and fresh concepts.
Between 2018 and ‘23, Buffalo’s offense was an Erhardt-Perkins system brought in from New England by then-coordinator Brian Daboll. It was built upon concepts involving option and crossing routes from the slot, downfield routes from the outside, run-pass options (especially in the red zone), designed quarterback runs to take advantage of Allen’s mobility and alignments that created favorable matchups and some trick plays with jet/orbit motion and sweeps. It was mostly out of “11” personnel groupings (one back, one tight end and three wide receivers) and “10” personnel (one back, no tight ends, four receivers) – and they would also go no-huddle from time to time to limit the opposition’s defensive calls.
The Bills’ multi-receiver sets were traditionally their offensive calling card. In 2020 they used four wide receivers or more 155 times – the second-most in the NFL at the time – and they utilized someone in motion on 43 percent of their offensive snaps, a huge increase from their 25 percent rate in 2019. Daboll, now the head coach of the New York Giants, also called for a passing play on 64 percent of their first downs, according to ESPN Stats and Information (no team with a winning record in the prior 20 years did it more than Buffalo) and that rate continued in 2021 and ’22 with “11” personnel used on nearly three-quarters of their plays.
Daboll’s successor, Ken Dorsey, got away from some of those concepts and tried to rely on the talent at his disposal winning one-on-one matchups instead of having the scheme get them open. Once Brady was promoted, the Bills returned to them. He also included more under-center formations and play-action (which can still stand to increase after being a top-four team in run-fakes in 2020 and ’21 – they’re just 24th through three weeks), pre-snap shifts, motions and designed passes to running backs and route combinations with defined reads for Allen so he can play within timing and structure.
Brady got his start in the NFL working for the New Orleans Saints and then-coach Sean Payton. Payton himself came from a melting pot of a background including stints running the Erhardt-Perkins scheme for Bill Parcells in Dallas and learning the West Coast offense from Jim Fassel with the New York Giants and from Jon Gruden during their one-year stint together in Philadelphia in 1997, so Brady will bring a similar approach to the table while likely keeping some things the same in Buffalo.
Their biggest transaction on offense last year was trading the aging Stefon Diggs to Houston. Diggs (now in New England), while never a burner on the outside, was an exceptional route runner who specialized in making contested catches and operated well out of bunch and stack formations – leading him to re-write many of the Bills’ single season receiving records.
In addition to Diggs, Buffalo has let veterans like John Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty and Amari Cooper walk over the years. Many of them were productive, but nothing can last forever – hence the overhaul of the Bills’ wide receiver room.
The Payton offense is built through having big, physical targets who can get open over the middle of the field, especially on deep in-cuts, or “dig” routes. Payton has employed such players in those roles before like Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Michael Thomas and Courtland Sutton, and the drafting of Keon Coleman from Florida State last year fits the bill for Brady. Coleman, whose game evoked comparisons to Colston, Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin coming out of college, brings size and physicality to the boundary ‘X’ position with good body control and strong hands to make contested catches and has some run after the catch ability. He does need to work on his speed, quickness and ability to beat press coverage, but in time he may improve in those areas.
While not a burner at the position Coleman is accentuated by speed in the form of Curtis Samuel, a poor-man’s Mecole Hardman who can line up both in the slot and outside the numbers and take handoffs and free agent pickups Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore. Shifty pass-catcher Khalil Shakir mans the slot with his quickness, sure hands and savviness to get open versus zone coverage, Gabriel Davis has returned to the practice squad to supply depth and Tyrell Shavers could prove to be a new weapon after making the team’s active roster out of training camp.
Tight end Dawson Knox is joined by third-year man Dalton Kincaid and their diverse skillsets have allowed the Bills to throw curveballs at opponents with multiple tight end sets. Kincaid lived up to the hype with 73 receptions as a rookie, the most of any first-year Bill and surpassed Pete Metzelaars for the most catches by a Bills tight end in one season. He also became the fourth rookie tight end since 1960 with 70 or more catches in a year.
The Bills’ offensive line is composed of Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern (taking over at center for the departed Mitch Morse), O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown (out for Sunday). This crew, along with fullback Reggie Gilliam has mainly executed outside zone runs along with zone-reads, pin-and-pull concepts, traps (especially with Dawkins as the puller), counters, sweeps, split inside zone/duo and sprint draw plays sprinkled in for running back James Cook. Cook, who boasts great vision and burst, is backed up by physical second-year man Ray Davis and ex-Jet Ty Johnson brings solid receiving skills to the table.
The starting front five used to be iffy in providing push in the running game and in pass protection but has become a strength in recent years. In the past, most of the team’s rushing production came from Allen’s legs and few came from their backs – the Bills’ rushing attempts per game in 2022, 18.2, was last in the NFL but that number jumped to the highest in the NFL after Brady was promoted. In 2023 Allen was taken down just 24 times overall in 17 regular season outings, the best mark in pro football, and the team again led the league with just 14 sacks allowed last year (tied for the sixth-least since 2000).
Buffalo also carried over their trend of using an extra offensive lineman to help in the running game. Now that Edwards has moved into the starting lineup, the sixth guy is currently Alec Anderson and the Bills had the highest rate of offensive snaps with six linemen on the field – with most of them being called runs, and were near the top of the NFL in yards per carry and yards per play with six linemen on the field (rookie tight end Jackson Hawes, an excellent blocker and the replacement for Quintin Morris, is being used more in this regard with “13” personnel looks).
Another area the Bills needed to clean up was protecting the ball. They used to be one the league’s sloppiest teams – Allen had 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles in 2022 and he led the NFL with 18 interceptions in ’23. Last year Allen cut down on his interception total significantly with just six – a sign of progress in this regard (Allen became the third signal caller in NFL history to start a season with 10 touchdowns and no picks through his team’s first seven games).
In fact, the Bills tied the league record for fewest turnovers in a season with just eight (with the 2019 Saints). They also became the first team ever with less than 15 sacks allowed and fewer than 15 turnovers in the same season. Buffalo ended the 2024 regular season second in points scored (the highest scoring team in franchise history) and red zone efficiency, 10th in total yards and ninth in rushing and passing and became the first team to ever have 30 passing and 30 rushing touchdowns in one season. They, along with the Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders, were also the top four teams in the NFL on fourth down conversion rate – so far they’re first in the NFL in time of possession, total yards and rushing, fourth in scoring and fifth in passing.
Cameron Johnston is the team’s new punter and kicker Tyler Bass is out for the team’s first four games due to a groin injury – meaning 41-year-old former All-Pro Matt Prater will replace him. Prater, who holds the NFL record for most 50-plus yards field goals in a career, is also 24 for 25 in the last two minutes of regulation or in overtime.
12 STATS TO MUSE OVER
· Last year Buffalo tied the franchise record for wins in a season with 13 and are 17-5 all-time at home in postseason play. They won seven games by 20-plus points (a franchise record) and they went undefeated at home last year for the first time since ’90.
· Buffalo faced eight-man boxes 32 percent of the time in 2024, the most in the NFL according to Cover 1’s Erik Turner. It’s a stark contrast to the prior four years in which they went against them 16 percent of the time in 2020 (32nd), 18.6 in ’21 (27th), 20.4 in ’22 (20th) and 19.9 in ’23 (19th).
· Buffalo hasn’t lost the turnover battle in their last 25 games – an NFL record. They also are tied for first in turnovers and first in penalties (on the flip side, New Orleans in the most penalized team in football) and have scored 30 points or more in 12 of their last 14 games.
· Allen had 40 combined scores for the fifth straight year in 2024 – no other quarterback has done it more than three times (Drew Brees from 2011-13) – allowing him to be named the NFL’s Most Valuable Player by the Associated Press, an honor previously bestowed upon just two other Bills (Thurman Thomas in 1991 and O.J. Simpson in ‘73).
· Buffalo’s quarterback is also a threat to become the first signal caller to ever rush for six scores or more in each of his first eight years in the NFL. The only other players to do so are Hall of Fame running backs Jim Brown, Marshall Faulk and LaDanian Tomlinson.
· Cook has a rushing score in each of his last seven games, tying the longest streak in franchise history with Robb Riddick (1988), Simpson (’75) and Cookie Gilchrist (’62).
· Allen can tie the league record (currently held by Cam Newton with 44) for most career games with a passing and rushing touchdown.
· The Bills can tie the franchise record for most consecutive home wins (15 from 1990-91) should they beat the Saints.
· Speaking of beating New Orleans, Buffalo hasn’t done so at home since 1983 – they’ve lost their last four contests to them in Orchard Park.
· Through three games this year the Bills are 3-0 with 100-plus points scored, no turnovers, less than 15 penalties, 150-plus rushing yards per game and 250-plus passing yards per game. No one has ever done that in the same timespan in league history, according to Opta Stats.
· Buffalo has forced a turnover in 14 straight home games – their longest streak since a 31-game outing from 1988-92.
· McDermott can improve to a 22-7 record against first year head coaches (regular season and playoffs) should he beat the Saints.
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