TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF BILLS-TEXANS
- Tony Fiorello
- 2 days ago
- 19 min read
by Tony Fiorello
Welcome to Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the Buffalo Bills’ upcoming opponent and what each team might do to emerge victorious.
The Bills’ 11th game of 2025 will take place at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas as they face the Houston Texans. Here’s what you should know:
TEXANS’ OFFENSE FLAWED BUT TALENTED
Over the last two years general manager Nick Caserio and head coach DeMeco Ryans (a former San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator and ex-Texans linebacker) have led the Texans to a pair of AFC South division titles and are trying to follow it up with another in 2025.
Ryans and new offensive coordinator Nick Caley have brought a system to Houston that worked for Ryans by the Bay, and what also was used by the team years ago under Gary Kubiak – the Shanahan-style of the West Coast offense. Caley uses a playbook that emphasizes a running game built around zone-blocking (especially to the outside on “stretch” plays) and passes that are created off the threat of run-action. The system can create a lot of big plays down the field from craftily designed routes that work off one another, and the skill position players often line up in reduced splits to the line of scrimmage to become both extra blockers on runs and to have more room to run routes on the field.
No position has seen as much change in Houston than quarterback. Once led by one of the NFL’s best signal callers in Deshaun Watson, Watson was traded to the Cleveland Browns in 2022 following several legal problems and his successor has proven to be C.J. Stroud. The former first-round pick from Ohio State has shown a good sense of timing, accuracy and patience in the pocket with solid mechanics and is a quick processor of coverages. He’s also athletic enough to make second-reaction plays but sometimes struggles against blitzes. Yet he won’t play against the Bills due to injury, leading to backup Davis Mills III getting the nod under center.
Mills does have some upside to his game. A poised pocket quarterback with a solid arm whose game is based off rhythm and timing, he has displayed some good vision when given the chance to play.
The Texans have former Cincinnati Bengal Joe Mixon, ex-Cleveland Brown Nick Chubb and rookie Woody Marks at running back. Mixon is one of pro football’s better running backs when healthy, and his solid vision and good cutback ability mesh well with Houston’s scheme (and he’s also effective running out of multi-tight end formations with ‘wham’ block concepts), however he’s missed the entire season due to injury. Chubb has never fully recovered from a horrific knee injury he suffered two years ago and isn’t the same player he used to be, but has been a mentor to Marks, a fourth-round pick out of USC who has some quickness and explosiveness to his game.
Executing blocks on the offensive line are former first-round pick Tytus Howard, Ed Ingram, Jake Andrews, Laken Tomlinson and Aireontae Ersery. This unit, however, has struggled in pass protection – especially in picking up blitzes, defending stunts and displaying poor communication.
Houston’s targets in the passing game are Nico Collins, who is one of the league’s premier boundary ‘X’ receivers, the injured Tank Dell, veteran Christian Kirk (whose speed and refined route running ability helps him make contributions out of the slot) and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Higgins has played well while showing off his size, route-running and contested catch skills and Noel operates best over the middle from the slot with speed and quickness. Houston’s tight end is ex-Dallas Cowboy Dalton Schultz, who excels on out-breaking routes.
Houston was 12th in total offense, seventh in passing, 23rd in rushing and 14th in points in 2023. In 2024 those numbers declined – 21st in total offense and passing yards, 15th in rushing and 19th in points scored are nowhere near where Ryans and company would like to be. They were also tied with Seattle for third-last in sacks allowed.
So far in 2025 the Texans have been more like they were a year ago. 21st in scoring, 19th in total yards, 23rd in rushing and 16th in passing, they don’t use motion much while also employing lots of “11” personnel (one back, one tight end, three wide receivers) and have leaned too much on 50-50 jump balls in the red zone.
HOUSTON’S DEFENSE VERY GOOD
Ryans’ preference for the Cover Three scheme that he coached in San Francisco (with deep zone coverage from the outside cornerbacks, one safety patrolling centerfield and another near the line of scrimmage) has taken over in H-Town. While that is their basic philosophy coverage-wise, the Texans also like to rush five and play quarters (Cover Four) or Cover Six (a hybrid of Cover Four and Two) on third down.
Ryans and defensive coordinator Matt Burke’s pass rush is spearheaded by one of the league’s best edge duos in Will Anderson Jr. (who converts speed to power quite nicely) and former All-Pro Danielle Hunter. They are joined in the starting front four by Sheldon Rankins and ex-Bill Tim Settle, and Mario Edwards, Derek Barnett and Denico Autry are key rotational pieces for the Texans.
At linebacker Houston employs a pair of fast and aggressive but undersized second-level defenders in Azeez Al-Shaair and Henry To’oTo’o (the latter has been losing playing time lately to E.J. Speed, who is a better athlete). On the back end, Derek Stingley Jr. is showing why he was a high first round draft pick in 2022 while Kamari Lassiter is the other starter at cornerback. Jalen Pitre, out for Thursday, is their normal nickel and ex-New England Patriot Myles Bryant provides depth.
Calen Bullock is a good post safety who can also drop down into the box to play the run and he’s joined by veteran Jalen Mills and rookie Jaylen Reed (Jimmie Ward is normally one of Houston’s normal starting safeties, but has been on the shelf because of injury). This group has shown to be overly aggressive on the back end.
The Texans ended 2023 14th in total yards, 23rd against the pass, sixth versus the run and 11th in points allowed. They were also 15th in sacks and tied for 16th in takeaways. In 2024 Houston was 14th in points allowed, 11th versus the run, sixth against the pass and fifth in total yards. They were tied for fourth in sacks with Minnesota and were fifth in takeaways.
This season their defense has gone to another level. The Texans are first in points and total yards allowed while third against both the pass and run, and they’re tied for fifth in takeaways with Tampa Bay. But they have a crucial weakness – they’re 28th in red zone defense, and teams who use condensed splits with their wide receivers can hurt them.
BUFFALO’S DEFENSE USUALLY GOOD, BUT HAS HAD A ROUGH 2024 AND ‘25
For most of head coach Sean McDermott’s time in Buffalo, the Bills’ defense was one of the league’s best. Points allowed (fourth in the NFL in that category in 2023), total yards per game allowed (ninth), passing yards given up (seventh), rushing yards surrendered (15th), takeaways (third), interceptions (tied for fourth) and sacks (fourth, tied for second-most in their history with the 2014 team) have generally been the categories that the Bills have excelled at over the years, with 2023’s sack total being the best of the McDermott era.
2024, however, was a year of transition for the Bills on defense. Due to age and salary cap complications, out the door were longtime veterans such as Jordan Poyer and Tyrel Dodson (Miami Dolphins), Tre’Davious White (Baltimore Ravens), Leonard Floyd (San Francisco 49ers, who had 10.5 sacks a year ago – the most of any Bill since Lorenzo Alexander in 2016), Linval Joseph (Dallas Cowboys), Tim Settle (Houston Texans), Kaylon “Poona” Ford (Los Angeles Chargers), Dane Jackson (Carolina Panthers) and Shaq Lawson.
Especially when one includes names from the past on the defensive line such as Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Star Lotulelei, Quinton Jefferson, Carlos “Boogie” Basham, Trent Murphy, Vernon Butler, Justin Zimmer, Efe Obada, Harrison Phillips, Dawuane Smoot, Austin Johnson and Casey Toohill – that’s a lot of turnover during the last eight years. The answer, according to McDermott, general manager Brandon Beane and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich, is youth and cheap veterans to provide cost-effective depth (Buffalo made it to the AFC title game last year with the third-most dead money on the salary cap in the NFL and used just 71 percent of the cap).
Some of those younger players – albeit young veterans since they are in their fifth and sixth professional seasons, respectively – who have been asked to take on a greater role include Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who can both line up on the edge and go inside in passing situations. Da’Quan Jones, perhaps their best run-stuffing lineman, is effective on T-T stunts with Ed Oliver (out for the rest of the regular season), an excellent gap penetrator.
They are backed up by a familiar face in Jordan Phillips and second-year men Javon Solomon and DeWayne Carter (Carter is out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon) while rookies Deone Walker, T.J. Sanders and Landon Jackson (currently injured) learn the ropes of the NFL. Ex-Charger Joey Bosa, a five-time Pro Bowler and 10-year pro, will fill the role that future Hall of Famer Von Miller settled into after a torn ACL 11 games into his first season compromised his play on the field. Additionally, veterans Morgan Fox, Larry Ogunjobi and Michael Hoecht provide valuable depth (Hoecht, out for the season after tearing his Achilles tendon, is an intelligent and versatile chess piece who can be deployed in multiple ways).
Over the years Buffalo has been inconsistent in two areas – creating a consistent pass rush and stopping the run. The run issues are mainly caused by poor tackling (their missed and broken tackle percentage has been among the highest in the NFL for years), a lack of gap integrity and ability to get off blocks, subpar eye discipline, inefficient communication and an inability to handle motion and misdirection (which causes issues with leverage, spacing and run fits). Perhaps the infusion of new faces this season can eventually put those issues to bed once and for all, but they’ve reared their ugly heads yet again in 2025.
Schematically the Bills’ defense mostly relies on basic zones after the snap (they’re typically among the top units in the NFL in usage of coverages with two high safeties such as Cover Two, Four and Six, although they’ve used more single-high man coverages recently so they could put more bodies in the box to stop the run and to limit communication) but before the snap it is complex. Safety rotations to disguise their intentions keep opposing quarterbacks guessing and selective pressure looks at the line of scrimmage and coverage exchanges are the team’s calling cards.
Those blitz looks usually happen in the A-gaps with the smaller, but smart, speedy and athletic Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard to confuse opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks, but Buffalo rarely sends five or more pass rushers – their favorite blitz tactic besides A-gappers are four-man zone exchanges. In 2024’s regular season they were 27th in blitz rate but Buffalo blitzed Lamar Jackson on 15 out of 31 drop-backs (48.4%) in the playoffs, their fifth-highest blitz rate in a game under McDermott and their highest in a game since Week 15 of 2021, according to Next Gen Stats.
Bernard has become a good blitzer and coverage ‘backer – his 6.5 sacks in 2023 were the most by an off-the-ball linebacker in Bills annals and he became the first NFL player since Seth Joyner in 1991 with six sacks, three picks and three fumble recoveries in a season. He and Milano are also adept at being used to spy quarterbacks – they spied Jackson on every third down in last year’s postseason – but Bernard, like most of the Bills, has dealt with injuries and hasn’t quite looked like himself.
For the third straight year, Milano suffered another major injury – this time a pectoral problem (although he’s healthy enough to play as of now). When he misses time, backup Dorian Williams usually picks up the slack. Williams displays flashes of quickness and burst but is sometimes slow to key and diagnose at the line of scrimmage. He also takes many false steps and needs to process better while in coverage, but is athletic, long and fluid and has improved with more experience game by game. He had increased playing time in the playoffs to stop Baltimore’s running game, as evidenced by being on the field for a third of Buffalo’s snaps.
Additional depth comes from former Carolina Panther Shaq Thompson and Joe Andreessen. Andreessen, a University at Buffalo product who hails from nearby Lancaster, showed excellent diagnostic skills at the line of scrimmage in the preseason while also displaying strong hands, a quick downhill trigger that allows him to shoot gaps well and some speed and range. It helps that he played in a similar role as Milano while in college. Thompson, meanwhile, has turned back the clock with some strong performances in pass coverage.
The Bills have mainly utilized nickel personnel, as evidenced by Buffalo using five defensive backs between 90 and 100 percent of their snaps since 2020 but their percentage of 4-3 base personnel has gone up this year to combat the run. When Milano is out with injury, they also increase their usage of dime personnel with three safeties to help offset his loss in pass coverage and in the past, that setup featured Poyer near the line of scrimmage, Micah Hyde and ex-Ram Taylor Rapp on the back end.
The Bills’ safety position is currently manned by the aging but still capable Poyer and Cole Bishop (an underrated and cerebral athlete). Rapp, who is better playing near the line of scrimmage and the rangy and physical but inconsistent Damar Hamlin are both on injured reserve.
At the boundary cornerback spots are White (who, like Poyer, is back after a year away to replace Rasul Douglas) and Christian Benford and they are backed up by the tall and physical Ja’Marcus Ingram, Dane Jackson (another experienced face back on the practice squad) and speedy rookies Max Hairston and Dorian Strong (also on injured reserve). Slot corner Taron Johnson remains strong in the quickness and tackling departments and he’s backed up by Cam Lewis and rookie Jordan Hancock, who can both fill in at safety too.
2024 saw the Bills end the regular season 11th in points allowed, 12th against the run, 17th in total yards, tied for 18th in sacks and 24th versus the pass. They were also 29th in third down percentage, gave up the most completions, yards and touchdowns in the NFL on screen plays and allowed nine touchdowns on plays of four seconds or longer – the most in the league according to Cover 1’s Eric Turner. However, they were third in takeaways and were fifth-best in allowing plays of 20 yards or more.
Yet the team’s start to the 2025 season has been quite uneven. Although they’re second versus the pass and ninth in takeaways, they’re just 14th in points allowed, 12th in total yards given up and second-last versus the run. Clearly McDermott – who has had a bigger say in play-calling on gameday lately – and Babich have their work cut out for them on this side of the ball.
BILLS’ OFFENSE IS UPPER-ECHELON, BUT QUESTIONS PERSIST ABOUT PASSING GAME
For five consecutive seasons, the Bills boasted one of the NFL’s elite offenses for the first time since the K-Gun was running roughshod over the league more than 30 years ago. Led by quarterback Josh Allen’s improved processing skills both pre and post-snap, ball placement, patience within the pocket and touch on passes and a cadre of gifted pass-catchers, those factors allowed Buffalo to become one of the most feared attacks in pro football (last year Allen was ninth in passer rating and rushing touchdowns and tied for seventh in passing scores).
In 2023 the Bills were sixth in scoring, fourth in total yards, seventh in rushing and eighth in passing. They were also fifth in red zone efficiency, yet their offense performed poorly over a six-game stretch where they averaged just 20.5 points per game. It resulted in then-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey getting the boot in favor of quarterbacks coach and former Carolina Panthers play-caller Joe Brady.
Like their defensive counterparts, the Bills went through changes on this side of the ball because of age, the salary cap and a new coordinator. With Brady taking over the role full-time, the biggest philosophical question on offense for Buffalo was how to retain elements of what made them so good in the first place while adding new and fresh concepts.
Between 2018 and ‘23, Buffalo’s offense was an Erhardt-Perkins system brought in from New England by then-coordinator Brian Daboll. It was built upon concepts involving option and crossing routes from the slot, downfield routes from the outside, run-pass options (especially in the red zone), designed quarterback runs to take advantage of Allen’s mobility and alignments that created favorable matchups and some trick plays with jet/orbit motion and sweeps. It was mostly out of “11” personnel groupings (one back, one tight end and three wide receivers) and “10” personnel (one back, no tight ends, four receivers) – and they would also go no-huddle from time to time to limit the opposition’s defensive calls.
The Bills’ multi-receiver sets were traditionally their offensive calling card. In 2020 they used four wide receivers or more 155 times – the second-most in the NFL at the time – and they utilized someone in motion on 43 percent of their offensive snaps, a huge increase from their 25 percent rate in 2019. Daboll, the ex-head coach of the New York Giants, also called for a passing play on 64 percent of their first downs, according to ESPN Stats and Information (no team with a winning record in the prior 20 years did it more than Buffalo) and that rate continued in 2021 and ’22 with “11” personnel used on nearly three-quarters of their plays.
Daboll’s successor, Ken Dorsey, got away from some of those concepts and tried to rely on the talent at his disposal winning one-on-one matchups instead of having the scheme get them open. Once Brady was promoted, the Bills returned to them. He also included more under-center formations and play-action (which can still stand to increase after being a top-four team in run-fakes in 2020 and ’21), pre-snap shifts, motions and designed passes to running backs and route combinations with defined reads for Allen so he can play within timing and structure, but he does need to be better at creating spacing in his route concepts – especially at the intermediate levels.
Brady got his start in the NFL working for the New Orleans Saints and then-coach Sean Payton. Payton himself came from a melting pot of a background including stints running the Erhardt-Perkins scheme for Bill Parcells in Dallas and learning the West Coast offense from Jim Fassel with the New York Giants and from Jon Gruden during their one-year stint together in Philadelphia in 1997, so Brady will bring a similar approach to the table while likely keeping some things the same in Buffalo.
Their biggest transaction on offense last year was trading the aging Stefon Diggs to Houston. Diggs (now in New England), while never a burner on the outside, was an exceptional route runner who specialized in making contested catches and operated well out of bunch and stack formations – leading him to re-write many of the Bills’ single season receiving records.
In addition to Diggs, Buffalo has let veterans like John Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty and Amari Cooper walk over the years. Many of them were productive, but nothing can last forever – hence the overhaul of the Bills’ wide receiver room.
The Payton offense is built through having big, physical targets who can get open over the middle of the field, especially on deep in-cuts, or “dig” routes (although Buffalo hasn’t utilized them much). Payton has employed such players in those roles before like Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Michael Thomas and Courtland Sutton, and the drafting of Keon Coleman from Florida State last year fits the bill for Brady.
Coleman, whose game evoked comparisons to Colston, Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin coming out of college, brings size and physicality to the boundary ‘X’ position (and possibly the slot) with good body control and strong hands to make contested catches and has some run after the catch ability. He does need to work on his speed, quickness and ability to beat press coverage (along with learning how to be a pro athlete), but in time he may improve in those areas.
Along with Coleman is Curtis Samuel (out for Thursday), who can line up both in the slot and outside the numbers and take handoffs and free agent pickups Joshua Palmer, Elijah Moore and the speedy Mecole Hardman (out for Thursday). Shifty pass-catcher Khalil Shakir mans the slot with his quickness, sure hands and savviness to get open versus zone coverage, Gabriel Davis has returned to the practice squad to supply depth and Tyrell Shavers could prove to be a new weapon after making the team’s active roster out of training camp. Overall, this group doesn’t possess a ton of speed beyond Hardman – which makes the ability to manufacture intermediate and vertical plays harder.
Tight end Dawson Knox is joined by Dalton Kincaid and their diverse skillsets have allowed the Bills to throw curveballs at opponents with multiple tight end sets. Kincaid (out for Thursday), who can line up as the boundary ‘X’ receiver in three-by-one alignments, lived up to the hype with 73 receptions as a rookie two years ago, the most of any first-year Bill and surpassed Pete Metzelaars for the most catches by a Bills tight end in one season. He also became the fourth rookie tight end since 1960 with 70 or more catches in a year.
The Bills’ offensive line is composed of Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern (taking over at center for the departed Mitch Morse), O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown. This crew, along with fullback Reggie Gilliam has mainly executed outside zone runs along with zone-reads, pin-and-pull concepts, traps (especially with Dawkins as the puller), counters, sweeps, split inside zone/duo and sprint draw plays sprinkled in for running back James Cook. Cook, who boasts great vision, patience and burst, is backed up by physical second-year man Ray Davis and ex-Jet Ty Johnson brings solid receiving skills to the table.
The starting front five used to be iffy in providing push in the running game and in pass protection but has become a strength in recent years. In the past, most of the team’s rushing production came from Allen’s legs and few came from their backs – the Bills’ rushing attempts per game in 2022, 18.2, was last in the NFL but that number has jumped to the highest in the NFL since Brady was promoted. In 2023 Allen was taken down just 24 times overall in 17 regular season outings, the best mark in pro football, and the team again led the league with just 14 sacks allowed last year (tied for the sixth-least since 2000).
Buffalo also carried over their trend of using an extra offensive lineman to help in the running game. Now that Edwards has moved into the starting lineup, the sixth guy is currently Alec Anderson and the Bills had the highest rate of offensive snaps with six linemen on the field in ’24 – with most of them being called runs, and were near the top of the NFL in yards per carry and yards per play with six linemen on the field (rookie tight end Jackson Hawes, an excellent blocker and the replacement for Quintin Morris, is being used more in this regard with “13” personnel looks which diversifies what they can throw at opponents).
Another area the Bills needed to clean up was protecting the ball. They used to be one the league’s sloppiest teams – Allen had 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles in 2022 and he led the NFL with 18 interceptions in ’23. Last year Allen cut down on his interception total significantly with just six – a sign of progress in this regard (Allen became the third signal caller in NFL history to start a season with 10 touchdowns and no picks through his team’s first seven games).
In fact, the Bills tied the league record for fewest turnovers in a season with just eight (with the 2019 Saints). They also became the first team ever with less than 15 sacks allowed and fewer than 15 turnovers in the same season.
Buffalo ended the 2024 regular season second in points scored (the highest scoring team in franchise history) and red zone efficiency, 10th in total yards and ninth in rushing and passing and became the first team to ever have 30 passing and 30 rushing touchdowns in one season. They, along with the Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders, were also the top four teams in the NFL on fourth down conversion rate – so far they’re first in the NFL in rushing, second in total yards, fourth in points scored, fifth in red zone efficiency and eighth in passing. They also have the most explosive plays in the NFL with 50 (they also run the ball on 58.5 percent of their first downs and have the third-highest rushing percentage in the NFL with a mark of 48.5).
Ex-49er Mitch Wishnowsky is the team’s third punter this year and kicker Tyler Bass has missed time due to a groin injury – with 41-year-old former All-Pro Matt Prater replacing him. Prater, who holds the NFL record for most 50-plus yards field goals in a career, also owned the league mark for longest career field goal after he connected on a 64-yarder in 2013.
The return game also saw a boost after the signing of Hardman. Hardman and Davis combined for 292 return yards, the fifth-most in a game in franchise history.
12 STATS TO MUSE OVER
· Buffalo faced eight-man boxes 32 percent of the time in 2024, the most in the NFL according to Cover 1’s Erik Turner. It’s a stark contrast to the prior four years in which they went against them 16 percent of the time in 2020 (32nd), 18.6 in ’21 (27th), 20.4 in ’22 (20th) and 19.9 in ’23 (19th).
· Allen had 40 combined scores for the fifth straight year in 2024 – no other quarterback has done it more than three times (Drew Brees from 2011-13) – allowing him to be named the NFL’s Most Valuable Player by the Associated Press, an honor previously bestowed upon just two other Bills (Thurman Thomas in 1991 and O.J. Simpson in ‘73).
· Allen accounted for six touchdowns last week (three passing, three rushing – only the second quarterback ever to do so along with Hall of Famer Otto Graham) but has also had multiple turnovers in three of his last five games. He’s also tied Cam Newton for the most rushing touchdowns of all-time in the regular season.
· Buffalo has forced a turnover in 18 straight home games – their longest streak since a 31-game outing from 1988-92.
· Curiously, the Bills have just a 5-4 mark against teams with a winning record since last year.
· McDermott reached 100 career wins (including playoffs) last week and became the just sixth ever to do it in his first nine seasons – joining George Seifert, Paul Brown, John Madden, Joe Gibbs and Mike McCarthy.
· Should Joey Bosa record another forced fumble this year, it would be his fifth of the year and would tie the franchise record for most forced fumbles in a season.
· Since 2020 Buffalo’s regular season record at home has been 40-8 – a league-best winning percentage of .833. They’ve also scored 30 points in a game 50 times since 2020, the most of any team in the NFL (Detroit is second with 39).
· Buffalo hasn’t won in Houston since a 24-21 victory on November 19, 2006 – they’re 0-5 and haven’t scored more than 20 points in H-Town since.
· The two teams also haven’t played against each other much – since 2017 Buffalo’s faced Houston just three times in the regular season, which is tied for their second-fewest among all AFC teams with the Bengals and Raiders (Cleveland is last with just two games).
· The Bills have won their last six Thursday night games and are 6-1 on Thursday Night Football since 2017, the second-best mark in the NFL in that span.
· Cook needs 32 yards to get 1,000 of them on the ground this year, which would have him join the likes of Thurman Thomas and O.J. Simpson as the only Bills to accomplish the feat through 11 games of a season.
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