STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 18

By Bob Gaughan

2025 record 42-43

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 505-390-15=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER: SAN FRANCISCO+1.5 OVER SEATTLE

Week 18 in the NFL is usually the best week not to bet. In fact, this whole year would have been a good year not to bet. What were considered good teams weren’t, and teams that had easier schedules climbed to the top. Before the season started I had the Rams going over 10.5 wins and winning their division. They did go over, but have no chance to win their division, after losing to Atlanta last week, when I had picked them to win. However three teams went 11-5 ATS this year and the Rams were one of them, along with San Francisco and Seattle. Tampa was a huge disappointment with only 5 wins against the spread.

If you played the over/unders this year, it was just as crazy. Before I tell you who went over the most games, take a guess. I’ll tell you that 6-teams went 10-6 including the Jets and Giants. Yes the Jets & Giants went over the total 10 times. The one team that went over 11 times was the Cowboys. But here’s the shocker. The team that went over the total, the fewest number of games, was the team that lost in last year’s Super Bowl, the Kansas City Chiefs, with 4. So if you had a difficult year, you probably weren’t the only one.

The NFC West has three of the best teams in the league. I can’t see any of them losing to an AFC team in the Super Bowl. As of today, (Wednesday) the Seahawks are a 1.5 favorite at San Francisco. Whichever team wins this game, not only wins the NFC West, but gets a first round bye in the playoffs and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. San Francisco has had a number of injury problems this year (as have many teams) but they have this year’s MVP in Christian McCaffrey and a QB that can, and will throw accurate passes, even though the receiver is covered. (Josh Allen should take lessons from him) I expect this game to be a shootout, unless it rains. I’ve got to go with the better and more consistent QB at home. Take the 49ers and the points. 

Man in Stripes: NYG +10.5/ Cinn -1.5/ KC ML/ Buff -1 ( 6 point teaser +300).

Let's get a little crazy on the last day of 2025.

Looks like Cowboys are resting several players, Dak might play a half , if that, 1,2,3,Cancun is heatd in Jerryworld!!!.. Giants still playing it straight up, they wont get the #1 after beating Vegas.. we tease over 6, 7 and 10..

Cincy with Burrows playing and their weapons playing, Browns w get Garrett the record, maybe a little give it to them by Joe Cool, he goes to the sidelines, and so do the Brownies, just need to win.. Look up the word , tank,  you see 2 teams..Sabres 2014, Raiders NOW!!!!! Even with a third string QB, they beat the quitting  Raiders, which is all we need, sending Travis Swift ( Kelce)out a winner and into retirement and the HOF!! And FINALLY even though half the team will be in bubble wrap, you think the Bills are losing to the pathetic Jets at home on the FINAL GAME AT HIGHMARK STADIUM!!!! Tease it down, Bills just need to win.. In Mitch We Trust!!! I will be there, close to 200 games I've been to.. I will miss the old barn and looking forward to the new place as well.. Also, not many can say they have been at the last game at The Rockpile, The Aud , and now Highmark Stadium!!! A lot of great memories  and alot of drought memories as well!! 

Top 5 alltime for me..

1. Comeback game

2.51-3 over Raiders

3. Jim Kelly's first game vs Jets, a loss in 86

4. Bills breaking the streak 1980 vs Miami

5.Ravens/ Bills opening day 2025.. wildest regular season game, Vikes beating the Bills, a close second.. We thank you for the memories... Happy New Year to everyone.. May you have the best 2026!!! May all your bets be winners!!!!!

MONO: WAKE FOREST +3.5 OVER MISSISSIPPI STATE

Going with Wake Forest +3.5 in the Dukes Mayo Bowl Friday night. Wake had a great first year under new head coach Jake Dickert. They won 8 games and have a chance to put the cherry on top and reach 9 wins for the first time since 2021. Mississippi State at 5-7 got an invite to a bowl game due to some teams opting out. They’ve had a down year, although found themselves competitive in a few spots. Wake sports the better defense in this matchup. Deacons QB Robby Ashford has had some big games this year and this one should be the same. Wake is missing their starting RB, but as we’ve seen this bowl season, there’s talent all over the place down the depth chart. Expect Wake to flex a bit here in this matchup and carry some momentum into the 2026 season. Wake wins and covers, 38-21.

Brutal: #5 Oregon @ #4 Texas Tech (+2.5) 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have had a couple of weeks off, they are refreshed, focused and ready to put some new blood into the pool for these very flawed National Championship proceedings.  This year, the good boosters, anonymous donors, benefactors and oligarchs that back the good boys of Lubbock have poured NIL money into the program

as if they were Ohio State, Texas, Alabama, Michigan, Georgia or Oregon.  As a result, Tech has spent a ton of oil billionaire money and gotten results on the field and off the field they are now competing financially with the Legacy Teams, beating them at their own game.  

Texas Tech are the most balanced team left in the playoff. 

The same cannot be said for Oregon.  After getting out to a quadruple score lead last week over James Madison in Eugene, the Ducks went out and gave up over 450 yards of offense to the Dukes in the second half of that playoff game, allowing JMU to cover the 22 point spread and lose by only 17 points.  This does not bode well for Oregon against Texas Tech.  The Red Raider defense is one of the toughest in the nation, they pressure, they intercept, they hit hard, their pass rush should have QB.  The Ducks have a great rushing attack, but the Red Raiders have the #1 rush defense in the nation. 

This small 2.5 point spread favoring Oregon is based on reputation and the effect of decades of Nike graft backing the Ducks.  Based on the season both teams have had, Tech should be the three point favorite here playing at a neutral site in Miami.  Oregon also has the memory of last year being ranked #1 and falling badly to Ohio State. 

The Big XII is underrated this year, just like the now defunct Pac XII was two years ago.  

 We are siding with the town that gave us Buddy Holly and the university that gave us some of the late Mike Leach's biggest upset victories.  Texas Tech rolls over Oregon and heads to the next round of the National Championship. 

Bonus:  FCS Championship in Frisco, Texas 

Illinois State (+10.5) vs, Montana State 

   Head Coach Brock Spack has been running the Redbirds since 2009.  In this year's playoff he overcame a 24 point spread and beat the mighty North Dakota State 29-28 in Fargo.  Cinderella has one big tour around the ballroom left.  Sprinkle some Money-Line too, but we'll bank on this longshot covering the spread.

Happy New Year, Bonne Annee, Frohes Neus Jahr, ....... Peace and goodwill to all.

Bob: Houston -4/ Denver -6.5 6-point teaser

As mentioned above this is the toughest week of the year. Let’s try to go with teams that we know will be playing hard. Houston still has a chance as the three seed with a win and a Jacksonville loss. Two teams going in different directions. The Texans have won eight straight and the Colts have lost six straight. The Texans defense is the best in football and they won’t have to go up against veteran Phillip Rivers. Riley Leonard against this Texans defense is not a good match-up for the Colts. The Colts have been losing close games with Rivers, I feel the Texans can definitely cover a four point spread going up against Riley Leonard.

In Denver you have a team that can clinch the number one seed with a win. They are facing the Chargers that have thrown in the white towel for this one.  The Chargers are choosing to sit players including Justin Herbert and rest them for the playoffs next week. Trey Lance will be asked to go up against the solid Denver defense that gives up under 20 points per game. The Chargers offensive line is weak and that won’t help Lance. Let’s take the team that wants and needs to win and tease it under a touchdown.