STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 5

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2025 record 12-8

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 475-355-15=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER: 7-point Teaser Tampa Bay +10.5, Indianapolis +.5 

We mentioned in week 1, that the defense usually has the advantage at the start of the NFL season. Only 4 games went over in week 1. After 4-weeks it's now even. 32-games have gone over and 32 have gone under.  Interestingly, Houston has gone under all 4- games while Baltimore has gone over all 4-games, and they play each other this week. 

I'm going back to a 2-team 7-point teaser parley this week, as there are many teams with injury problems, and it's hard to know how the backups, especially quarterbacks, will respond. I'm taking 2-teams that I feel will win outright, Tampa Bay and Indy. I expect the Seahawks game to be close, so I love the extra points and Indy to be angry after a tough road loss.

Man in Stripes:  Lions -6.5 1H over Cincy

I hope you bought that extra points last week with the Bills.. Great week, if not for a Bad Beat in between the hedges , with 7 points in second half..( sorry Mono), we would have swept the board.. BUT, what have you done for me lately.. Lets make some money!!! The Lions under Dan Campbell are over 70 % covering 1st half spreads, they are red hot , after week 1, scoring 62 points in last 3 1st halves.. Cincy 1-3 ATS, in 1H, 19 of last 22 drives have ended in punt/ turnovers under Jake Browning..Half the crowd will be Lions fans, the other half will be booing throughout.. Looks like a long season in the other Queen City.. The full game was 10.5, let's play the Lions to do what they do under Dan Campbell, GET OFF STRONG, short week for Bengals.. We eliminate any back door shenanigans  by only playing 1st half.. 

Others-

LAC -3, bounce back time for Harbaugh

Denver +4.5, Philly been living right so far, I smell an upset

Boise/ UND over 64, first one to 40 wins it

Mono: Louisville -6.5 over Virginia

Gotta get off the schneid here and sticking with a game Saturday although the slate is lousy. The #24 Virginia Cavaliers are heading to Louisville off of one of their biggest wins in recent history, knocking off top 10 Florida State in their building. Chandler Morris adds a different element to their offense and although he threw a couple of picks, was able to take care of business in OT and secure a win. Their reward? A trip to undefeated Louisville off an emotional win themselves, erasing a 17 point deficit at Pitt. Miller Moss had a shaky start but settled in the 2nd half and took care of business. This is a potential let down spot for both teams, but even more so for Virginia on the road. Louisville has a stronger passing attack than Florida State who is strong on the ground. Castellanos and the Seminoles were not able to expose this last week, but Miller Moss will have no problem. I think Louisville gets up early and turns Morris over a few times. Louisville by at least a touchdown. Take the Cardinals -6.5.

Brutal:   #16 Vanderbilt (+11) @  #10 ALABAMA

  Vandy should probably be the higher ranked team, but reputation, history and college football confirmation bias has the Crimson Tide ranked higher (of course!).  The Commodores are undefeated, 5-0 and have won easily this season with the same game plan that had them upset Alabama last year in Nashville.  Remember, Vandy has gone on the road twice this year and won easily at SOUTH CAROLINA and VIRGINIA TECH.  They even got the Hokies coach fired, so going into Tuscaloosa with force-of-nature QB Diego Pavia who leads the team in rushing and passing is no big deal.  Pavia arrived last year with his head coach and offensive coordinator from New Mexico and the Dores have not looked this good since Jay Cutler was spinning the pigskin in central Tennessee.  Yeah, we keep hearing how the Tide has rebounded in typical SEC fashion, hype and hubris, but Diego is not intimidated.  This week he declared: ....” We have beaten them before and if we execute our game plan properly this Saturday, it will not be close.” ...... Ha, there is some bulletin board material for Bama!  

  Well, I like confidence. Vandy is going to win the time of possession as they have in every game so far this year and they should at least cover this spread if not win outright.  I also expect, despite the revenge motivation, a slight letdown for Bama after the big win in Georgia last week.  Cornelius Vanderbilt was a giant Commodore of Industry in the gilded age.  Like Diego Pavia, he did not lack confidence and dominated several industries including steamship building.  He had so much money that he set up a permanent endowment to fund this university till infinity.  They don't spend as much as other giant SEC warthogs that wallow in the trough of NIL, but Vanderbilt has started to invest more money than they ever have before in their sports teams; the results have been positive.  Alabama, despite their storied history, possesses bad karma for me.  They are still a team named after the man-made phenomena of red algae; a disgusting, highly toxic pollutant destroying both fresh and saltwater shorelines everywhere due to overuse of nitrogen and other chemical fertilizers, mostly from massive factory farms. 

  I cannot believe that on moral grounds I prefer the team named after a greedy oligarch from more than a century ago to the annoying, birthright obsessed, tunnel-visioned fan base of the disgusting Crimson Tide.  Yet, this is the way I read the tea leaves.  Roll tide right into the loss column for any team that promotes the popularity of malignant HAB's (Harmful Algae Blooms). 

  Go Dores! 

Bob: Chargers -2.5 over Washington

I know that the Commanders are most likely getting Jaden Daniels back but I like this as a bounce back spot for the Chargers.  The Chargers played a poor game in New York and lost to the Giants. The Chargers out gained the Giants by 88 yards but were done in by two interceptions. Washington gave up 435 yards to Atlanta and Micheal Pennix. Seems like a bounce back game for Herbert. Bijan had 181 total yards from scrimmage. This game could be a big one for Omarion Hampton too.  Good teams tend to bounce back after a disappointing loss and going home makes that a little easier.  I like giving up just under a field goal with the home team.