TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF BILLS-BENGALS
- Tony Fiorello
- 5 days ago
- 19 min read
by Tony Fiorello
Welcome to Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the Buffalo Bills’ upcoming opponent and what each team might do to emerge victorious.
The Bills’ 13th game of 2025 will take place at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York as they face the Cincinnati Bengals. Here’s what you should know:
BENGALS’ OFFENSE UP AND DOWN IN 2025
The Cincinnati Bengals’ head honcho is former Rams quarterbacks coach Zac Taylor. Naturally, Taylor employs a version of his former colleague Sean McVay’s offensive playbook which emphasizes a running game built around zone-blocking (especially to the outside on “stretch” plays) and passes that are created off the threat of play-action. It’s a West Coast-style of offense that can create a lot of big plays down the field from craftily designed routes that work off one another, and the skill position players often line up in reduced splits to the line of scrimmage to become both extra blockers on handoffs and to have more room to run routes on the field. Taylor also loves to make use of run-pass options, or RPOs – especially out of the shotgun.
At the helm of this attack is former first overall draft choice Joe Burrow. Burrow not only possesses a strong arm and high football I.Q. but also has a strong sense of rhythm and timing for a young quarterback, is consistently accurate and moves well within the pocket. He’s aggressive when attacking one-on-one matchups outside the numbers and executes well out of empty sets – allowing him to become the first quarterback ever to be selected first overall in an NFL Draft and start in a Super Bowl within two years.
Those movement skills have come in handy as Burrow has consistently operated behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines – resulting in Burrow being under constant duress, taking a lot of sacks and sometimes anticipating pressure when there wasn’t any – leading to hurried throws, interceptions and injuries (he missed time earlier this season with a turf toe ailment).
Over the last several years the Bengals have addressed those issues by replacing names such as Jonah Williams, Quinton Spain, Trey Hopkins, Hakeem Andeniji, Isaiah Prince and Alex Kappa with Orlando Brown Jr., Dylan Fairchild, Ted Karras, Dalton Risner, Amarius Mims and the injured Cordell Volson. Yet the results have largely been the same.
While pass protection has long been an issue for the Bengals, their run blocking isn’t all that bad and one of pro football’s better running backs, Chase Brown, takes advantage of it. His solid vision, burst and good cutback ability have meshed well with Taylor’s scheme – especially in “duo” concepts out of “12” personnel (one back, two tight ends) groupings.
Burrow has plenty of weapons at his disposal in the passing game. Ja’Marr Chase, his former college teammate at LSU, has done most of his damage as the boundary ‘X’ receiver on three-by-one trips formations and slant patterns on slant-flat combinations. He’s also dangerous in creating yards after the catch. Tee Higgins is a red zone target and excels on vertical routes and Andrei Iosivas is their third wideout. Drew Sample and Mike Gesicki are their tight ends.
Cincinnati is 11th in passing but just 16th in scoring, 22nd in total yards and 30th in rushing. Those numbers have likely been affected by the absence of Burrow earlier this year.
CINCINNATI’S DEFENSE HAS HIT ROCK BOTTOM
After a couple of down seasons on this side of the ball, Taylor and company decided to part ways with coordinator Lou Anarumo in favor of Al Golden, the former defensive play-caller at Notre Dame, head coach at the University of Miami and one-time linebackers coach in Cincinnati. Golden brought in some new ideas – Anarumo’s approach was mainly zone-based while Golden has tried to implement more man coverage, for example.
Golden also likes to double-mug A and B-gaps with second and third-level defenders and present some overload fronts before the snap, but his unit has multiple warts. They tackle poorly, aren’t physical when they’re in zone coverage (and get too deep in their drops) and can be beaten horizontally and underneath in the passing game. Out-breaking routes especially can kill them.
Defensive end Trey Hendrickson, formerly of the New Orleans Saints, has had 14 sacks or more three times in the last four years but had battled multiple injuries in 2025 and is out for Sunday. His cohorts on the Bengals’ defensive line include B.J. Hill, T.J. Slayton Jr., rookie Shemar Stewart (injured) and former first-round draft pick Myles Murphy, who hasn’t lived up to that billing thus far. A pair of rookies, Barrett Carter (who has flashed athleticism and lateral agility while replacing the recently-traded Logan Wilson) and Demetrius Knight Jr. are their starters at linebacker – both can pressure quarterbacks.
Besides their lack of a pass rush beyond Hendrickson, the Bengals’ secondary is their weakest link. Cam Taylor-Britt is injured, former first-round pick Dax Hill (who they like to match up against tight ends with) moves inside in subpackages but isn’t anything special on the outside and DJ Turner II has some ball skills but is otherwise average. The safeties, Geno Stone (who is decent on the back end but can’t drop down into the box to help stop the run) and Jordan Battle (a poor tackler and not especially athletic) are so-so.
This season Cincinnati’s defense has hit rock bottom. Last or second-last in most statistical categories, they have nowhere to go but up.
BUFFALO’S DEFENSE USUALLY GOOD, BUT HAS HAD A ROUGH 2024 AND ‘25
For most of head coach Sean McDermott’s time in Buffalo, the Bills’ defense was one of the league’s best. Points allowed (fourth in the NFL in that category in 2023), total yards per game allowed (ninth), passing yards given up (seventh), rushing yards surrendered (15th), takeaways (third), interceptions (tied for fourth) and sacks (fourth, tied for second-most in their history with the 2014 team) have generally been the categories that the Bills have excelled at over the years, with 2023’s sack total being the best of the McDermott era.
2024, however, was a year of transition for the Bills on defense. Due to age and salary cap complications, out the door were longtime veterans such as Jordan Poyer and Tyrel Dodson (Miami Dolphins), Tre’Davious White (Baltimore Ravens), Leonard Floyd (San Francisco 49ers, who had 10.5 sacks in 2023 – the most of any Bill since Lorenzo Alexander in 2016), Linval Joseph (Dallas Cowboys), Tim Settle (Houston Texans), Kaylon “Poona” Ford (Los Angeles Chargers), Dane Jackson and Shaq Lawson (Carolina Panthers).
Especially when one includes names from the past on the defensive line such as Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Star Lotulelei, Quinton Jefferson, Carlos “Boogie” Basham, Trent Murphy, Vernon Butler, Justin Zimmer, Efe Obada, Harrison Phillips, Dawuane Smoot, Austin Johnson and Casey Toohill – that’s a lot of turnover during the last eight years. The answer, according to McDermott, general manager Brandon Beane and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich, is youth and cheap veterans to provide cost-effective depth (Buffalo made it to the AFC title game last year with the third-most dead money on the salary cap in the NFL and used just 71 percent of the cap).
Some of those younger players – albeit young veterans since they are in their fifth and sixth professional seasons, respectively – who have been asked to take on a greater role include Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who can both line up on the edge and go inside in passing situations. Da’Quan Jones, perhaps their best run-stuffing lineman, is effective on T-T stunts with Ed Oliver (out for the rest of the regular season), an excellent gap penetrator.
They are backed up by familiar faces in Lawson and Jordan Phillips and second-year men Javon Solomon and DeWayne Carter (Carter is out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon) while rookies Deone Walker, T.J. Sanders and Landon Jackson (currently injured) learn the ropes of the NFL. Ex-Charger Joey Bosa, a five-time Pro Bowler and 10-year pro, fills the role that future Hall of Famer Von Miller settled into after a torn ACL 11 games into his first season compromised his play on the field. Additionally, veterans Morgan Fox, Larry Ogunjobi and Michael Hoecht provide valuable depth (Hoecht, out for the season after tearing his Achilles tendon, is an intelligent and versatile chess piece who can be deployed in multiple ways).
Over the years Buffalo has been inconsistent in two areas – creating a consistent pass rush and stopping the run. The run issues are mainly caused by poor tackling (their missed and broken tackle percentage has been among the highest in the NFL for years), a lack of gap integrity and ability to get off blocks, subpar eye discipline, inefficient communication and an inability to handle motion and misdirection (which causes issues with leverage, spacing and run fits). Perhaps the infusion of new faces this season can eventually put those issues to bed once and for all, but they’ve reared their ugly heads yet again in 2025.
Schematically the Bills’ defense mostly relies on basic zones after the snap (they’re typically among the top units in the NFL in usage of coverages with two high safeties such as Cover Two, Four and Six, although they’ve used more single-high coverages recently so they could put more bodies in the box to stop the run and to limit communication) but before the snap it is complex. Safety rotations to disguise their intentions keep opposing quarterbacks guessing and selective pressure looks at the line of scrimmage and coverage exchanges are the team’s calling cards.
Those blitz looks usually happen in the A-gaps with the smaller, but smart, speedy and athletic Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard to confuse opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks, but Buffalo rarely sends five or more pass rushers – their favorite blitz tactic besides A-gappers are four-man zone exchanges. In 2024’s regular season they were 27th in blitz rate but Buffalo blitzed Lamar Jackson on 15 out of 31 drop-backs (48.4%) in the playoffs, their fifth-highest blitz rate in a game under McDermott and their highest in a game since Week 15 of 2021, according to Next Gen Stats.
Bernard (out for Sunday) has become a good blitzer and coverage ‘backer – his 6.5 sacks in 2023 were the most by an off-the-ball linebacker in Bills annals and he became the first NFL player since Seth Joyner in 1991 with six sacks, three picks and three fumble recoveries in a season. He and Milano are also adept at being used to spy quarterbacks – they spied Jackson on every third down in last year’s postseason – but Bernard, like most of the Bills, has dealt with injuries and hasn’t quite looked like himself.
For the third straight year, Milano suffered another major injury – this time a pectoral problem (although he’s healthy enough to play as of now). When he misses time, Dorian Williams usually picks up the slack. Williams has displayed flashes of quickness and burst but is sometimes slow to key and diagnose at the line of scrimmage. He also takes many false steps and needs to process better while in coverage, but is athletic, long and fluid and has improved with more experience game by game. He had increased playing time in the playoffs to stop Baltimore’s running game, as evidenced by being on the field for a third of Buffalo’s snaps.
Additional depth comes from former Carolina Panther Shaq Thompson and Joe Andreessen. Andreessen, a University at Buffalo product who hails from nearby Lancaster, showed excellent diagnostic skills at the line of scrimmage in the preseason while also displaying strong hands, a quick downhill trigger that allows him to shoot gaps well and some speed and range. It helps that he played in a similar role as Milano while in college. Thompson, meanwhile, has turned back the clock with some strong performances in both pass coverage and run support.
The Bills have mainly utilized nickel personnel, as evidenced by Buffalo using five defensive backs between 90 and 100 percent of their snaps since 2020 but their percentage of 4-3 base personnel has gone up this year to combat the run. When Milano is out with injury, they also increase their usage of dime personnel with three safeties to help offset his loss in pass coverage and in the past, that setup featured Poyer near the line of scrimmage, Micah Hyde and ex-Ram Taylor Rapp on the back end.
The Bills’ safety position is currently manned by the aging but still capable Poyer and Cole Bishop (an underrated and cerebral athlete). Rapp, who is better playing near the line of scrimmage and the rangy and physical but inconsistent Damar Hamlin are both on injured reserve – filling their absence is veteran Darnell Savage.
At the boundary cornerback spots are White (who, like Poyer, is back after a year away to replace Rasul Douglas) and Christian Benford and they are backed up by Jackson (another experienced face back on the practice squad) and speedy rookies Max Hairston and Dorian Strong (also on injured reserve). Slot corner Taron Johnson remains strong in the quickness and tackling departments and he’s backed up by Cam Lewis and rookie Jordan Hancock, who can both fill in at safety too.
2024 saw the Bills end the regular season 11th in points allowed, 12th against the run, 17th in total yards, tied for 18th in sacks and 24th versus the pass. They were also 29th in third down percentage, gave up the most completions, yards and touchdowns in the NFL on screen plays and allowed nine touchdowns on plays of four seconds or longer – the most in the league according to Cover 1’s Eric Turner. However, they were third in takeaways and were fifth-best in allowing plays of 20 yards or more.
Yet the team’s start to the 2025 season has been quite uneven. Although they’re first versus the pass and eighth in total yards given up, they’re just 13th in points allowed, third-last versus the run and their sack and pressure rate over the last four weeks has been among the worst in the NF (although their amount of takeaways have gone up – Buffalo had just five in their first six games and now have had 10 in their last six). Clearly McDermott – who has had a bigger say in play-calling on gameday lately – and Babich have their work cut out for them on this side of the ball.
BILLS’ OFFENSE IS UPPER-ECHELON, BUT QUESTIONS PERSIST ABOUT PASSING GAME
For five consecutive seasons, the Bills boasted one of the NFL’s elite offenses for the first time since the K-Gun was running roughshod over the league more than 30 years ago. Led by quarterback Josh Allen’s improved processing skills both pre and post-snap, ball placement, patience within the pocket and touch on passes and a cadre of gifted pass-catchers, those factors allowed Buffalo to become one of the most feared attacks in pro football (last year Allen was ninth in passer rating and rushing touchdowns and tied for seventh in passing scores).
In 2023 the Bills were sixth in scoring, fourth in total yards, seventh in rushing and eighth in passing. They were also fifth in red zone efficiency, yet their offense performed poorly over a six-game stretch where they averaged just 20.5 points per game. It resulted in then-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey getting the boot in favor of quarterbacks coach and former Carolina Panthers play-caller Joe Brady.
Like their defensive counterparts, the Bills went through changes on this side of the ball because of age, the salary cap and a new coordinator. With Brady taking over the role full-time, the biggest philosophical question on offense for Buffalo was how to retain elements of what made them so good in the first place while adding new and fresh concepts.
Between 2018 and ‘23, Buffalo’s offense was an Erhardt-Perkins system brought in from New England by then-coordinator Brian Daboll. It was built upon concepts involving option and crossing routes from the slot, downfield routes from the outside, run-pass options (especially in the red zone), designed quarterback runs to take advantage of Allen’s mobility and alignments that created favorable matchups and some trick plays with jet/orbit motion and sweeps. It was mostly out of “11” personnel groupings (one back, one tight end and three wide receivers) and “10” personnel (one back, no tight ends, four receivers) – and they would also go no-huddle from time to time to limit the opposition’s defensive calls.
The Bills’ multi-receiver sets were traditionally their offensive calling card. In 2020 they used four wide receivers or more 155 times – the second-most in the NFL at the time – and they utilized someone in motion on 43 percent of their offensive snaps, a huge increase from their 25 percent rate in 2019. Daboll, the ex-head coach of the New York Giants, also called for a passing play on 64 percent of their first downs, according to ESPN Stats and Information (no team with a winning record in the prior 20 years did it more than Buffalo – heading into Week 14 the Bills are the opposite as they now run the ball on first down quite a bit) and that rate continued in 2021 and ’22 with “11” personnel used on nearly three-quarters of their plays.
Daboll’s successor, Ken Dorsey, got away from some of those concepts and tried to rely on the talent at his disposal winning one-on-one matchups instead of having the scheme get them open. Once Brady was promoted, the Bills returned to them. He also included more under-center formations and play-action (which can still stand to increase after being a top-four team in run-fakes in 2020 and ’21), pre-snap shifts, motions and designed passes to running backs and route combinations with defined reads for Allen so he can play within timing and structure, but he does need to be better at creating spacing in his route concepts – especially at the intermediate levels.
Brady got his start in the NFL working for the New Orleans Saints and then-coach Sean Payton. Payton himself came from a melting pot of a background including stints running the Erhardt-Perkins scheme for Bill Parcells in Dallas and learning the West Coast offense from Jim Fassel with the New York Giants and from Jon Gruden during their one-year stint together in Philadelphia in 1997, so Brady will bring a similar approach to the table while likely keeping some things the same in Buffalo.
Their biggest transaction on offense last year was trading the aging Stefon Diggs to Houston. Diggs (now in New England), while never a burner on the outside, was an exceptional route runner who specialized in making contested catches and operated well out of bunch and stack formations – leading him to re-write many of the Bills’ single season receiving records.
In addition to Diggs, Buffalo has let veterans like John Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty and Amari Cooper walk over the years. Many of them were productive, but nothing can last forever – hence the overhaul of the Bills’ wide receiver room.
The Payton offense is built through having big, physical targets who can get open over the middle of the field, especially on deep in-cuts, or “dig” routes (although Buffalo hasn’t utilized them much). Payton has employed such players in those roles before like Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Michael Thomas and Courtland Sutton, and the drafting of Keon Coleman from Florida State last year fits the bill for Brady.
Coleman, whose game evoked comparisons to Colston, Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin coming out of college, brings size and physicality to the boundary ‘X’ position (and possibly the slot) with good body control and strong hands to make contested catches and has some run after the catch ability. He does need to work on his speed, quickness and ability to beat press coverage – along with learning how to be a pro athlete – but in time he may improve in those areas.
Along with Coleman is Curtis Samuel (out for Sunday), who can line up both in the slot and outside the numbers and take handoffs, free agent pickup Joshua Palmer and the speedy pair of Brandin Cooks and Mecole Hardman (out for Sunday). Shifty pass-catcher Khalil Shakir mans the slot with his quickness, sure hands and savviness to get open versus zone coverage, Gabriel Davis has returned to supply depth and Tyrell Shavers, a good blocker, has proven to be a new weapon after making the team’s active roster out of training camp. Overall, this group doesn’t possess a ton of speed beyond veterans Cooks and Hardman – which makes the ability to manufacture intermediate and vertical plays harder.
Tight end Dawson Knox is joined by Dalton Kincaid and their diverse skillsets have allowed the Bills to throw curveballs at opponents with multiple tight end sets. Kincaid, who can line up as the boundary ‘X’ receiver in three-by-one alignments, lived up to the hype with 73 receptions as a rookie two years ago, the most of any first-year Bill and surpassed Pete Metzelaars for the most catches by a Bills tight end in one season. He also became the fourth rookie tight end since 1960 with 70 or more catches in a year.
The Bills’ offensive line is composed of Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern (taking over at center for the departed Mitch Morse), O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown (out for Sunday, replaced by Ryan VanDemark). This crew, along with fullback Reggie Gilliam has mainly executed outside zone runs along with zone-reads, pin-and-pull concepts, traps (especially with Dawkins as the puller), counters, sweeps, split inside zone/duo and sprint draw plays sprinkled in for running back James Cook. Cook, who boasts great vision, patience, burst and cutback ability, is backed up by physical second-year man Ray Davis and ex-Jet Ty Johnson brings solid receiving skills to the table.
The starting front five used to be iffy in providing push in the running game and in pass protection but has become a strength in recent years. In the past, most of the team’s rushing production came from Allen’s legs and few came from their backs – the Bills’ rushing attempts per game in 2022, 18.2, was last in the NFL but that number has jumped to the highest in the NFL since Brady was promoted. In 2023 Allen was taken down just 24 times overall in 17 regular season outings, the best mark in pro football, and the team again led the league with just 14 sacks allowed last year (tied for the sixth-least since 2000).
Buffalo also carried over their trend of using an extra offensive lineman to help in the running game. Now that Edwards has moved into the starting lineup, the sixth guy is currently Alec Anderson and the Bills had the highest rate of offensive snaps with six linemen on the field in ’24 – with most of them being called runs, and were near the top of the NFL in yards per carry and yards per play with six linemen on the field (rookie tight end Jackson Hawes, an excellent blocker and the replacement for Quintin Morris, is being used more in this regard with “13” personnel looks which diversifies what they can throw at opponents).
Another area the Bills needed to clean up was protecting the ball. They used to be one the league’s sloppiest teams – Allen had 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles in 2022 and he led the NFL with 18 interceptions in ’23. Last year Allen cut down on his interception total significantly with just six – a sign of progress in this regard (Allen became the third signal caller in NFL history to start a season with 10 touchdowns and no picks through his team’s first seven games).
In fact, the Bills tied the league record for fewest turnovers in a season with just eight (with the 2019 Saints). They also became the first team ever with less than 15 sacks allowed and fewer than 15 turnovers in the same season.
Buffalo ended the 2024 regular season second in points scored (the highest scoring team in franchise history) and red zone efficiency, 10th in total yards and ninth in rushing and passing and became the first team to ever have 30 passing and 30 rushing touchdowns in one season. They, along with the Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders, were also the top four teams in the NFL on fourth down conversion rate – so far they’re first in the NFL in rushing and time of possession, second in total yards, fifth in scoring and 10th in passing.
Ex-49er Mitch Wishnowsky is the team’s third punter this year and kicker Tyler Bass is out for the season due to a groin injury – with 41-year-old former All-Pro Matt Prater replacing him. Prater, who holds the NFL record for most 50-plus yards field goals in a career, also owned the league mark for longest career field goal after he connected on a 64-yarder in 2013.
12 STATS TO MUSE OVER
· Buffalo faced eight-man boxes 32 percent of the time in 2024, the most in the NFL according to Cover 1’s Erik Turner. It’s a stark contrast to the prior four years in which they went against them 16 percent of the time in 2020 (32nd), 18.6 in ’21 (27th), 20.4 in ’22 (20th) and 19.9 in ’23 (19th).
· Allen had 40 combined scores for the fifth straight year in 2024 – no other quarterback has done it more than three times (Drew Brees from 2011-13) – allowing him to be named the NFL’s Most Valuable Player by the Associated Press, an honor previously bestowed upon just two other Bills (Thurman Thomas in 1991 and O.J. Simpson in ‘73).
· Allen has surpassed Cam Newton for the most rushing touchdowns of all-time by a quarterback in the regular season, but he’s thrown an interception in each of his last four games – tied for the second-longest streak of his career (he had nine straight in 2023).
· Buffalo has forced a turnover in 18 straight home games – their longest streak since a 31-game outing from 1988-92.
· Bosa recorded his fifth forced fumble of the year, tying the franchise record for the most in one season with Bruce Smith in 1990, Nate Clements in 2004 and Aaron Schobel in 2007.
· Buffalo’s season-high 249 yards rushing versus Pittsburgh are the most the Steelers have surrendered to a road team since the Bills had 310 against them in 1975. They also had possession of the ball for 41:59, the third-most in a game in franchise history and they also allowed a season-low seven points and 58 yards on the ground.
· The Bills also called for a running play on 63.5 percent of their offensive snaps (their fourth-most since 2018) and 130 of Cook’s 144 yards came from under-center formations. Additionally, 82 percent of Cook’s runs over the last six games have come from under center and none of those 41 runs a week ago involved a pulling lineman (Cook also has the most rushing yards in a season by a Bill since LeSean McCoy in 2016).
· Buffalo is 23-4 in December and January regular season games since 2020 – tops in the NFL. They’re also 5-2 against team .500 or better.
· According to Cover 1, Allen has a scramble percentage of 60 percent off play-action this year – far and away the highest in the NFL and 18 percent higher than the next team (the league average is 18.6 and his next-closest season was just 25 percent back in 2021).
· The Bills won 10 in a row versus Cincinnati from 1989-2010, but since then they’ve gone 2-6 against the Bengals.
· According to NGS, Benford – who snagged an interception and returned a fumble recovery for a touchdown against Pittsburgh – has limited his opponents to a 35.1 passer rating over the last six games when he’s shadowed that team’s top wide receiver.
· Last week was Buffalo’s first road game with 200 or more rushing yards and a time of possession of 40 minutes or more since Week Nine of the 1999 season at Washington.