TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF BILLS-JETS
- Tony Fiorello
- Sep 13
- 19 min read
by Tony Fiorello
Welcome to Week Two of the 2025 NFL season. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the Buffalo Bills’ upcoming opponent and what each team might do to emerge victorious.
The Bills’ second game of 2025 will take place at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey as they face the New York Jets. Here’s what you should know:
GANG GREEN’S DEFENSE STILL SOLID, BUT WITH A NEW VISION
A unit that was overseen by former head coach Robert Saleh and ex-defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich over the last four years has different leaders in 2025. New head honcho Aaron Glenn – a former Jets cornerback and a 15-year NFL veteran – comes in from Detroit where he spent the last four seasons turning around their defense, and to help him coordinate it Glenn employs the well-traveled Steve Wilks.
In his first three campaigns in the Motor City the Lions’ defense didn’t perform consistently, but 2024 finally saw Glenn enjoy the fruits of his labor to a degree. First on third down, seventh in points allowed, fifth versus the run and tied for 10th in takeaways (but just 20th in total yards given up and third-last against the pass), Glenn’s charges – who execute well-designed pressure schemes such as overload concepts – also used one of the league’s highest percentages of man coverage and blitzes. Perhaps that approach will carry over to Manhattan.
New York once had shaky depth among their defensive backs, but not anymore. An underrated pair in Tony Adams and Andre Cisco patrols the Jets’ back end while former Baltimore Raven Brandon Stephens holds down one outside cornerback spot (Stephens is big and physical but can be had by good route runners). Michael Carter II, who is normally the team’s slot defender, is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game.
The opposite boundary corner position is occupied by Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner. 2022’s fourth overall draft pick out of the University of Cincinnati, Gardner – who boasts smarts, length, strength to jam wideouts in press coverage and adeptness in both man and zone coverage – may be the best Cover Three corner to enter the NFL since Richard Sherman. Given the amount of zone the Jets use, they rarely ask Gardner to shadow top wideouts in man coverage but that may change now.
Up front New York has a pair of talented defensive tackles in All-Pro Quinnen Williams and ex-Bill Harrison Phillips. Jermaine Johnson, Michael Clemons and Will McDonald IV are the team’s main edge rushers and can rush with quickness and speed to power.
Quincy Williams and Jamien Sherwood are New York’s starters at linebacker. As talented as they are, they’ve shown a tendency to have problems containing running plays on crack-toss concepts and dealing with unusual formations – they don’t communicate well when trying to defend unbalanced lines, for example. Williams also relies too much on his instincts and Sherwood is still learning the position after switching from safety after his college career, however they’re both good blitzers.
As the Jets have accumulated more talent over the last few years, their defense has taken some leaps in improvement. After ranking dead last in the NFL in points allowed and total yards surrendered in 2021, New York was fourth and third in total yards given up in 2022 and ’23. Last year they were third in total yards allowed, fourth against the pass and tied for 11th in sacks but 17th against the run, 20th in points allowed and tied for 20th in takeaways. They were also one of the most penalized teams in football.
BIG APPLE’S OFFENSE STARTING OVER
There have also been changes on the Jets’ offensive side of the ball. Glenn and first-year offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand are bringing an approach that they utilized in Detroit to much success and has its roots going back to Goff’s Rams under Sean McVay and Sean Payton’s New Orleans Saints. It’s one with plenty of under-center play-action (no team uses more under-center passes or play-action more than Detroit), shifts, motions, high-low concepts and downfield option routes with defined reads.
New York also has a new quarterback. After the pair and new general manager Darren Mougey let aging future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers walk, they decided to take a flyer on a reclamation project in former Chicago Bears first-round draft pick Justin Fields. Fields – while possessing physical gifts like a strong arm, toughness, mobility and speed – will leave the pocket too quickly if his first read isn’t there or if he perceives pressure. He has a late release and needs to work on his anticipatory skills and processing coverages post-snap, and although those mental abilities have improved along with his sense of timing and ability to manipulate defenders with his eyes, Fields still hasn’t been consistent enough.
The Jets’ wide receivers include one of the league’s best in Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard and the well-traveled Josh Reynolds. Jeremy Ruckert and Mason Taylor are New York’s tight ends.
Breece Hall, who possesses good size and movement skills with pass-catching ability, is the Jets’ top running back and is backed up by Braelon Allen. The two operate behind an offensive line that has undergone a facelift – while Alijah Vera-Tucker (currently injured) remains Gang Green’s right guard, new faces include John Simpson, Joe Tippmann, Josh Myers and a pair of recent first round draft picks in Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou. Fashanu had a rough rookie season a year ago – his concerns coming out of Penn State were that he has balance and body control issues while reaching and lunging at defenders too often and displaying stiffness in pass protection. Those must be coached out of him.
Few areas on offense were good statistically for the Jets in 2024. They were 24th in total yards, 16th in passing, second-last in rushing and tied for 26th in scoring. Additionally, they haven’t scored more than 22 points in each of their last 12 outings against the Bills.
BUFFALO’S DEFENSE USUALLY GOOD, BUT UNDERGOING A MAKEOVER IN 2024 AND ‘25
For most of head coach Sean McDermott’s time in Buffalo, the Bills’ defense has been one of the league’s best. Points allowed (fourth in the NFL in that category in 2023), total yards per game allowed (ninth), passing yards given up (seventh), rushing yards surrendered (15th), takeaways (third), interceptions (tied for fourth) and sacks (fourth, tied for second-most in their history with the 2014 team) have generally been the categories that the Bills have excelled at over the years, with 2023’s sack total being the best of the McDermott era.
2024, however, was a year of transition for the Bills on defense. Due to age and salary cap complications, out the door were longtime veterans such as Jordan Poyer and Tyrel Dodson (Miami Dolphins), Tre’Davious White (Baltimore Ravens), Leonard Floyd (San Francisco 49ers, who had 10.5 sacks a year ago – the most of any Bill since Lorenzo Alexander in 2016), Linval Joseph (Dallas Cowboys), Tim Settle (Houston Texans), Kaylon “Poona” Ford (Los Angeles Chargers), Dane Jackson (Carolina Panthers) and Shaq Lawson.
Especially when one includes names from the past on the defensive line such as Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Star Lotulelei, Quinton Jefferson, Carlos “Boogie” Basham, Trent Murphy, Vernon Butler, Justin Zimmer, Efe Obada, Harrison Phillips, Dawuane Smoot, Austin Johnson and Casey Toohill, that’s a lot of turnover over the last eight years. The answer, according to McDermott, general manager Brandon Beane and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich, is youth and cheap veterans to provide cost-effective depth (Buffalo made it to the AFC title game with the third-most dead money on the salary cap in the NFL and used just 71 percent of the cap).
Some of those younger players – albeit young veterans since they are in their fifth and sixth professional seasons, respectively – who have been asked to take on a greater role include Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who can line up both on the edge and go inside in passing situations. Da’Quan Jones, perhaps their best run-stuffing lineman, is effective on T-T stunts with Ed Oliver (out for Sunday's game), an excellent gap penetrator.
They are backed up by a familiar face in Jordan Phillips (who is on the practice squad) and second-year men Javon Solomon and DeWayne Carter (Carter is out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon) while rookies Deone Walker, T.J. Sanders and Landon Jackson learn the ropes of the NFL. Ex-Charger Joey Bosa, a five-time Pro Bowler and 10-year pro, will likely get between 10-15 snaps a game in obvious pass rush situations and fill the role that future Hall of Famer Von Miller eventually settled into after a torn ACL 11 games into his first season compromised his play on the field. Additionally, veterans Larry Ogunjobi and Michael Hoecht will provide valuable depth after they return from six-game suspensions (Hoecht in particular is an intelligent and versatile athlete who McDermott and Babich can deploy in multiple ways).
Over the years Buffalo has been inconsistent in two areas – creating a consistent pass rush and, from time to time, stopping the run. The run issues are mainly caused by poor tackling (their missed and broken tackle percentage has been among the highest in the NFL over the years), a lack of gap integrity, inefficient communication and an inability to handle motion (which causes issues with leverage, spacing and run fits). Perhaps the infusion of new faces this season can put those issues to bed once and for all, but in Week One they reared their ugly heads again in the form of allowing Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson to rush for 239 yards on 24 carries – an average of nearly 10 yards per attempt – allowing the Bills to surrender 40 points in a game for the first time since 2021.
Schematically the Bills’ defense mostly relies on basic zones after the snap (they’re usually among the top units in the NFL in usage of coverages with two high safeties such as Cover Two, Four and Six, although they used more single-high man coverages against the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens last year so they could put more bodies in the box to stop the run and to limit communication) but before the snap it is complex. Safety rotations to disguise their intentions keep opposing quarterbacks guessing and selective pressure looks at the line of scrimmage and coverage exchanges are the team’s calling cards.
Those blitz looks usually happen in the A-gaps with the smaller, but smart, speedy and athletic Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard to confuse opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks, but Buffalo rarely sends five or more pass rushers – their favorite blitz tactic besides A-gappers are four-man zone exchanges. In 2024’s regular season they were 27th in blitz rate but Buffalo blitzed Lamar Jackson on 15 out of 31 dropbacks (48.4%) in the playoffs, their fifth-highest blitz rate in a game under McDermott and their highest in a game since Week 15 of 2021, according to Next Gen Stats.
Bernard has become a good blitzer and coverage ‘backer – his 6.5 sacks in 2023 were the most by an off-the-ball linebacker in Bills annals and he became the first NFL player since Seth Joyner in 1991 with six sacks, three picks and three fumble recoveries in a season. He and Milano are also adept at being used to spy quarterbacks – they spied Jackson on every third down in last year’s postseason.
For the second straight year, Milano suffered a major injury – this time a torn bicep – but is now back and presumably healthy. When he missed time last season, backup Dorian Williams picked up the slack. The Bills struggled to defend the run at times because of a lack of experience by Williams – he displayed flashes of quickness and burst but was slow to key and diagnose at the line of scrimmage. He also took many false steps and needed to process better while in coverage, but is athletic, long and fluid, and has improved with more experience game by game. He had increased playing time in the playoffs to stop Baltimore’s running game, as evidenced by being on the field for a third of Buffalo’s snaps.
Additional depth comes from former Carolina Panther Shaq Thompson and Joe Andreessen. Andreessen, a University at Buffalo product who hails from nearby Lancaster, showed excellent diagnostic skills at the line of scrimmage in the preseason while also displaying strong hands, a quick downhill trigger that allows him to shoot gaps well and some speed and range. It helps that he played in a similar role as Milano while in college.
The Bills mainly utilize nickel personnel, as evidenced by Buffalo using five defensive backs between 90 and 100 percent of their snaps since 2020. When Milano is out with injury, they’ve increased their usage of dime personnel with three safeties to help offset his loss in pass coverage and in the past, that setup featured Poyer near the line of scrimmage, Micah Hyde and ex-Ram Taylor Rapp on the back end.
The Bills’ safety position is now manned by Rapp, who is better playing near the line of scrimmage, the rangy and physical but inconsistent Damar Hamlin and Cole Bishop, who is an underrated and cerebral athlete. Poyer (who recently re-signed with the team following a one-year stint in Miami) is on the practice squad providing veteran depth.
At the boundary cornerback spots are White (also back after a year away to replace Rasul Douglas) and Christian Benford and they are backed up by the tall and physical Ja’Marcus Ingram, Dane Jackson (another experienced face back on the practice squad) and speedy rookies Max Hairston, Dorian Strong and Jordan Hancock. Hairston is currently out with a sprained knee and will miss the first four games. Slot corner Taron Johnson (out for Sunday's game) remains elite – especially in in the quickness and tackling departments – and he’s backed up by tweener Cam Lewis, who can also fill in at safety.
2024 saw the Bills end the regular season 11th in points allowed, 12th against the run, 17th in total yards, tied for 18th in sacks and 24th versus the pass. They were also 29th in third down percentage, gave up the most completions, yards and touchdowns in the NFL on screen plays and allowed nine touchdowns on plays of four seconds or longer – the most in the league according to Cover 1’s Eric Turner. However, they were third in takeaways and were fifth-best in allowing plays of 20 yards or more.
Buffalo also held the Broncos to just 42 offensive plays in the wild card round – the least ever for a Bills playoff opponent and the least for any playoff team since 2011.
BILLS’ UPPER-ECHELON OFFENSE STILL PRODUCTIVE
For five consecutive seasons, the Bills boasted one of the NFL’s elite offenses for the first time since the K-Gun was running roughshod over the league more than 30 years ago. Led by quarterback Josh Allen’s improved processing skills both pre and post-snap, ball placement, patience within the pocket and touch on passes and a cadre of gifted pass-catchers, those factors allowed Buffalo to become one of the most feared attacks in pro football (last year Allen was ninth in passer rating and rushing touchdowns and tied for seventh in passing scores).
In 2023 the Bills were sixth in scoring, fourth in total yards, seventh in rushing and eighth in passing. They were also fifth in red zone efficiency, yet their offense performed poorly over a six-game stretch where they averaged just 20.5 points per game. It resulted in then-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey getting the boot in favor of quarterbacks coach and former Carolina Panthers play-caller Joe Brady.
Like their defensive counterparts, the Bills went through changes on this side of the ball because of age, the salary cap and a new coordinator. With Brady taking over the role full-time, the biggest philosophical question on offense for Buffalo was how to retain elements of what made them so good in the first place while adding new and fresh concepts.
Between 2018 and ‘23, Buffalo’s offense was an Erhardt-Perkins system brought in from New England by then-coordinator Brian Daboll. It was built upon concepts involving option and crossing routes from the slot, downfield routes from the outside, run-pass options (especially in the red zone), designed quarterback runs to take advantage of Allen’s mobility and alignments that created favorable matchups and some trick plays with jet/orbit motion and sweeps. It was mostly out of “11” personnel groupings (one back, one tight end and three wide receivers) and “10” personnel (one back, no tight ends, four receivers) – and they would also go no-huddle from time to time to limit the opposition’s defensive calls.
The Bills’ multi-receiver sets were traditionally their offensive calling card. In 2020 they used four wide receivers or more 155 times – the second-most in the NFL at the time – and they utilized someone in motion on 43 percent of their offensive snaps, a huge increase from their 25 percent rate in 2019. Daboll, now the head coach of the New York Giants, also called for a passing play on 64 percent of their first downs, according to ESPN Stats and Information (no team with a winning record in the prior 20 years did it more than Buffalo) and that rate continued in 2021 and ’22 with “11” personnel used on nearly three-quarters of their plays.
Daboll’s successor, Ken Dorsey, got away from some of those concepts and tried to rely on the talent at his disposal winning one-on-one matchups instead of having the scheme get them open. Once Brady was promoted, the Bills returned to them. He also included more under-center formations and play-action (which can still stand to increase after being a top-four team in run-fakes in 2020 and ’21), pre-snap shifts, motions and designed passes to running backs and route combinations with defined reads for Allen so he can play within timing and structure.
Brady got his start in the NFL working for the New Orleans Saints and then-coach Sean Payton. Payton himself came from a melting pot of a background including stints running the Erhardt-Perkins scheme for Bill Parcells in Dallas and learning the West Coast offense from Jim Fassel with the New York Giants and from Jon Gruden during their one-year stint together in Philadelphia in 1997, so Brady will bring a similar approach to the table while likely keeping some things the same in Buffalo.
Their biggest transaction on offense last year was trading the aging Stefon Diggs to Houston. Diggs (now in New England), while never a burner on the outside, was an exceptional route runner who specialized in making contested catches and operated well out of bunch and stack formations – leading him to re-write many of the Bills’ single season receiving records.
In addition to Diggs, Buffalo has let veterans like John Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty and Amari Cooper walk over the years. Many of them were productive, but nothing can last forever – hence the overhaul of the Bills’ wide receiver room.
The Payton offense is built through having big, physical targets who can get open over the middle of the field, especially on deep in-cuts, or “dig” routes. Payton has employed such players in those roles before like Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Michael Thomas and Courtland Sutton, and the drafting of Keon Coleman from Florida State last year fits the bill for Brady. Coleman, whose game evoked comparisons to Colston, Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin coming out of college, brings size and physicality to the boundary ‘X’ position with good body control and strong hands to make contested catches and has some run after the catch ability. He does need to work on his speed, quickness and ability to beat press coverage, but in time he may improve in those areas.
While not a burner at the position Coleman is accentuated by speed in the form of Curtis Samuel, a poor-man’s Mecole Hardman who can line up both in the slot and outside the numbers and take handoffs and free agent pickups Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore. Shifty pass-catcher Khalil Shakir mans the slot with his quickness, sure hands and savviness to get open versus zone coverage, Gabriel Davis has returned to the practice squad to supply depth and Tyrell Shavers could prove to be a new weapon after making the team’s active roster out of training camp.
Tight end Dawson Knox is joined by third-year man Dalton Kincaid and their diverse skillsets should allow the Bills to throw curveballs at opponents with multiple tight end sets. Kincaid lived up to the hype with 73 receptions as a rookie, the most of any first-year Bill and surpassed Pete Metzelaars for the most catches by a Bills tight end in one season. He also became the fourth rookie tight end since 1960 with 70 or more catches in a year.
The Bills’ offensive line is composed of Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern (taking over at center for the departed Mitch Morse), O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown. This crew, along with fullback Reggie Gilliam has mainly executed outside zone runs along with zone-reads, pin-and-pull concepts, traps (especially with Dawkins as the puller), counters, sweeps, split inside zone/duo and sprint draw plays sprinkled in for running back James Cook. Cook, who boasts great vision and burst, is backed up by physical second-year man Ray Davis and ex-Jet Ty Johnson brings solid receiving skills to the table.
The starting front five used to be iffy in providing push in the running game and in pass protection but has become a strength in recent years. In the past, most of the team’s rushing production came from Allen’s legs and few came from their backs – the Bills’ rushing attempts per game in 2022, 18.2, was last in the NFL but that number jumped to the highest in the NFL after Brady was promoted. In 2023 Allen was taken down just 24 times overall in 17 regular season outings, the best mark in pro football, and the team again led the league with just 14 sacks allowed last year (tied for the sixth-least since 2000).
Buffalo has also carried over their trend of using an extra offensive lineman to help in the running game. Now that Edwards has moved into the starting lineup, the sixth guy is currently Alec Anderson, and the Bills had the highest rate of offensive snaps with six linemen on the field – with most of them being called runs, and were near the top of the NFL in yards per carry and yards per play with six linemen on the field (rookie tight end Jackson Hawes, an excellent blocker and the replacement for Quintin Morris, might be used more in this regard with some “13” personnel looks).
Another area the Bills needed to clean up was protecting the ball. They used to be one the league’s sloppiest teams – Allen had 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles in 2022 and he led the NFL with 18 interceptions in ’23. Last year Allen cut down on his interception total significantly with just six – a sign of progress in this regard (Allen became the third signal caller in NFL history to start a season with 10 touchdowns and no picks through his team’s first seven games).
In fact, the Bills tied the league record for fewest turnovers in a season with just eight (with the 2019 Saints). They also became the first team ever with less than 15 sacks allowed and fewer than 15 turnovers in the same season. Buffalo ended the 2024 regular season second in points scored (the highest scoring team in franchise history) and red zone efficiency, 10th in total yards and ninth in rushing and passing and became the first team to ever have 30 passing and 30 rushing touchdowns in one season. They, along with the Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders, were also the top four teams in the NFL on fourth down conversion rate.
Cameron Johnston is the team’s new punter and kicker Tyler Bass is out for the team’s first four games due to a groin injury – meaning 41-year-old former All-Pro Matt Prater will replace him.
Last season McDermott and Brady cost themselves a win against the Texans while trying to throw three successive times within their own three-yard line with less than a minute to go and no timeouts. With Houston having all three of their timeouts, three straight runs would have forced Houston to burn them to get the ball back – meaning they wouldn’t have had one to use to stop the clock to set up a game-winning field goal, which happened.
According to ESPN, the Bills became the only team in the last 45 years to be tied or winning in the last minute of the game, inside their own five-yard line and threw three straight passes.
They also botched three situations against the Rams – declining a penalty midway through the game that likely would have forced L.A. to punt, calling a running play when trying to tie the game late (and wasting a timeout in the process) and having just nine men on the field on the final play when trying to return a punt. They’ll need to learn from these miscues going forward.
12 STATS TO MUSE OVER
· Last year Buffalo tied the franchise record for wins in a season with 13 and are 17-5 all-time at home in postseason play. They won seven games by 20-plus points (a franchise record).
· The Bills have compiled a road winning percentage of .60 (27-18) since 2020. Conversely, Buffalo has the best home record in the NFL in the same length of time – 43-9 including playoffs – and the Bills also have 14 straight home wins, the second-longest streak in team annals behind a 15-game stretch between 1990-91. They went undefeated at home last year for the first time since ’90.
· Buffalo faced eight-man boxes 32 percent of the time, the most in the NFL according to Cover 1’s Erik Turner. It’s a stark contrast to the prior four years in which they went against them 16 percent of the time in 2020 (32nd), 18.6 in ’21 (27th), 20.4 in ’22 (20th) and 19.9 in ’23 (19th).
· Buffalo hasn’t lost the turnover battle in their last 24 games – an NFL record.
· Allen has surpassed Thurman Thomas for first all-time in Bills annals in rushing touchdowns (the only other quarterback who is a team’s all-time rushing touchdown leader is Cam Newton with the Carolina Panthers). He also had 40 combined scores for the fifth straight year in 2024 – no other quarterback has done it more than three times (Drew Brees from 2011-13) – allowing him to be named the NFL’s Most Valuable Player by the Associated Press, an honor previously bestowed upon just two other Bills (Thomas in 1991 and O.J. Simpson in 1973).
· Buffalo’s quarterback is also a threat to become the first signal caller to ever rush for six scores or more in each of his first eight years in the NFL. The only other players to do so are Hall of Fame running backs Jim Brown, Marshall Faulk and LaDanian Tomlinson.
· Buffalo has a 34-16 mark in games against divisional opponents, including playoffs, since 2017 (and 24-6 since 2020, the NFL’s best divisional record in that span). Additionally, Buffalo has a 71-58 record against the Jets all-time, their best winning percentage against a divisional opponent.
· The Bills’ 16-point comeback in the fourth quarter to defeat the Baltimore Ravens last week had just a 1.1 percent chance of happening with 8:37 left in the game according to NextGenStats. It’s the most improbable comeback of the Josh Allen era.
· Prater is 24 for 25 on field goals in the last two minutes of regulation or in overtime in his career.
· According to ESPN Research, Buffalo became only the fourth team since 2000 to win after trailing by 15 points or more in the last four minutes of a game.
· Last week Allen became just the fourth reigning MVP to have four or more total touchdowns in a season opener, joining Thomas (’92), Brett Favre (’96) and Tom Brady (2011). He also can move past Joe Ferguson for second in team annals in wins by a starting quarterback – he currently has 77.
· The Bills have won four of their last five games against the Jets and three of their last four meetings have been decided by six points or less.
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