TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF BUCCANEERS-LIONS

by Tony Fiorello

TAMPA, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 15: Head coach Todd Bowles of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and head coach Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions hug after Detroit's 20-6 win at Raymond James Stadium on October 15, 2023 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Welcome to the 2023 NFL season’s Divisional Round Weekend. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the upcoming playoff games and what each team might do to emerge victorious.

One of the NFC’s divisional round games will take place at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the Detroit Lions. Here’s what you should know:

TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 17: Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) scores a touchdown and celebrates with Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) during the NFL Football match between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears on September 17, 2023 at TIAA Bank Field Stadium, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

BUCS’ OFFENSE IS TRANSITIONING

2023 (and last year) have been seasons of change for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – especially on offense. Names who have headed out the door over the last two years include Bruce Arians, Byron Leftwich, Tom Brady, Donovan Smith, Alex Cappa, Ted Larsen, Ali Marpet, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Scotty Miller, Cameron Brate and Leonard Fournette. That’s a lot of talent – some will be headed to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in a few years – and the Bucs, naturally, have had to start over on this side of the ball.

The two most important offensive figures that have arrived on Florida’s West Coast this season are coordinator Dave Canales – a former quarterbacks coach in Seattle – and signal caller Baker Mayfield. Mayfield, the first overall draft pick in 2018, had a solid start in the pros with the Cleveland Browns but eventually flamed out there. After short stints with the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams a year ago, Mayfield is now attempting to resurrect his career by the Gulf of Mexico.

Mayfield is known for being an aggressive downfield passer. According to former MMQB/SI writer Andy Benoit, “(Mayfield) extends plays with his feet, but only when necessary, relying first on his outstanding timing and accuracy, especially on seam balls and underneath throws from spread formations. More impressive are the passes Mayfield does not make; he has a veteran’s sense for getting off of bad reads. And when he does get fooled into the occasional turnover, he continues to be aggressive.”

Mayfield has answered the challenge so far by setting career-highs in completions, pass attempts, completion percentage, passing yards and touchdowns. He’s also become just the fourth quarterback ever to have three touchdowns and no interceptions in a playoff game for two different franchises, joining Brady, Brett Favre and Alex Smith. Helping him out is a pair of dangerous options in the passing game – wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, two fast and big-bodied red zone targets, are among the NFL’s best one-two punches.

In the past Evans and Godwin were used in multiple ways, but especially in three-by-one trips formations (with Evans the backside receiver) and in bunch with Godwin as the point man. Tampa liked to use these to defeat split-safety zone coverage along with high-low pass concepts and would also attack the void in between those split safeties with Godwin on a vertical route down the seam and a combination of shorter routes to attract the middle defenders and deep pass patterns on the outside to widen the other safety. They also liked play-action out of the shotgun in the red zone to influence linebackers’ run-pass keys – it remains to be seen if these still ring true. Tight end Cade Otton is a pass-catching threat and slot receiver Trey Palmer has emerged as a factor in recent weeks.

The improving Rachaad White runs behind an offensive line composed of Tristan Wirfs, Aaron Stinnie, Robert Hainsey, Cody Mauch and Luke Goedeke. Hainsey has attempted to fill the shoes of Ryan Jensen at center but has struggled to do so (Jensen has missed most of the last two years with a major knee injury) and the rest of the line beyond Wirfs has been up and down – leading to the Bucs using their tight ends and backs to help in pass protection more this year.

Tampa Bay’s offense is near the bottom of the NFL in points scored (20th), total yards (23rd), rushing yards (last) and is in the middle of the pack in passing (17th).

TAMPA, FL - NOVERMBER 12: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defensive Lineman Vita Vea (50) flexes after making a sack even though his helmet is on sideways during the regular season game between the Tennessee Titans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on November 12, 2023 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

TAMPA’S DEFENSE IS AGGRESSIVE AND COMPLEX

Head coach Todd Bowles – one of the NFL’s best defensive minds – runs a 3-4 scheme that is characterized by multiple fronts and blitzes and uses plenty of stunts and slants at the line of scrimmage to apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks. On the back end, Bowles prefers disguised coverages defined by Cover Four and Three and man-press coverage to take away quick throws and disrupt timing between wideouts and pass distributors – a stark contrast to the old “Tampa Two” zone coverage that the Buccaneers leaned on for nearly 25 years.

Like their offense, the Bucs have had a bit of a changing of the guard on defense. Gone are the likes of Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh, Steve McClendon and Jordan Whitehead, but it seems as if Bowles and company have survived these losses better than on the other side of the ball.

Tampa Bay has an excellent front-seven up front. Vita Vea is the team’s top lineman and may very well be the best 3-4 nose tackle in all of football. He is joined by Calijah Kancey and Logan Hall. Shaq Barrett and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka are a solid one-two punch at outside linebacker and have had much success as pocket disrupters throughout their careers.

Inside linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David might be the fastest pair at their positions in pro football and are excellent in coverage and blitzing. In the secondary, beyond blossoming safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. and Ryan Neal, cornerbacks Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean leave a bit to be desired – making it imperative that teams have success in getting the ball out to their playmakers on hot routes to take advantage of their aggressiveness.

The Bucs ended 2022 ninth in total defense and against the pass (an improvement over the last two years where they were 21st in passing yards given up in each of them) but fell to 15th in rushing yards surrendered after ranking in the top five in 2020 and ‘21. Middle of the pack in points allowed (13th), Tampa was tied for seventh in sacks and tied for 24th in interceptions.

It’s been more of the same this year, meaning good in certain areas and struggling in others. Seventh in points allowed and fifth against the run, Tampa is just 23rd in total yards given up and 29th versus the pass. Additionally, the Bucs were tied for seventh in sacks and tied for 12th in takeaways while starting this year 4-7 but ending the season 5-1. They’re also in the playoffs for the fourth straight year, the only NFC team to pull off the feat.

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - JANUARY 14: Sam LaPorta #87 of the Detroit Lions celebrates his touchdown with Jared Goff #16 during the second quarter against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Wild Card Playoffs at Ford Field on January 14, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

LIONS’ OFFENSE PRODUCTIVE

Before the 2021 NFL season, new general manager Brad Holmes – originally from the Los Angeles Rams – sought to instill toughness in his team by hiring Dan Campbell as Detroit’s head coach. Campbell, an 11-year NFL veteran and former tight end (not to mention an ex-Lion), has helped the Motor City’s pro franchise make progress in that area and in results on the field, as evidenced by the Lions winning their division for the first time in 30 years and winning a playoff game for the first time since 1991.

Quarterback Jared Goff, the first overall pick in the 2016 draft who came to Detroit along with Holmes in exchange for Matthew Stafford, is very good when it comes to the timing and rhythm portion of the passing game. He gets the ball out on time, has good synchronicity with his receivers, is accurate, intelligent and throws a better deep ball than people realize. However, when under pressure Goff’s footwork can get a bit sloppy and isn’t always at ease when bodies are flying around him.

Goff is also sometimes a tad late when it comes to exploiting coverages. According to USA Today’s Doug Farrar, “(Goff) throws with anticipation to a degree, but he’s often throwing guys open when they’re already open, meaning that he’s throwing them closed and allowing defensive backs to jump and pick routes. The problem gets worse when his receivers are challenged.” 

Fortunately for Goff he has a talented cadre of wideouts that execute a scheme that’s similar to the one he had with the Rams – one with plenty of play-action and downfield option routes. Amon-Ra St. Brown has cemented himself as one of the game’s better receivers while sharing targets with D.J. Chark (currently injured), Josh Reynolds and former first round pick Jameson Williams. Rookie Sam LaPorta, one of the league’s most physically gifted players at his position, has taken over as the starting tight end following the trade of T.J. Hockenson last year to the Minnesota Vikings.

A year after employing a solid running back tandem in Jamall Williams and De’Andre Swift, Detroit let the two walk in free agency and promptly replaced them with ex-Chicago Bear David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. The two are frequently used on the field at the same time (also known as a “pony” package) and are a classic thunder-and-lightning combination. Montgomery runs with power and has a nose for the end zone while Gibbs has been compared to the New Orleans Saints’ Alvin Kamara. Quick and explosive with good balance and receiving skills, Gibbs complements Montgomery well.

The two run behind an offensive line that has relied mostly on gap schemes and is anchored by three former first round picks in Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell. Guards Jonah Jackson and Graham Glasgow complete one of the NFL’s best line combinations.

Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson have led the Lions to top-five finishes on this side of the ball in back-to-back years. Third in total yards, second in passing, fifth in rushing and scoring, Detroit has certainly been dangerous offensively.

Detroit Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97) and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (2) celebrate after a play during the second half of the NFC Wild Card Playoffs between the Los Angeles Rams and the Detroit Lions in Detroit, Michigan USA, on Sunday, January 14, 2024. (Photo by Jorge Lemus/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

DETROIT’S DEFENSE NOT AS STELLAR

Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn – a former NFL cornerback for 15 years – has had his hands full in trying to turn around this unit. The Lions’ defense hasn’t performed consistently over the last couple of years and 2023 was no exception as Detroit ended the season 19th in total defense, 27th against the pass, 23rd in points allowed and sacks, and 18th in takeaways. However, they were second against the run.

It's not as if Glenn’s charges are completely bereft of talent though. Defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, a product of the nearby University of Michigan, has been a revelation in his first two NFL seasons with a combined 21 sacks (averaging 10.5 a year).

Hutchinson is joined on the team’s defensive line with Josh Paschal, Alim McNeill and Benito Jones, and the team’s top linebackers are ex-Saint Alex Anzalone, Malcom Rodriguez and Derrick Barnes (rookie Jack Campbell has also gotten playing time). On the back end, Detroit is held down by Cameron Sutton, Kindle Vindor and rookie Brian Branch at cornerback. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, one of the game’s rangiest and smartest centerfielders who can also play in the slot, holds down the fort at safety along with Kerby Joseph and Ifeatu Melifonwu.

Tony Fiorello's work has been published in numerous outlets, including Buffalo Sports Page, The Buffalo News, WNYAthletics, Bee Group Newspapers, From The 300 Level, Sports and Leisure Magazine, Community Papers of Western New York, The Niagara Gazette, The Tonawanda News, Western New York Hockey Report and Buffalo Hockey Central. Follow him on X (formerly known as Twitter) @anthonyfiorello.