TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF CHIEFS-DOLPHINS

by Tony Fiorello

Inglewood, CA - January 07: Head coach Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs looks on against the Los Angeles Chargers in the first half of a NFL football game at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood on Sunday, January 7, 2024. (Photo by Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)

Welcome to the 2023 NFL season’s Wild Card Weekend. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the upcoming playoff games and what each team might do to emerge victorious.

One of the AFC’s wild card games will take place at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri as the Miami Dolphins will face the Kansas City Chiefs. Here’s what you should know:

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - OCTOBER 8: Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs catches a pass from Patrick Mahomes #15 during an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on October 8, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

CHIEFS’ OFFENSE IS TYPICALLY DANGEROUS, BUT SLOWING A BIT

Andy Reid’s version of the West Coast offense has taken on many forms over the years. In Philadelphia his passing game with quarterbacks Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick was vertical-based to take advantage of their arm strength, conversely with Alex Smith it became conservative and horizontal.

Now with Patrick Mahomes under center it has returned to its downfield version. The system has also incorporated many college concepts in recent years and heavily relies on the design of the play to get people open. According to former MMQB/SI writer Andy Benoit, “Kansas City’s passing game is unique because it doesn’t depend on wide receivers winning one-on-one battles outside. The scheme relies on route combinations and creating opportunities for tight ends and running backs. This means the throws are more about timing than velocity.

“Reid features presnap motion, misdirection and multi-option reads. Those tactics put a defense on its heels by presenting the illusion of complexity, but they can transition into traditional concepts once the ball is snapped…. (they) aim to isolate specific defenders – often linebackers – present them with run/pass assignment conflicts and also get defenders flowing one way as the ball goes another.”

For years Kansas City employed wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who is perhaps the league’s fastest player and can line up anywhere – out wide, in the backfield and in the slot, where he is especially dangerous on post routes out of trips formations. Following a trade to the Miami Dolphins following the 2021 season, Reid and general manager Brett Veach decided to replace him by committee.

Although they don’t boast quite the same speed as Hill does, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore give the Chiefs a trio who can beat anyone vertically and all are used liberally in motion by Reid. Rookie Rashee Rice, Kadarius Toney, Justin Watson, Justyn Ross and Richie James have also gotten in on the action this year to varying degrees, and Reid also likes to give his wideouts reduced splits along the line of scrimmage to use defenders’ leverage against them and present two-way go’s. However, they have struggled this year against man coverage and are dropping passes at one of the highest rates in the NFL.

Travis Kelce, one of the best talents at his position, is versatile and can align in different ways in the formation (especially as the lone receiver on the backside in bunch – otherwise known as the boundary ‘X’ receiver). Perhaps the most athletic tight end in football, he can beat most defensive backs and linebackers on many different routes, especially on corners, sticks and crossers and is excellent at creating yards after the catch. Kelce set a record for receiving yards by a tight end with 1,416 in 2020 and continues to remain his usual elite self. Backups Noah Grey, Jody Fortson (out with an injury) and Blake Bell’s roles have expanded as Kansas City has incorporated more formations featuring multiple tight ends (a year ago they used multi-tight end packages on more than 40 percent of their snaps).

In 2020 the Chiefs invested at running back by selecting Clyde Edwards-Helaire from LSU in the first round, hoping to upgrade a position that previously relied on veterans Damien Williams and former Eagle and Bill LeSean McCoy. Edwards-Helaire, however, has been injured and ineffective for most of his career – leading to Isiah Pacheco taking over. The powerful Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon are adept at hurting teams not just on the ground but through the air as well, especially on screen passes, and McKinnon has turned into an effective red zone weapon.

Those backs and Mahomes operate behind an offensive line that has undergone many changes over the last few years. Injuries and underperformance have seen the Chiefs say goodbye to names like Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Austin Reiter, Kelechi Osemele, Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie and hello to new faces like All-Pro Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor. Smith and Taylor haven’t quite worked out so far – with the aging Smith being in and out of the lineup due to various ailments and Taylor underachieving, Reid has been keeping tight ends and backs in more to help in pass protection. Wanya Morris, who has filled in at tackle from time to time, has some physical traits (size, long arms) but is considered a project due to a lack of technique.

The widespread comparisons of Mahomes to Brett Favre aren’t unfounded, as the former possesses most of the latter’s attributes – a cannon for an arm, an uncanny ability to extend plays and good mobility and intelligence, plus a willingness to fit passes into tight windows. But he hasn’t always played the way his coaches want him to.

From time to time Mahomes, perhaps from feeling the effects of a deteriorated front-five, shows too much unnecessary movement both in and outside the pocket (due to anticipating pressure that isn’t there), sloppy footwork and doesn’t play within the timing and structure of Reid’s attack. He also sometimes doesn’t take what defenses give him coverage-wise and forces plays down the field that don’t need to be.

When this happens, Reid usually gets Mahomes to settle down by incorporating more short and intermediate concepts like “smash” and “flood” – resulting in him being more decisive and his offense becoming more rhythm-based and less vertical. His mechanics also need touching up at times – especially by holding the ball higher so he can throw quicker and fixing his lower body base.

A year ago the Chiefs’ offense was their usual lethal selves, ending 2022 first in total yards, points scored and passing, but 20th in rushing. This year they’ve fallen off a bit – 15th in points (21.8, the lowest in the Mahomes era), ninth in total yards, sixth in passing and 19th in rushing are usually not bad numbers for anyone, but given Kansas City’s lofty standards they should be better.

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 7: Chris Jones #95 of the Kansas City Chiefs in a defensive stance during a game against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on January 7, 2024 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Getty Images)

KANSAS CITY’S DEFENSE ON THE REBOUND

From 2013 through 2018 the Chiefs’ defense was conducted by Bob Sutton, a former longtime assistant with the New York Jets. During the first three seasons Sutton applied his scheme in Kansas City the Chiefs had an upper-echelon unit, but between 2016-18 it took a nosedive – bottoming out in ’18 by finishing the regular season in the bottom-half of the league in nearly every statistical category.

Reid promptly replaced Sutton with one of his old assistants from Philadelphia in Steve Spagnuolo. “Spags”, a former head coach with the Rams and Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator with the New York Giants, implemented a 4-3 system characterized by cleverly disguised five-man overload blitzes and coverages involving mainly Cover One, Two, Zero and two-deep man with press technique by the cornerbacks and the safeties rotating before the snap.

The biggest key to Kansas City’s defense used to be former Arizona Cardinal and Houston Texan Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu is one of the most versatile back-end defenders in football, as evidenced by his many snaps at slot cornerback, box safety, nickel/dime linebacker, free safety and outside cornerback. His athleticism and intelligence were valuable to the Chiefs – so valuable to the point where he was mainly used as the team’s middle hole defender in Cover Two zone and not a linebacker. But Mathieu left in free agency for the New Orleans Saints a year ago along with fellow safety Daniel Sorenson, and in their place now are ex-Texan Justin Reid (who matches up well with tight ends) and Bryan Cook (who is out for Saturday and will be replaced by Mike Edwards).

The Chiefs also underwent a makeover at cornerback. Veterans Mike Hughes, Charvarius Ward, Rashad Fenton and DeAndre Baker are gone and L’Jarius Sneed is now joined by youngsters Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson. This group is mainly used by Spagnuolo in dime packages with Sneed and Watson on the outside and McDuffie blitzing from the slot.

The Chiefs’ defensive line is the most talented part of this unit. All-Pro Chris Jones is one of the best defensive linemen in the league and is their linchpin thanks to his combination of burst and hand usage off the line of scrimmage. Derrick Nnadi, Mike Danna and George Karlaftis are the team’s other contributors in their front four and all are versatile. At linebacker Kansas City employs Nick Bolton – who is their best second-level defender – Willie Gay and Drue Tranquill. Bolton is a good run defender and Tranquill excels in zone coverage.

Over the last few years the results from Spags’ defense were uneven, ranging anywhere from great to good to mediocre in multiple categories. Although 18th against the run and 27th in takeaways, his defense this season has been sublime ranking second in points allowed (17.3, the lowest of any Reid-coached team since the 2004 Philadelphia Eagles), second in total yards given up, fourth against the pass and second in sacks. The Chiefs have also gone just 1-4 against the playoff field this year - a surprising result.

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - OCTOBER 22: Tua Tagovailoa #1 calls a play to Tyreek Hill #10 of the Miami Dolphins during the first quarter of a game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on October 22, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

MIAMI’S OFFENSE PLAYING AT A HIGH LEVEL

After winning 10 games in 2020 for just the third time since 2008, owner Stephen Ross gave general manager Chris Grier – the brother of ex-Buffalo Sabres winger Mike Grier – the authority to build the team as he and former head coach Brian Flores saw fit. However, after a nine-win campaign in 2021 Grier decided to make a coaching change and replaced Flores with San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel.

Under Flores, new faces were a constant at one area for Miami – offensive coordinator. While the basis of Flores’ philosophy stayed the same – using the Erhardt-Perkins concepts that his former employer, the New England Patriots, have based their passing game around for more than 20 years – the man calling the plays changed in all three of Flores’ seasons in South Beach. After trying out Chad O’Shea and Chan Gailey in 2019 and ’20, Flores decided to promote then-tight ends coach George Godsey (a former offensive coordinator with the Houston Texans) and running backs coach Eric Studesville to passing game and running game coordinator, respectively. Neither panned out.

In contrast, McDaniel – a longtime protégé of Mike and Kyle Shanahan – has brought their version of the West Coast offense to South Beach. The system is very creative in its ability to attack matchups and utilizes a lot of play-action passes, bootlegs and rollouts designed around the threat of outside-zone runs.

The Dolphins’ running philosophy relies on a mobile offensive line that pushes defenders from sideline to sideline on “stretch” runs that encourages its tailbacks to find holes on the opposite side of the play’s direction and cut back against the grain. Executing these blocks are former All-Pro Terron Armstead, Isaiah Wynn, Connor Williams (both out with injuries and replaced by Liam Eichenberg and Lester Cotton), Austin Jackson and Robert Hunt, versatile fullback Alec Ingold and tight end Durham Smythe, and have allowed the fifth-fewest sacks in the NFL despite fielding 11 different combinations this year.

While the outside/wide zone is the team’s foundational run, McDaniel will also use power plays, traps, sweeps and counters as a changeup tactic and will throw in some misdirection concepts like end-arounds and reverses as well. These are usually carried out by speed threats Raheem Mostert (who has had knee and ankle issues in 2023), Jeff Wilson Jr. and De’Von Achane. This system has made many a star out of running backs for decades and most of Miami’s runs are executed out of “21” personnel (two backs, one tight end).

The reason why the Shanahan coaching tree likes to have two running backs on the field most of the time is to give credibility to the belief that they will call a running play at any time while also taking advantage of smaller defenders who are used to being on the field to stop the pass and forcing the opposition to use more basic coverages. According to former MMQB/SI writer Andy Benoit, “Shanahan plays with two backs more than any schemer, by a wide margin…. with two backs in, the Niners compel defenses to prepare for more run possibilities, which limits their options in coverages. Shanahan exploits the suddenly predictable coverages through route combinations or mismatch-making formation wrinkles.”

Wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are similar receivers – each are polished route runners, have good hands and speed to burn, and are adept at picking up yards after the catch, especially on in-breaking routes. They can also return punts in a pinch and are liberally used by McDaniel in jet and orbit motion to influence defenders’ responsibilities and create leverage and space. Hill and Waddle are also dangerous ballcarriers and will sometimes line up at running back. They are backed up by Braxton Berrios, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Robbie Anderson, Chase Claypool and River Cracraft.

Hill is perhaps the league’s fastest player and can line up anywhere – out wide, in the backfield and in the slot, where he is especially dangerous on post routes out of trips formations. The “Cheetah”, as he’s sometimes known, broke Mark Clayton’s single-season franchise record for receiving yards a year ago and he and Waddle (who has dealt with an ankle ailment) were the only two wideouts on the same team to each have over 1,300 yards in 2022. Hill was also on pace to break the NFL’s single-season record for yardage this year before an injury a few weeks ago – their speed dissuades the opposition from using single-high coverages against them.

Like his colleagues, McDaniel will have his wide receivers, running backs and tight ends line up in unusual places in the formation to determine if defenses are playing man or zone coverage and will have his wide receivers stay inside the numbers to give them extra room to run routes and to serve as additional blockers. His scheme makes excellent use of shifts and motions, especially to create false reads and favorable angles in the running game, and the receivers’ pass patterns work well off one another with many intersecting routes at all three levels.

At the helm of this attack is signal caller Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa, a rhythmic, precision passer and 2020’s fifth-overall draft pick out of Alabama, has most of his passing concepts come in the form of short and intermediate plays to play to his strengths as an intelligent passer who can get the ball out on time and to hide his limitations – particularly an arm that isn’t one of the league’s strongest, and he also isn’t comfortable going to his second and third reads in pass progressions. Nevertheless he finished first in the NFL in passing yards.

After performing well a year ago, Miami’s offense has become one of the league’s best.

Earlier this year the Dolphins had a 70-point, 700-yard performance against the Denver Broncos (becoming the first team ever to put up both numbers in one game, the first to score 70 in a game since 1966 and just the fourth team ever to score 70 in a game) and are second in points, first in passing and total yards and sixth in rushing. However they’ve shown to have one crucial weakness – while they are excellent in their 3x1 (three wideouts on one side, one on the other) formations, they can be predictable in 2x2 (two on each side, they love to use play-action in this set and zone runs compared to gap runs in 3x1s – for more info, read this: What a difference one change in alignment makes for the Dolphins - Sports Info Solutions).

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - DECEMBER 17: Miami Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey (5) covers a receiver as he defends during the game between the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, December 17, 2023 at Hard Rock Stadium, Hard Rock Stadium, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

DOLPHINS’ DEFENSE HAS A SWITCH IN PHILOSOPHY

Former defensive coordinator Josh Boyer, who worked with Flores in New England, favored playing lots of Cover One – man coverage with a single-high safety over the top – and occasionally mixed in some Cover Three concepts (deep zone coverage on the outside with a safety in the box and a deep safety patrolling centerfield). He also loved to blitz, sending extra rushers at quarterbacks out of multiple defensive fronts and sometimes zone-blitzed on third-down with a lot of disguise and late movement by their defensive backs at the snap.

These schemes allowed the Dolphins to be among the NFL’s leaders in takeaways and turnover margin in 2020. Miami went from dead-last in points allowed per game to among the best and were also among the league leaders in third-down and red zone defense. However, underperformance – especially in their pass rush – and injuries at cornerback set the Dolphins back severely, forcing Boyer to rely on zone coverage more and not blitz as much. Consequently, the team dropped to the bottom of the league in almost every statistical category, and they stayed there in 2022.

Something had to be done, so McDaniel let Boyer go and replaced him with one of the NFL’s best defensive minds in Vic Fangio, a onetime protégé of Dom Capers and Jim Mora. Having built dominant units in San Francisco and Chicago in recent years, Fangio finally got his long-awaited shot at being a head coach in Denver in 2019 but his tenure there didn’t go as planned. Now after spending last season as a consultant to the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles, Fangio is back running his own unit.

Unlike Boyer, Fangio doesn’t blitz much. Relying on three and four-man pass rushes with stunts, twists and slants and two-deep safety looks often, he heavily employs well-disguised hybrid coverages that feature man and zone concepts – especially Cover Four, or “quarters”, with each defensive back dividing the field into fourths and matchup principles to take away vertical concepts. While the Dolphins are a base 3-4, he will also mix in 5-2 fronts to stop the run and dime personnel versus the pass, and he does a great job with safety and coverage rotations in long passing situations.

This approach has been gaining in popularity in recent years throughout the NFL. According to Smart Football’s Chris B. Brown, “It’s the most important defensive scheme of the past decade…. At first glance, Cover 4 looks like an anti-pass prevent tactic, with four secondary defenders playing deep. But therein lies its magic. The four defenders are actually playing a matchup zone concept, in which the safety reads the tight end or inside receiver. If an offensive player lined up inside releases on a short pass route or doesn’t release into the route, the safety can help double-team the outside receiver. If the inside receiver breaks straight downfield, it becomes more like man coverage.

“This variance keeps quarterbacks guessing and prevents defenses from being exploited by common pass plays like four verticals, which killed eight-man fronts. The real key to Cover 4, however, is that against the run both safeties become rush defenders (remember, the outside cornerbacks play deep). This allows defenses to play nine men in the box against the run – a hat-tip to the 46’s overwhelming force.”

Miami is led in their secondary by cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and the injured Xavien Howard (replaced by Kayden Kohou and Eli Apple), and when healthy are one of the better outside corner pairs in the league. Nik Needham normally mans the slot and the team’s starting safeties are DeShon Eliott and Jevon Holland.

At linebacker the Dolphins employ David Long, Andrew Van Ginkel, Jerome Baker, Melvin Ingram, Duke Riley, Justin Houston, Bruce Irvin, Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips (Chubb, their sack leader, Phillips, Van Ginkel and Baker are out this weekend due to injury), and their defensive linemen are Emmanuel Ogbah, Raekwon Davis and the underrated Christian Wilkins. Zach Sieler has also earned playing time recently.

Miami’s defense has adapted to Fangio’s new scheme well. They are 10th in total yards given up, 15th versus the pass, eighth in takeaways, seventh against the run and third in sacks. But they’re 22nd in points allowed, and the Dolphins ended 2023 with a 1-5 record against playoff teams with a -91 point differential against such opponents - only the New York Giants and Washington Commanders were worse.