TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF EAGLES-BUCCANEERS

by Tony Fiorello

TAMPA, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 25: Head coach Nick Sirianni of the Philadelphia Eagles and head coach Todd Bowles of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers talk after their game at Raymond James Stadium on September 25, 2023 in Tampa, Florida. The Eagles defeated the Buccaneers by a score of 25-11. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Welcome to the 2023 NFL season’s Wild Card Weekend. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the upcoming playoff games and what each team might do to emerge victorious.

One of the NFC’s wild card games will take place at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida as the Philadelphia Eagles will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Here’s what you should know:

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 08: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles in a huddle in front of Dallas Goedert #88and Lane Johnson #65 during a 23-14 win over the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium on October 08, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

EAGLES’ OFFENSE A DUAL THREAT

After Doug Pederson brought a Super Bowl championship to Philadelphia in 2017, things began to sour rather quickly in the City of Brotherly Love. Following a deterioration of talent thanks to age, free agency and the salary cap, general manager Howie Roseman let go of Pederson and hired his replacement in former Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni.

Sirianni, who worked for Pederson’s championship-winning offensive coordinator in Frank Reich, has brought a similar system to the Eagles. Pederson offense’s – a chip off the old block from his mentor, former Eagles coach Andy Reid – is a West Coast-style unit that is built off misdirection concepts, quick underneath throws (especially on slant-flat concepts), screens, bootlegs, run-pass options and occasional downfield route combinations – mostly outside the numbers. Philadelphia also rarely utilizes formations from under center – except for their patented “Tush Push” play, their famous (or infamous) version of a quarterback sneak – and have increased their number of “empty” sets to spread the field and make easier reads in the passing game.

While Sirianni does subscribe to those approaches, he has put his own twist on them by getting the ball to his running backs often in both the passing and running game. One of the league’s most patient ball carriers in D’Andre Swift and backups Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell have been the biggest beneficiaries of this approach as they finished fifth in the NFL in rushing in 2022 one year after they paced the league. This season they were eighth in that category.

Helping them in that department has been quarterback Jalen Hurts. Hurts, a product of Oklahoma, has utilized his mobility on several types of read option plays with zone, power and counter concepts built into them and capitalized by rushing for 13 touchdowns last year, which broke his own franchise single-season record for a quarterback that he set a year prior. This season he had 15 (breaking his own record again) while becoming the first signal-caller with three straight seasons with 10 or more touchdowns on the ground.

Hurts also has a strong arm and his accuracy, ability to identify coverages and decision-making post-snap has grown by leaps and bounds while executing a passing game that Sirianni has highly schemed for him with defined primary reads. It’s also helped that Hurts has played in the same system in consecutive years for the first time since high school, and he responded in 2023 by setting career-highs in passing attempts, completions, passing yards and touchdowns. But Hurts has developed a habit of looking at the opposing pass rush too much and bailing out of the pocket prematurely, and he also threw eight interceptions against the blitz – the most in the NFL.

To accelerate his growth, a year ago Roseman acquired one of pro football’s most physical wide receivers in A.J. Brown from the Tennessee Titans. Brown, perhaps the Eagles’ best pass-catching threat since Terrell Owens, responded with career-best marks in receptions (which he’s surpassed this year) and yards while tying his four-year high in touchdowns with 11 and performs well out of high-low concepts. But he’s out for Monday night’s game with a knee injury.

The Eagles have depth behind Brown too. Their pass targets include one of the best tight ends in the NFL in Dallas Goedert, a deep threat in DeVonta Smith and reserves Quez Watkins and Julio Jones have also gotten in on the action.

Blocking for Hurts and his cohorts are All-Pros Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson, Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens (replacing the departed Issac Seumalo). This offensive line is one of the best in the NFL thanks to the development prowess of position coach Jeff Stoutland and can execute most rushing concepts (gap schemes, duo, inside zone outside zone etc.).

Beyond their rushing accolades, the Eagles were also ninth in the league in passing yards and third in scoring. Those numbers have dipped a bit to 16th and seventh, respectively.

PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 14: Josh Sweat #94 of the Philadelphia Eagles talks with Haason Reddick #7 and Fletcher Cox during an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings at Lincoln Financial Field on September 14, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

PHILLY DEFENSE, GREAT A YEAR AGO, STILL TALENTED BUT SLIPPING

Last year’s defensive play-caller, Jonathan Gannon, is now in Arizona as head coach of the Cardinals and has been replaced by former Chicago Bears coordinator Sean Desai. Both are avid fans of longtime defensive guru Vic Fangio (a consultant for the Eagles last season), and Gannon took Fangio’s approach and got impressive results with them.

Like Fangio and Gannon, Desai doesn’t like to blitz much. Relying on a four-man pass rush with stunts, twists and slants and two-deep safety looks often, he heavily employs well-disguised hybrid coverages that feature man and zone concepts – especially Cover Four, or “quarters”, with each defensive back dividing the field into fourths and matchup principles to take away vertical concepts (although their usage of man has gone up this year).

This approach has been gaining in popularity in recent years throughout the NFL. According to Smart Football’s Chris B. Brown, “It’s the most important defensive scheme of the past decade…. At first glance, Cover 4 looks like an anti-pass prevent tactic, with four secondary defenders playing deep. But therein lies its magic. The four defenders are actually playing a matchup zone concept, in which the safety reads the tight end or inside receiver. If an offensive player lined up inside releases on a short pass route or doesn’t release into the route, the safety can help double-team the outside receiver. If the inside receiver breaks straight downfield, it becomes more like man coverage. This variance keeps quarterbacks guessing and prevents defenses from being exploited by common pass plays like four verticals, which killed eight-man fronts. The real key to Cover 4, however, is that against the run both safeties become rush defenders (remember, the outside cornerbacks play deep). This allows defenses to play nine men in the box against the run – a hat-tip to the 46’s overwhelming force.”

A year after struggling in many statistical categories, the Eagles saw a quick turnaround. Although they were just 17th versus the run, they ended 2022 second in total yards given up, first against the pass, eighth in points allowed, tied for fourth in takeaways and were first in sacks with an eye-popping 70 – 15 more than the second-closest team (Kansas City). In fact, Philadelphia became just the fourth team ever to reach 70 sacks in a season – along with the 1984 and ’87 Bears and ’89 Minnesota Vikings – and were just three away from breaking the ’84 Bears’ all-time record.

To have success this way, you need to get pressure from a defensive line that has depth and talent. Which the Eagles have in spades, allowing them to use a 5-2 front at the line of scrimmage (a departure from most teams who use a four or three-man unit). In what might be the deepest pass-rushing line in football, Gannon can trot out former All-Pro Fletcher Cox, Haason Reddick, Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat, Jordan Davis, Milton Williams and rookies Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith on every snap (a year ago, this group also included Linval Joseph, Derek Barnett, Javon Hargrave, Ndamukong Suh and Robert Quinn). However, their technique when it comes to defending the run can be sloppy at times.

The Eagles have seen the most change on their team at the second and third levels of their defense. A year ago, safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (one of the game’s rangiest and smartest centerfielders and slot defenders) held down the back end along with Marcus Epps. The two have since left via free agency and were initially replaced by Reed Blankenship and Sydney Brown, but because of their struggles Roseman traded for ex-Tennessee Titan Kevin Byard, who is adept at covering tight ends.

Cornerbacks Darius Slay, James Bradberry and Avonte Maddox are typically one of, if not the best trio of cornerbacks in the NFL. That’s changed this season as Maddox is out for the remainder of the year with an injury (his replacement is veteran Bradley Roby) and Bradberry seems to be declining, especially in man coverage. Zach Cunningham and Nick Morrow are Philadelphia’s linebackers, stepping in for the departed T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White. They also struggle against 3x1 alignments (three receivers to a side and one on another).

So far in 2023 the Eagles’ defense has fallen off a cliff. While 10th against the run, they’re just 19th in sacks, 26th in total yards surrendered and second-last against the pass. They’re also tied for 23rd in takeaways this year. Philadelphia has also lost five of their last six games after starting this season 10-1 – leading to Desai being reassigned and Matt Patricia taking over play-calling duties.

TAMPA, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 24: Mike Evans #13 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is congratulated by Chris Godwin #14 after scoring a touchdown reception against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium on December 24, 2023 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

BUCS’ OFFENSE IS TRANSITIONING

2023 (and last year) have been seasons of change for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – especially on offense. Names who have headed out the door over the last two years include Bruce Arians, Byron Leftwich, Tom Brady, Donovan Smith, Alex Cappa, Ted Larsen, Ali Marpet, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Scotty Miller, Cameron Brate and Leonard Fournette. That’s a lot of talent – some will be headed to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in a few years – and the Bucs, naturally, have had to start over on this side of the ball.

The two most important offensive figures that have arrived on Florida’s West Coast this season are coordinator Dave Canales – a former quarterbacks coach in Seattle – and signal caller Baker Mayfield. Mayfield, the first overall draft pick in 2018, had a solid start in the pros with the Cleveland Browns but eventually flamed out there. After short stints with the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams a year ago, Mayfield is now attempting to resurrect his career by the Gulf of Mexico.

Mayfield is known for being an aggressive downfield passer. According to former MMQB/SI writer Andy Benoit, “(Mayfield) extends plays with his feet, but only when necessary, relying first on his outstanding timing and accuracy, especially on seam balls and underneath throws from spread formations. More impressive are the passes Mayfield does not make; he has a veteran’s sense for getting off of bad reads. And when he does get fooled into the occasional turnover, he continues to be aggressive.”

Helping Mayfield out is a pair of dangerous options in the passing game. Wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – two fast and big-bodied red zone targets – are among the NFL’s best one-two punches.

In the past Evans and Godwin were used in multiple ways, but especially in three-by-one trips formations (with Evans the backside receiver) and in bunch with Godwin as the point man. Tampa liked to use these to defeat split-safety zone coverage along with high-low pass concepts and would  also attack the void in between those split safeties with Godwin on a vertical route down the seam and a combination of shorter routes to attract the middle defenders and deep pass patterns on the outside to widen the other safety. They also liked play-action out of the shotgun in the red zone to influence linebackers’ run-pass keys – it remains to be seen if these still ring true. Tight end Cade Otton is a pass-catching threat.

The improving Rachaad White runs behind an offensive line composed of Tristan Wirfs, Aaron Stinnie, Robert Hainsey, Cody Mauch and Luke Goedeke. Hainsey has attempted to fill the shoes of Ryan Jensen at center but has struggled to do so (Jensen has missed most of the last two years with a major knee injury) and the rest of the line beyond Wirfs has been up and down – leading to the Bucs using their tight ends and backs to help in pass protection more this year.

Tampa Bay’s offense is near the bottom of the NFL in points scored (20th), total yards (23rd), rushing yards (last) and is in the middle of the pack in passing (17th).

TAMPA, FL - NOVERMBER 12: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (31) far right celebrates an interception with Linebackers Devin White (45) and Lavonte David (54) during the regular season game between the Tennessee Titans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on November 12, 2023 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

TAMPA’S DEFENSE IS AGGRESSIVE AND COMPLEX

Head coach Todd Bowles – one of the NFL’s best defensive minds – runs a 3-4 scheme that is characterized by multiple fronts and blitzes and uses plenty of stunts and slants at the line of scrimmage to apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks. On the back end, Bowles prefers disguised coverages defined by Cover Four and Three and man-press coverage to take away quick throws and disrupt timing between wideouts and pass distributors – a stark contrast to the old “Tampa Two” zone coverage that the Buccaneers leaned on for nearly 25 years.

Like their offense, the Bucs have had a bit of a changing of the guard on defense. Gone are the likes of Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh, Steve McClendon and Jordan Whitehead, but it seems as if Bowles and company have survived these losses better than on the other side of the ball.

Tampa Bay has an excellent front-seven up front. Vita Vea is the team’s top lineman and may very well be the best 3-4 nose tackle in all of football. Shaq Barrett and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka are a solid one-two punch at outside linebacker and have had much success as pocket disrupters throughout their careers.

Inside linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David might be the fastest pair at their positions in pro football (David is the better of the two in pass coverage though) and are excellent blitzers. In the secondary, beyond blossoming safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. and Ryan Neal, cornerbacks Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean leave a bit to be desired – making it imperative that teams have success in getting the ball out to their playmakers on hot routes to take advantage of their aggressiveness.

The Bucs ended 2022 ninth in total defense and against the pass (an improvement over the last two years where they were 21st in passing yards given up in each of them) but fell to 15th in rushing yards surrendered after ranking in the top five in 2020 and ‘21. Middle of the pack in points allowed (13th), Tampa was tied for seventh in sacks and tied for 24th in interceptions.

It’s been more of the same this year, meaning good in certain areas and struggling in others. Seventh in points allowed and fifth against the run, Tampa is just 23rd in total yards given up and 29th versus the pass. Additionally, the Bucs were tied for seventh in sacks and tied for 12th in takeaways while starting this year 4-7 but ending the season 5-1. They’re also in the playoffs for the fourth straight year, the only NFC team to pull off the feat.