TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF PACKERS-49ERS

by Tony Fiorello

SANTA CLARA, CA - SEPTEMBER 26: Head Coach Matt LaFleur of the Green Bay Packers and Head Coach Kyle Shanahan of the San Francisco 49ers shake hands on the field after the game at Levi's Stadium on September 26, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. The Packers defeated the 49ers 30-28. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

Welcome to the 2023 NFL season’s Divisional Round Weekend. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the upcoming playoff games and what each team might do to emerge victorious.

One of the NFC’s divisional round games will take place at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California as the Green Bay Packers will face the San Francisco 49ers. Here’s what you should know:

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 25: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates with Christian McCaffrey #23 of the San Francisco 49ers during an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens at Levi's Stadium on December 25, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ryan Kang/Getty Images)

49ERS’ OFFENSE DEADLY

Like his father Mike before him, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan relies on an offense that is West Coast-based in its passing game and is very creative in its ability to attack matchups. It also utilizes a lot of play-action passes, bootlegs and rollouts designed around the threat of outside-zone runs and he has rode this approach to three conference championship game appearances and an NFC title in 2019.

The 49ers’ philosophy relies on a mobile offensive line that pushes defenders from sideline to sideline on “stretch” runs that encourages its tailbacks to find holes on the opposite side of the play’s direction and cut back against the grain. Executing these blocks are All-Pro Trent Williams (one of the NFL’s most agile left tackles who excels at getting out on the perimeter on screens), Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel, Spencer Burford, Colton McKivitz and versatile fullback Kyle Juszczyk.

While the outside/wide zone is the team’s foundational run, Shanahan will also use power plays, traps, sweeps and counters as a changeup tactic and will throw in some misdirection concepts like end-arounds and reverses as well. This system has made many a star out of running backs for decades and most of San Francisco’s runs are executed out of “21” personnel (two backs, one tight end).

The reason why the 49ers like to have two running backs on the field most of the time is to give credibility to the belief that they will call a running play at any time while also taking advantage of smaller defenders who are used to being on the field to stop the pass and creating more vanilla coverages. According to former MMQB/SI writer Andy Benoit, “Shanahan plays with two backs more than any schemer, by a wide margin…. with two backs in, the Niners compel defenses to prepare for more run possibilities, which limits their options in coverages. Shanahan exploits the suddenly predictable coverages through route combinations or mismatch-making formation wrinkles.”

In years past these concepts by the Bay were usually carried out by veterans like Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr. and Matt Breida, but neither of these backs had the ability to affect defensive gameplans both on the ground and through the air. Enter former Carolina Panther Christian McCaffrey, who four years ago became just the third back in NFL annals to have both 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season (Marshall Faulk and Roger Craig are the others). Acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for draft pick compensation, the explosive McCaffrey is arguably the most talented running back either Shanahan has ever had play in this scheme, and he and speedy backup Elijah Mitchell have wreaked havoc for the 49ers.

In the past, the guy handing the ball off to them was quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Yet he was rarely healthy or consistent, prompting Shanahan to draft the physically gifted but raw Trey Lance from North Dakota State in 2021. Neither panned out and were surpassed on the depth chart by Brock Purdy.

A seventh-round pick last year out of Iowa State (and 2022’s “Mr. Irrelevant” aka the last selection of the draft), Purdy has become a revelation. While not possessing great physical traits, Purdy is mobile, accurate and understands how to manipulate defenders in pass coverage. He also processes coverages quickly and has good anticipation.

San Francisco’s weapons in the passing game are dangerous. Four-time All-Pro tight end George Kittle is one of the league’s best at his position and is dominant both in the receiving game and at the point of attack. Speedsters Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are similar receivers – each are polished route runners, have good hands and are adept at picking up yards after the catch, especially on in-breaking routes. They also are liberally used by Shanahan in jet and orbit motion to influence defenders’ responsibilities, and Samuel is a dangerous ball carrier on reverses and end-arounds. He will also sometimes line up at running back (backups Jauan Jennings and Ray-Ray McCloud III sometimes get in on the action as well).

Similar to his predecessors, Shanahan will have his wide receivers, running backs and tight ends line up in unusual places in the formation to determine if defenses are playing man or zone coverage and will have his wide receivers stay inside the numbers to give them additional space to run routes and to serve as additional blockers. His scheme makes excellent use of shifts and motions (especially to create false reads and favorable angles in the running game) and the receivers’ pass patterns work well off one another with many intersecting routes at all three levels.

As per usual, San Francisco had good production in 2023. They finished the regular season second in total yards, fourth in passing, and third in rushing and scoring. Additionally, they were among the league’s best in allowing sacks (tied for sixth).

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - DECEMBER 17: Nick Bosa #97 and Fred Warner #54 of the San Francisco 49ers run in action during a game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Robin Alam/ISI Photos/Getty Images)

SAN FRANCISCO’S DEFENSE EVOLVING

When Shanahan was hired by San Francisco he brought in Robert Saleh, a longtime protégé of Gus Bradley, as his defensive coordinator. Bradley was one of the original architects (along with Dan Quinn and Pete Carroll) of the Seattle Seahawks’ fabled Cover Three zone defensive scheme which they employed en route to back-to-back NFC championships and a Super Bowl title between 2013-14.

Saleh has since become the head honcho of the New York Jets and his protégé, DeMeco Ryans, also parlayed success running San Francisco’s defense into a head coaching job with the Houston Texans. Their successor is the well-traveled Steve Wilks, who has kept the 49ers’ system intact but has put his own spin on the team’s playbook. Their base coverage remains Cover Three – with deep zone coverage from the outside cornerbacks, one safety patrolling centerfield and another near the line of scrimmage – but they have mixed in more split safety concepts like Two, Four, Six and Two-Man Under to not get beaten by deep crossing patterns.

The prototype for Cover Three-style corners has been for them to have length and an ability to excel in press coverage – so the 49ers have made sure that three corners on their roster (Charvarius Ward, Isaiah Oliver and Ambry Thomas) are at least 6’0”. Deommodore Lenoir is the starter opposite Ward, and Ward has become one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL. Tashaun Gipson, Ji’Ayir Brown and the injured Talanoa Hufanga are the starters at safety.

The 49ers have an excellent pair of linebackers for their nickel packages in underrated sideline-to-sideline playmaker Dre Greenlaw and one of the league’s best second-level defenders in the speedy Fred Warner. In front of them is one of the NFL’s elite and deepest defensive lines made up of Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw, Javon Hargrave, Chase Young, Randy Gregory and the injured Clelin Ferrell.

The linemen are adept at controlling one or two gaps when defending the run, and Wilks – like Saleh and Ryans before him – uses one or two of his linemen to two-gap while the rest of the front seven will control just one, which eliminates any potential holes for opposing running backs to go through. Wilks will also have his linemen liberally execute stunts, twists and slants to open up one-on-one opportunities in pass rush situations and especially out of five-man tilted fronts.

The 49ers ended 2023 eighth in total yards given up, third against the run, 14th versus the pass and third in points allowed (not to mention tied for seventh in sacks and tied for fifth in takeaways).

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - JANUARY 14: Jordan Love #10 of the Green Bay Packers hands the ball off to Aaron Jones #33 of the Green Bay Packers during an NFL wild-card playoff football game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers at AT&T Stadium on January 14, 2024 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

PACKERS’ OFFENSE TALENTED, BUT VERY YOUNG

After 13 years, four trips to the NFC Championship Game and a Super Bowl victory in 2010, longtime Packers coach Mike McCarthy was let go by Green Bay after 2018. A sense of staleness had grown around the franchise and general manager Brian Gutekunst sought to revive his team with new blood in the form of Matt LaFleur, who has taken “Titletown” to a pair of conference championship game appearances.

The fifth-year head coach was the Tennessee Titans’ play-caller in 2018, and prior to his time in the Music City LaFleur ran Sean McVay’s offense for the Los Angeles Rams. McVay and LaFleur go back even further than that too, with both spending time working for Mike Shanahan in Washington and LaFleur also served on the staffs of his pupils – Gary Kubiak in Houston and Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta.

Like his former colleagues, LaFleur has used a playbook that emphasizes a running game built around zone-blocking (especially to the outside on “stretch” plays) and passes that are created off the threat of run-action. It’s a West Coast-style of offense that can create a lot of big plays down the field from craftily designed routes that work off one another, and the skill position players often line up in reduced splits to the line of scrimmage to become both extra blockers on runs and to have more room to run routes on the field. Additionally, unlike McCarthy’s matchup-based system, LaFleur’s playbook relies more on the design of his plays and the progressions of the quarterback – and it’s taken well to this roster.

For the first four years of the LaFleur regime, the Packers’ offense continued to run through quarterback Aaron Rodgers. That partnership, however, is no more after Rodgers (like his predecessor, Brett Favre) was traded to the New York Jets in the spring for draft pick compensation. Waiting in the wings was first-year starter Jordan Love, who had some big shoes to fill after a combined 31 years of Hall of Fame excellence preceded him under center.

Similar to Rodgers, who also had to wait three years before he got his shot to replace Favre, Love has excelled after taking over as Green Bay’s starting quarterback with his accuracy and touch while remaining an aggressive downfield thrower. After a rough first half of 2023 with just 14 touchdowns and 10 picks in nine games, Love threw for 18 touchdowns and just one interception in his last eight regular season starts – finishing the campaign with 32 scores and 11 picks while completing 64.2 percent of his throws. He also showed off his athleticism while finding paydirt four times when rushing.

For the last several years, Rodgers and Love’s wide receivers included an extraordinary route runner in Davante Adams (who is especially adept on double moves and was a favorite target on third down), Marques Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, and all could carry out Green Bay’s favorite routes. Slants, posts and back-shoulder fades are staples of the Packers’ offense, and not only do they excel at such pass-patterns but they also had a great feel for how to get open when plays break down – especially Adams, who could also play in the slot.

However, following a trade of Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders and Valdes-Scantling bringing his speed to Kansas City via free agency, the Packers decided to rebuild this group. Second-year man Romeo Doubs and rookies Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks have stepped up in the absence of Christian Watson, who followed up a solid rookie year with an injury-plagued second season. When healthy Watson provides speed, physicality and good route-running ability. Green Bay’s tight ends also occasionally get in on the action – especially in the red zone – and those duties fall to rookies Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave.

The Packers also boast threats on the ground. Aaron Jones is Green Bay’s starter in the backfield and is adept both on the ground with three 1,000-yard rushing seasons under his belt and through the air, as evidenced by his setting career-highs in receptions (59) a year ago. His backup, the powerful A.J. Dillon, can also get the job done.

Executing blocks for Jones and company are veterans David Bakhtiari – one of the best left tackles at the professional level when healthy – 2020 Pro Bowler Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers and youngsters Jon Runyan and Zach Tom. Bakhtiari, however, is once again injured, and has been replaced by Rasheed Walker.

The Packers, the youngest team in the NFL in terms of average age (25.13 years, the fifth-youngest team ever to reach the postseason), ended 2023 11th in total offense, 12th in passing and scoring, and 15th in rushing. They also allowed the third-least amount of sacks, only Buffalo and Kansas City surrendered less.

ARLINGTON, TX - JANUARY 14: Jaire Alexander #23 of the Green Bay Packers makes an interception during an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on January 14, 2024 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)

GREEN BAY’S DEFENSE IS SOUND, BUT HAVING ISSUES

Coordinator Joe Barry – a former defensive play caller in Detroit and Washington – was hired by LaFleur two years ago in hopes of bringing a different approach than Mike Pettine once did. While Pettine was a fan of overload blitzes, exotic pressure schemes and man-press coverage, Barry mainly incorporates four-man rushes and zone coverages with two deep safeties – mainly Cover Two and Four (although he’s mixed in more single-high looks recently).

The defensive backs that are integral to Barry’s secondary are All-Pro Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes (who has dealt with a hamstring injury all season), Carrington Valentine, Corey Ballentine and Keisean Nixon at cornerback and a pair of versatile safeties in Darnell Savage and Jonathan Owens. The team’s depth on the back end is imperative to the team, as Green Bay loves to use subpackages (especially dime, 4-2 and 5-1 nickel).

Rashan Gary and Preston Smith are one of the better pass rush duos in the NFL when healthy. Joining them at linebacker are the speedy De’Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker. Kenny Clark, who is very athletic for his 315-pound frame, Devonte Wyatt and T.J. Slaton are Green Bay’s best defensive linemen.

2023 saw the Packers give up the 17th-most total yards, the ninth-least amount of passing yards, and they were 10th in points allowed. But they were the fifth-worst team against the run, 16th in sacks and just 23rd in takeaways.

This game will be the 10th time that Green Bay and San Francisco have gone against one another in the playoffs – the most postseason matchups between two teams in NFL history – and all have come since 1995. While the Packers won four of the first five showdowns, the 49ers have won the last four in a row (tied for the second-most is Packers-Dallas Cowboys, 49ers-Cowboys and Cowboys-Rams with nine).